The withdrawal of the Turkish troops from Cyprus, in exchange for an as-yet unknown concession, is expected to be offered by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, according to Turkish reports.
Moreover, retired diplomat Engin Solakoglu dropped a bombshell: “The AKP is sitting at the negotiation table on Cyprus.”
Solakoglu emphasized the significance of Tufan Erhurman’s presence both in the South and in the North, pointing out that a “two-state solution” would not be desirable even for the AKP.
Civil war within the government
In any case, lately, the Cyprus issue has been the main cause of the cold winds blowing between the two partners of the People’s Alliance, the AKP and the MHP, following the defeat of Ersin Tatar in the Northern Cyprus elections and the election of Tufan Erhurman.
While Devlet Bahceli called for the election results not to be recognized and for the Occupied Territories to be annexed as the 82nd province of Turkey, Tayyip Erdogan congratulated Erhurman, in sharp contrast with his coalition partner.
Erhurman announced that he would continue consultations with Ankara on critical issues immediately after the elections.
He is expected to visit Turkey soon and announced that in the coming weeks bilateral talks with the Republic of Cyprus will begin without the presence of United Nations representatives.
What the Americans say
At the same time, an article was published in the conservative magazine Washington Examiner, which stated that Trump was preparing a plan for Cyprus.
According to the article, the Trump administration would offer Ankara “an attractive package,” provided that Turkish troops withdraw from the island.
The package is said to include “enhanced defense cooperation, energy agreements with European support, and facilitation of trade.”
The article commented:
“For decades, Cyprus has been a graveyard for diplomats.
Although the two sides have come close to resolving the issue many times, it has never been achieved.
If Trump genuinely gets involved, he could turn this deadlock into a rare success in foreign policy.”
This claim, which was also reflected in the press in the Occupied Territories, was linked to comments that “Erdogan did not intervene in the Northern Cyprus elections after his meeting with Trump at the White House.”
“The AKP will certainly negotiate when it finds the right answer,” emphasized former diplomat Solakoglu.
Although cautious about whether there will actually be a plan for Cyprus, he stressed that the AKP could use Cyprus as a bargaining chip.
Recalling the statement of the TKP General Secretary, Kemal Okuyan, that Cyprus is always a trump card for the AKP, Solakoglu explained:
“The AKP essentially never says, ‘I will not negotiate on Cyprus.’ When there is an appropriate issue and a proper answer, it will certainly negotiate.”
Occupied territories
Regarding the elections in the Occupied Territories, Solakoglu emphasized:
“Yes, these elections have a facilitating aspect.
When there is a Trump plan, the Turkish Cypriot side will at least have a team that understands federation, defends it, and has experience in negotiations.”
The team of the CTP, according to Solakoglu, has experienced personnel, unlike the previous team of Ersin Tatar, which was pro-government and lacked experience.
This could be to Turkey’s advantage, provided it is used appropriately in negotiations.
As for the “use of Cyprus as a bargaining chip,” Solakoglu explained that the energy resources around the island are not, by themselves, a sufficient advantage for the AKP.
On the contrary, Cyprus could be used to achieve better rapprochement with the European Union or to ensure the AKP’s hold on power.
Solakoglu highlighted the importance of NATO:
“Nowadays, NATO has a presence both in the South and in the North of the island.
The United States could potentially initiate an effort to eliminate frictions on the island and utilize it for operations in the Middle East.”
Regarding Tufan Erhurman’s statement that Nikos Christodoulides agreed to a direct meeting without the presence of the United Nations, Solakoglu said this was the CTP’s long-standing position:
“Mustafa Akinci did it in the past, as did Mehmet Ali Talat.
This happens all the time on the island. It’s not a dramatic change.”
About Ersin Tatar, Solakoglu commented:
“He was a parenthesis.
The AKP did not want to enter negotiations with him, as he lacked both experience and knowledge of the Cyprus issue.”
Bilateral talks
Nevertheless, the retired diplomat predicts that bilateral talks between North and South will begin with the approval of the AKP, which could present them as confidence-building measures, border crossings, and other related contacts, preparing the ground for more comprehensive talks.
As for the “two-state solution,” Solakoglu was categorical:
“That was a gesture of throwing up one’s hands.
There is no such thing, and the AKP would not want it.
It creates conflicting issues and would require serious concessions elsewhere.”
Regarding federation, Solakoglu emphasized that it is a broad concept and can be realized in many ways, depending on the negotiations the AKP will conduct with the West.
He noted that the Turkish Cypriots have supported self-governance even at the municipal level since the 1950s, seeking not to be under direct Greek Cypriot rule.
Finally, the “red line” of the Northern Cypriots poses a restriction for the AKP:
“If this line is crossed, the Turkish Cypriots and the CTP will be the first to oppose,” stated Solakoglu, adding that chaos would ensue if the AKP attempted to downgrade the Turkish Cypriots to a Western Thrace-type status, something that remains non-negotiable.
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