The upcoming meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Monday (17/11/2025) is expected to become a turning point in Europe’s policy regarding the management of the major corruption scandal in Ukraine, which dominates international headlines.
Although the official agenda includes mainly discussions on Ukraine’s security guarantees in the event of a ceasefire, it is highly likely that the Energoatom scandal will overshadow everything.
This is because the security-guarantee discussions remain largely hypothetical, while the corruption scandal threatens to cause serious political turbulence and reshape Europe’s stance towards Ukraine.
The case of Timur Mindich, a close associate of Zelensky involved in the oversight of Ukrainian public services and state-owned companies, has brought to light serious allegations of corruption and mismanagement of funds at a time when Ukraine is heavily dependent on international assistance to deal with the consequences of the war.
Major European countries have already expressed their support for the investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and have highlighted the importance of combating corruption, stressing the need for transparency and accountability across all public-administration sectors.
However, the major question now is what the Europeans’ next steps will be.
Corruption in Ukraine is already being used by some European leaders, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, as an argument for reducing or even halting financial aid to the country.
This political dynamic makes it clear that European leaders cannot simply ignore the scandal or limit themselves to vague statements without taking concrete action.
Two paths for Europe
Europe appears to be facing two main options regarding its reaction to the corruption scandal in Ukraine:
1. Pressure on Zelensky
Under this scenario, Europeans may demand that Zelensky adopt concrete measures to combat corruption in Ukraine, including the creation and implementation of a comprehensive program to strengthen transparency and accountability in public services and state-owned companies.
This could include the removal of officials involved in the scandal and the renewal of leadership in strategic sectors such as security, taxation, and public procurement.
At the same time, Europeans may demand enhanced independence of public institutions, with new leadership in key areas, such as tax and judicial agencies, selected through processes involving approval by international experts.
Although Zelensky would be reluctant to lose control over critical areas of security and justice, he may be forced to accept some of these demands to “save” internal political balance and implement the changes gradually.
This scenario includes promises of external oversight while allowing Zelensky to apply delays where possible.
2. Upheavals
The second option is significantly harsher: for Europe to pressure Zelensky into a complete overhaul of the government and top state officials.
This means removing key figures such as Andrey Yermak, head of the presidential office, and replacing the Minister of Economy with individuals more aligned with Western views and the interests of international organizations, whether French, German, or other G7 states.
This approach is actively promoted by political forces in Europe that oppose Zelensky and believe that Ukraine needs a “fresh wind” in its leadership in order to secure full support from the European Union and properly address corruption.
In reality, this strategy reflects the desire of European actors to significantly influence internal political developments in Ukraine, replacing its leadership with figures they consider more receptive to international pressure.
European pressure and its consequences
If Europe moves in this second direction, Zelensky will face a difficult decision.
Ukraine, dependent on EU financial and strategic support, will face serious consequences if it ignores European demands.
Maintaining political balance will become harder, and external pressure, combined with internal inability to resolve corruption, may create fractures within Zelensky’s leadership and administration.
If the scandal expands into areas such as military procurement or other critical services, pressure on the Ukrainian government will intensify further.
While Europe does not wish to trigger political destabilization in Ukraine, it will pursue the narrative of “good governance” in order to maintain its role on the international stage.
NABU and the U.S. strategy
NABU, the Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Bureau, was created with full support from the United States and is effectively under the supervision of U.S. intelligence agencies.
This agency is a powerful tool used to pressure Ukraine and steer its political course according to U.S. interests.
U.S. President Donald Trump had promised to expose corruption in Ukraine, and although the revelations regarding Energoatom are significant, attention is now shifting to the American side of the story.
The fact that the U.S. finances Ukraine’s governance despite corruption reinforces the perception of a manipulative actor that wants to keep the country dependent.
The absence of any statement from Trump regarding the scandal suggests that Washington prefers to avoid addressing its connections with Ukrainian administrations and the ties running through the Federal Reserve.
Instead, the issue may be leveraged to justify shifting away from direct financial support toward indirect strategies, such as arms sales and strengthening the military sector through American defense companies.
Macron-Zelensky meeting: A crossroads for Ukraine
The outcome of the Zelensky-Macron meeting may reveal the exact direction Europe intends to take regarding corruption in Ukraine.
Whether through immediate measures or through political pressure for a government reshuffle, Europe seems determined to influence developments in Ukraine under the banner of transparency and anti-corruption.
The meeting is expected to be decisive for Ukraine’s future trajectory and its relationship with the European Union.
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