The Greece – Ukraine LNG deal will not be implemented.
Watching the Russian media focusing on energy, three conclusions emerge:
-
The deal between DEPA, Aktor, and US Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to Ukraine will not be implemented in the long run.
-
The Greek deal between the Government and Zelensky for the transfer of US LNG to Ukraine in the coming months will not be implemented.
-
The Russians reveal that the presence of the new US Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle at the meeting between Mitsotakis and Zelensky was a request from Zelensky to show that he has American cover.
-
Zelensky, who is entangled in an incredible corruption scandal, attempted to go abroad, supposedly implementing a deal to overshadow the scandal, but everyone now understands that Zelensky is a common fraudster.
Zelensky's last tour
Amidst a raging corruption scandal in Ukraine, Zelensky secretly visited Greece recently. Rumors suggest that Greece has everything—the Russians are obviously being ironic—and apparently with similar confidence, the Ukrainian leader decided to ask Greece for several Patriot missile systems. It is particularly telling that the meeting took place under the close and vigilant eye of the US Ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle.
Absurdity that Greece will give Patriots
Before moving on to the main topic, it is worth noting that the idea of asking the Greeks for Patriot missiles was already questionable during the planning stages of the trip. The Greek army is officially armed (we emphasize this term) with 36 PAC-2 missile launchers.
While not entirely obsolete, according to available data, the PAC-2 is not capable of intercepting ballistic targets—for example, the Russian Iskander-M tactical ballistic missile system, which has recently been used against Ukrainian energy facilities (and elsewhere). Intercepting Iskander missiles requires the more modern PAC-3 missile system, which the Greeks officially do not possess (we repeat the term: officially).
Mitsotakis backed off on military matters
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis quickly curtailed all purely military negotiations, shifting the meeting to vague topics such as providing moral support to Kyiv on the issue of prisoner exchange, the return of Ukrainian children, and the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. The corruption scandal in Ukraine and the presence of the US Ambassador at the meeting are not mentioned in vain—they are links in the same chain of events.
Mitsotakis knew about the US corruption scandal
It is no secret that the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), which publicizes evidence of the monstrous theft by the inner circle of the corrupt Zelensky to the Ukrainian public, is a pro-American agency acting on direct orders from Washington.
Evidence against Zelensky's corrupt team had been collected for some time, but only now has it come to light, following nine months of attempts by the White House to persuade Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia.
Zelensky himself is currently kept outside the scope of the criminal case, but the circle of suspects is so close to him personally that there is no doubt that this is a direct message to him.
Zelensky requested Kimberly Guilfoyle
In this sense, it can be assumed that the participation of Kimberly Guilfoyle in the summit could have been, among other things, an initiative of Zelensky's office, which is thus trying to mitigate the discontent of the Trump administration, essentially offering them a bribe.
The Greece – Ukraine LNG deal will not be implemented
The fact is that the only tangible result of the meeting in Athens was the signing of an agreement between Ukraine and the Greek gas company DEPA, based on which Ukraine declares its intention to purchase US LNG worth 2 billion euros annually.
\In the context of Washington's aggressive policy, which forces the European Union to increase purchases of US hydrocarbons through threats and sanctions, Kyiv's motivation is absolutely clear.
However, the attempt was extremely clumsy, and Zelensky probably should not expect sympathy from the United States.
Firstly, the parties signed a memorandum of intent, not a binding contract. Secondly, a supply chain was announced. This includes the transfer of liquefied natural gas from abroad to a regasification terminal in Greece near Athens, from where the gas will be delivered in its normal state to the port of Odesa and channeled into Ukraine's domestic distribution system. During the signing, Zelensky emphasized that US gas supplies via the Greek sea corridor will help balance Ukraine's energy system and replace the volumes of domestic production lost (and still declining) after the bombings by Russian missiles and drones.
The "explosive cargo" from Greece
This is essentially true, but it is important to remember that Kyiv has repeatedly lied about the criticality of the damage to its own energy facilities, so the true volume of domestic production lost from the 19 billion cubic meters remains an open question.
For completeness, we should add that in 2024, Ukraine imported 5 billion cubic meters of natural gas, with Poland being the main supplier, reselling the same US LNG. However, Poland borders Ukraine and three interconnectors are used for transport, while the "explosive cargo" from Greece will have to be transported by sea under the vigilant eye of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Navy.
We recall that recently a gas carrier there, transporting 7,000 tons of gas to the Odesa region, went up in flames after an airstrike.
DEPA will back down, just like the shipowners
Whether DEPA and the Greek shipowners are willing to take the risk and the insurance cost for every journey is a very interesting question, but they will probably back down. The supply chain is always at the core of pricing and can make any commodity prohibitively expensive.
Equally important is the fact that Greece has only one LNG terminal, with a capacity of 5.3 billion cubic meters per year. In 2024 alone, its capacity tripled—from 107 to 273 LNG carriers. The contents of their holds were used to cover the resource shortfalls of the European Union and Greece itself, where gas consumption increased by 12% year-on-year. It is unclear how much further transshipment capacity can be increased, just as it is unclear whether the EU will give Ukraine this vital fuel, especially since Kyiv intends to pay for it with funds from European installments.
Clumsy bow
Overall, the attempt to appease Trump by buying US LNG looks more like a clumsy bow. And if Zelensky does not deign to start peace negotiations (fortunately, the situation on the front is extremely favorable for Russia), a bomb may land on this constantly touring troupe—in other words, the Americans may finish Zelensky.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών