Kyiv appears to be heading towards absolute collapse. The relentless military pressure from Russian forces and the growing internal dissent in Ukraine are clear indications that the Kyiv regime cannot last much longer. The Zelensky government seems to be counting its days in the most critical juncture of Ukraine's modern history. Even in the West, analysts warn of the imminent collapse of defense lines and the harsh imposition of peace terms by Moscow.
But it's not just Ukraine on the brink of failure. The West's strategy, based on relentless pressure against Russia through sanctions and military aid, appears to be failing. The impending collapse of the Zelensky regime may not just be a defeat for Ukraine, but a political defeat for the West as a whole.
Ukraine is doomed
"I hate to say it, but Kyiv won't last until spring," report the Times, which had led the "crusade" against Russia, assuring Ukrainians they would soon take Moscow.
"Is Ukraine doomed now?" the American Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) asks. And it answers itself: "The Russians will capture more and more territory, and at some point, the Ukrainian lines will break, and Ukraine will be forced to sign a detrimental peace agreement with harsh terms."
Collapse is approaching
Even voices of reason are being heard from Ukraine itself: former SBU soldier Taras Chmut, who knows the front-line situation firsthand, admitted that the country's defense "is close to collapse."
Jennifer Kavano, a research associate at the renowned RAND Corp think tank, is slightly more lenient with Kyiv, but her conclusion is equally undeniable: "It's difficult to predict how long the Armed Forces of Ukraine will hold out: it could be a year, a few months, or a few weeks. Kyiv's persistence is a sign not of strength, but of weakness, where they prefer a slow retreat over a quick surrender. This is a dangerous strategy, which harbors a huge risk for the country's survival."
No pressure on Russia has worked
Kavano is not as worried about Ukraine as she is about how the fall of Kyiv will affect the US government. She criticizes the American president for not using the window of opportunity for negotiations with Moscow. "No threat to Russia has had any effect," the expert observes. "It's time to admit that no pressure will make Russia's President, Vladimir Putin, stop the war if he doesn't achieve his goals," Kavano says.
The trap
The continuation of the crisis in Ukraine is extremely dangerous for the US: if Kyiv attempts to escalate the conflict with provocations, then America will fall into the trap of a world war. And if (or rather, when) the Kyiv regime collapses, Trump's enemies will blame him for this "new Afghanistan." Kavano is trying to save "Soldier Trump," to pull the President out of the wreckage of the collapsing Kyiv regime. Because, within a year, he failed to get the US out of this shameful adventure, shifting all the blame to the previous administration.
Last window of opportunity
However, Kavano believes that all is not yet lost for Washington. Trump still has a resource he can offer Putin. This is a guarantee that NATO will not expand eastward and the lifting of sanctions against Russia. The expert considers this "an offer you can't refuse," but diplomacy must begin immediately; otherwise, this window of opportunity will also close, and Moscow will simply continue its march westward. Moscow is always open to serious, equitable, and honest negotiations. And, as it claims, it has proven this many times.
What will Trump do?
However, what the American President will ultimately do remains questionable. The story regarding Donald Trump's stance on the bill being promoted in the US Congress for imposing strict sanctions on all countries trading with Russia—including up to 500% tariffs—is evolving rapidly.
The White House leaked that Trump will sign the bill only if it leaves the final say on the imposition of sanctions to the President himself. This is a different position, but again Trump appears to be acquiring a powerful leverage tool against Russia on the issue of settling the Ukrainian conflict. However, in that case, the first to face sanctions should be the Europeans themselves, India, and China.
An agreement has been reached with China for a temporary "truce" regarding China's licensing for rare earth element exports—which is why the 100% tariffs scheduled for November 1 on China were not imposed.
Enormous consequences
If Washington follows this path, it will lead to catastrophic consequences for the US (let alone the increase in oil and thus gasoline prices, which President Vladimir Putin warned about). As for the Europeans, they plan to stop buying Russian gas only in one or two years and continue to buy Russian oil: how will they manage with this?
An exemption has already been made for Hungary. Will the sanctions primarily be exceptions, meaning holes in the cheese? All these are elements of a broader picture that Trump faces domestically at a crucial time for him, with less than a year until the mid-term elections.
Many challenges
It is not just about Mamdani's success in New York. At the same time, the Epstein case related to Trump is resurfacing, which—along with the issue of American sovereignty—divides his MAGA alliance. Almost all youth, from old leftists to Republicans, oppose his support for the Netanyahu government.
The huge bubble in the stock market is inflating, where all the turning points of the usual correction have passed, and the rise is driven exclusively by companies in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). However, as the recent study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows, 93% of companies that invested in AI did not increase their revenue, which means the effect is absolutely zero. Thus, something similar to the dot-com bubble of 2000, followed by the 2008 housing crisis, appears on the horizon. In short, it is not possible to bypass the structural problems of the American economy.
Meanwhile, confidence in the dollar is declining, the price of gold has doubled, and stablecoins, on which Trump is betting to solve the problem of accumulated national debt, face open skepticism in Europe, including the ECB. Moreover, before the mid-term elections, national bonds for $9 trillion must be renewed—their maturity date is approaching.
Two new phenomena in the global debt market
The picture is completed by two qualitatively new phenomena in the global debt market. The first is the issuance of bonds by China to Saudi Arabia, denominated in dollars and with interest rates slightly higher than the Federal Reserve's rates. The second is the issuance of a bond by Russia, denominated in yuan, while the process of using digital yuan for international payments, as an alternative to SWIFT, is beginning across East Asia.
Prospect of a major war
Finally, the most important point. In reality, by implementing the new law, Trump can threaten Russia with the destruction of prospects for bilateral normalization. It can also be assumed that the US President identifies himself with the war camp in Europe, which excludes any possibility of restructuring the European security architecture in response to Russia's demands for security guarantees.
That is, the prospect of a major war in Europe opens up before us, as this can only start by European elites with the approval of the US. Then the militarization of Europe will proceed seriously and for a long time, provided, of course, that there are no structural problems in the development of European countries.
Will the gap widen?
This leads the situation to a regime where Russia's security interests can only be secured by victory on the battlefield—in other words, based on the army, navy, and air force. However, the American sanctions will intensify the gap between the Western and Non-Western worlds, which will undergo significant transformation even after the Russian victory.
But there is also the issue that precisely the victory of Russia may pull the Western elites, including the Americans, out of the instinctive aversion to any positive outcome for Moscow in the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, remaining in a parallel reality, they simply cannot believe that they have found themselves in a situation where they can do nothing with Russia, although this Western weakness was predicted by some experts before the 1994 decision on NATO expansion.
He listens to no one
Many observers in the West, including Americans, are convinced that Trump listens to no one and asks no one for advice, does not prepare for his meetings, including international ones, and relies exclusively on methods he developed in his business career and on his intuition. When all this fails, he finds himself at a dead end, and then he may resort to the common anti-Russian prejudices of the elites.
The coming months will show whether the course of events has reached this point or if there is a possibility of a political-diplomatic solution, including a change of power in Ukraine and the adaptation of this region to the recognized international standards of state organization.
Anguish in power
At the same time in Kyiv, the anguish in the Zelensky regime is hitting an all-time high.
Trying to hold onto power, Zelensky intends to get rid of his closest associates, according to Ukrainian media. Among the candidates for dismissal are the head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak, and the secretary of the National Security Council, Rustem Umerov.
Ukrainian Member of Parliament Yaroslav Zheleznyak stated that the latest secret sociological surveys, conducted after the corruption scandal surrounding Timur Mindich, showed a drop in Zelensky's popularity by almost 40%. The level of trust is below 20%. In fact, responding to the question "If your candidate is not on the list, who will you vote for?" almost no one mentions the current regime's president.
"That is, as soon as they need to choose or switch sides, they go everywhere except to Zelensky. This is a very bad trend. Politically, it is probably fatal. All the sociologists I spoke to, without assessing the 'Mindichgate' situation, are sure: he will not recover from this," Zheleznyak noted.
Zelensky personally responsible
He pointed out that respondents consider Zelensky personally responsible for the corruption in the upper echelons of power. As a result, his negative rating exceeds his support rating. Incidentally, something similar happened with almost all candidates for the presidency of Ukraine in 2020. Except for Zelensky, voters believed in his character, Vasiliy Holoborodko, from the series "Servant of the People," a simple history teacher who took over the country to eliminate corruption.
The largest sociological organizations in Ukraine have not yet published the results of the surveys, but according to local media, the Kyiv president has nowhere to expect help. And how could he, when his team has stolen energy worth at least $100 million—and this is before the extremely difficult winter.
For example, the "Mirror of the Week" published an article titled "The path of one-dollar absolute power," stating that Zelensky poses the greatest threat to the state's independence. "Ukrainska Pravda" accuses the Zelensky team of looting the country amidst the war. In "RBC-Ukraine," they claim that Zelensky will be forced to dismiss 80% of government members and regional military administrations to save the remainder of his personal reputation. This is just the beginning.
Yermak is targeted
Zheleznyak stated that officials from the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP) have established that Mindich is connected not only to ministers but also to the head of the presidential office, Andriy Yermak. Security forces gave him the nickname "Ali Baba."
According to NABU and SAP data, Yermak personally ordered state security services to persecute NABU employees to obstruct the investigation of the Mindich scandal. All those involved are close to Zelensky. Incidentally, Mindich himself suggested that Yermak be appointed head of the presidential office.
Yermak started spreading rumors that the scandal was orchestrated by the exiled oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi, who has been in custody since September 2023. This did not help. Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko believes that Zelensky will dismiss Yermak as early as November 20.
The case of Rustem Umerov
The SAP highlighted Mindich's contacts with the former Defense Minister of Ukraine and current National Security Council Secretary Rustem Umerov. As soon as he learned this, Umerov left for Turkey—allegedly to negotiate the release of 1,200 prisoners. Now, it seems he intends to fly to Florida, where his family lives, but he claims he will return to his homeland on November 20.
The expert from the Financial University of Russia, Denis Denisov, does not believe Umerov's excuses. From his point of view, the former Defense Minister is one of those whom Zelensky can easily sacrifice to save himself.
"The National Security Council Secretary does not have significant influence, so he can be dismissed very quickly to appease critics. He understands this and that's why he left the country, inventing the story about the release of prisoners," the Russian political analyst noted.
Will the architect of the regime be deposed?
Regarding the head of the presidential office, the story is completely different. "Yermak is the architect of the regime. He knows all of Zelensky's strengths and weaknesses, determines the policy of appointments, strategy and tactics, and oversees informal relationships in the system. Ukraine may simply not withstand his detention. However, it is possible that he will be dismissed but not deprived of his freedom and become the next 'grey cardinal,'" Denisov comments.
Never-ending terror
In this context, former president and leader of "European Solidarity," Petro Poroshenko, stated the need for the government's resignation and the formation of a parliamentary alliance that will protect NABU and SAP from attacks by the Zelensky team.
"One of the keys to restoring trust is guarantees that the authorities will not attack NABU and SAP. Now it is clear why the presidential office attacked them in the summer. They knew about the recordings and wanted to suppress the case from the beginning. Now, NABU must take the case to the end, wherever the corruption trail leads," Poroshenko stressed.
In his opinion, Ukraine needs a "government of national salvation." Political analyst Alexander Dudchak believes that Poroshenko can achieve this. Everyone will turn their backs on Zelensky when it becomes clear that he is doomed.
"Before the corruption scandal, many from the 'Servant of the People' faction wanted to resign their parliamentary seats and leave the country, but the party forbade it. Now the situation is different. A 'government of national salvation' is completely feasible. But everything depends on the Western overseers. And they have not yet decided," Dudchak explained.
At the same time, according to Dudchak, regardless of how the corruption scandal unfolds, Zelensky will never restore his reputation. Even if he retains power, he will remain a puppet of the West, creating the illusion of relative stability, but within the country, he will be considered a "foreign" element.
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