The decision of the U.S. to withdraw part of its troops from Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia in December 2025 constitutes a significant strategic step in the restructuring of American military presence in Europe, while NATO prepares for a potential conflict with Russia.
This move is part of a broader policy of “measured” troop withdrawal, aimed at enhancing strategic mobility and saving resources. At the same time, the fact that Washington is reducing troop numbers in Romania as well raises serious concerns about the broader U.S. strategy in the region and its position regarding the war in Ukraine.
Strategic objectives of the U.S. decision
The withdrawal of American forces from Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovakia, according to the Pentagon’s announcement, is based on the assessment that the military forces of these European countries have significantly upgraded their capabilities to counter potential threats from Russia and other external adversaries.
In this way, Washington emphasizes its strategy of resource optimization, insisting that European allies are now capable of taking the initiative in their own defense.
U.S. President Donald Trump, while reviewing U.S. strategy on the global stage, points out that this decision does not signify America’s withdrawal from NATO, but rather the strengthening of Europeans’ ability to assume responsibility for their own defense.
However, this move has caused concerns regarding Washington’s strategy for Ukraine and the potential implications for its relationship with Russia.
The relationship with Ukraine and U.S. policy
The decision to reduce American military forces in Eastern Europe and to shift America’s strategic weight toward Latin America and the Pacific region raises questions about a potential change in U.S. stance toward Ukraine.
Significant U.S. forces are already positioned off the coast of Venezuela.
According to reports, including one from Fox News, the U.S. appears less willing to provide support to Ukraine or to press for an end to the conflict in the region.
Trump’s shift in rhetoric on Ukraine, delays in military aid, inconsistencies regarding the provision of Tomahawk missiles, and the reduction of public support for the Ukrainian government indicate a clear divergence from previous policy.
Analysts argue that this shift likely reflects Washington’s desire to reduce expenditures on supporting European countries and to focus more on its own strategic priorities, such as confrontation with China and the situation in Latin America.
Is there stability in the U.S.?
The domestic political situation in the U.S. also plays a role in the strategic reassessment.
The continuation of fiscal problems, debates over a potential government shutdown, and the need to conserve resources during a period of economic uncertainty make the withdrawal from strategic positions in Europe a practical decision for the Trump administration.
Republicans, such as Senator Roger Wicker and Congressman Mike Rogers, expressed concern that this decision sends the wrong signal to Russia, implying that the U.S. may withdraw support from NATO’s security strategy.
Alexei Chepa, a Russian politician, stated that the withdrawal of American troops from Europe cannot be separated from the conflict in Ukraine, as Washington appears to express dissatisfaction with the policies of its European partners.
In this context, the troop withdrawal aims to highlight the responsibility of Europeans for the security of their region, emphasizing the need for greater funding of their defense programs.
Resource-saving strategy
Rather than a strategy of disconnecting from Europe, many experts point out that the withdrawal of U.S. forces is more closely related to a strategy of resource-saving and optimizing strategic presence.
Military expert Andrei Klintsevich argues that the withdrawal of forces from military bases in Europe and the upgrading of storage infrastructure, such as in Poland and the Baltic countries, will allow rapid movement of troops and heavy weaponry when required, without the need to maintain large military bases.
This type of strategy means that the U.S. will reduce the cost of maintaining permanent forces in Europe, without reducing response speed or strategic readiness.
On the contrary, it will allow them to strengthen other regions that are of greater importance to U.S. interests, such as the Pacific region and Latin America.
Unprecedented turmoil in NATO
The decision to withdraw American troops from Europe and reorganize U.S. strategic presence represents a major shift in the country’s foreign policy, potentially with profound consequences for Europe’s security and Washington’s policy in Ukraine.
Although many analysts argue that this move is primarily about saving resources and reorganizing strategic mobility, Trump’s political pivot toward Ukraine and European defense should not be underestimated.
Regardless of the reasons for the withdrawal, this decision is expected to cause turmoil in NATO and place Europeans in a difficult position, with European Union countries assuming a greater share of responsibility for their security.
NATO plan for the Eastern front with Russia
Meanwhile, NATO’s Land Forces Commander, General Christopher Donahue, presented to the Alliance member states a new defense plan for the protection of the eastern borders, titled “The Concept of the Eastern Barrier Containment Line.”
According to the German outlet Welt, Donahue presented this plan to the military delegations of the 32 NATO member states in Brussels, aiming to strengthen defense cooperation and integrate new strategies and technologies for protecting NATO’s eastern borders.
The Defense Strategy spans over 4,400 pages and presents a comprehensive mechanism of cooperation among armed forces, focusing on the exchange of data and information.
One of the main points of the new defense plan is the integration of autonomous and unmanned systems into NATO’s defense structures in the eastern region.
This proposal reflects the need for a more flexible and technologically advanced defense mechanism, capable of responding to modern challenges.
Donahue, according to the publication, focuses on how NATO can improve the speed and effectiveness of its response at its eastern border in the event of attacks or other threats.
Russia’s reaction and war preparation
At the same time, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warn that Russia appears to be preparing for a potential conflict with NATO.
According to the ISW report, Russia has already entered a “phase zero”—a phase of psychological and informational preparation for a possible conflict with the Alliance.
The report notes that Russia could begin to pose a real threat to NATO before 2036.
Many Western analysts point out that a Russian attack could possibly occur even before 2030, with the outcome of the war being negative for the West.
This phase, according to analysts, involves the strategic strengthening of Russia’s military presence and the creation of an environment that makes a conflict with NATO more likely in the future.
Public briefing and psychological preparation for a potential war between Russia and NATO may constitute key points in the Kremlin’s strategy to enhance the readiness of the Russian military.
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