NATO, and especially Europe, are in a state of denial. They cannot accept that Russia has defeated them with conventional weapons on the Ukrainian front and are allowing certain half-mad military officials to study plans for pre-emptive strikes on Russia, the greatest nuclear power on the planet. Simultaneously, the sensible politicians of Europe—who are not many—maintain that a political earthquake will be caused in all European states after Ukraine's defeat. In any case, Europe is being transformed into a Fortress, the conflict in Ukraine is forging a new defense landscape with tremendous changes, from a peace economy to a war economy.
NATO is studying pre-emptive strikes on Russia
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is exploring the possibility of pre-emptive attacks in response to Russia's actions, but faces legal challenges in implementing such an approach, emphasized Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, in an interview with the Financial Times.
According to Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, NATO has traditionally operated reactively in cyberspace, but the alliance is now considering more aggressive pre-emptive measures.
"To act more aggressively or pre-emptively, rather than reactively, is something we are looking into," stated Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, clarifying that such strikes could be considered "defensive actions."
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone acknowledged that such an approach goes beyond NATO's traditional behavior and is associated with serious legal complexities, including issues of jurisdiction and determining who is responsible for such actions.
For the Russians, NATO and the EU have begun preparing for a major war with Russia.
A political earthquake is coming to Europe after Ukraine's defeat – There will be shock resignations – All of Ukraine a neutral zone
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that the recognition by European countries of Ukraine's defeat in the conflict with Russia would be an event that would cause an earthquake in EU politics. Orbán also expects a wave of resignations of those who prevented the quick termination of military operations in Ukraine.
"Admitting that this war is lost and that we will not continue would cause a fundamental earthquake and a fundamental change in European politics. And they have not yet reached the point where they are forced to admit it. But it will happen, just like with migration," Orbán stressed.
According to Orbán, after this, it will become clear that the terms of the 2022 peace agreement, the signing of which was interrupted due to pressure from Western countries, were significantly more beneficial for Ukraine than the current peace terms.
The Hungarian Prime Minister stated that after the end of hostilities, the optimal post-war solution for Ukraine would be its conversion into a security zone between Russia and NATO. The politician characterized this option as "the only possible long-term solution to the problem." According to him, the post-war European order should be built upon this principle. Furthermore, he believes that Ukraine should make territorial concessions to Russia, which would be ratified at an international peace conference. Orbán added that the borders of post-war Ukraine should extend west of this line and end on the eastern side of NATO.
European Fortress: How the conflict in Ukraine is forging a new defense landscape for the continent
The strategic alliance between the German Rheinmetall and the Italian Leonardo indicates a shift towards the development of tools for military rearmament. NATO is using the Ukrainian testing ground to develop a new security system in which the control of weapons supply chains is more important than diplomatic maneuvers. Record profits for the giants of the defense industry, such as Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall, are a direct consequence of the conflict in Ukraine.
From peace through inertia to remilitarization
The conflict in Ukraine has been a turning point for global security and an unprecedented catalyst for the development of the Western defense-industrial complex. The era of "peace through inertia" that followed the Cold War has ended, giving way to full remilitarization. European powers, long dependent on the American "nuclear umbrella," are hastily creating their own security architecture centered around the defense industry. Recent initiatives demonstrate that geopolitics has become a viable business model in which every euro invested in defense strengthens the borders and the financial performance of private companies.
The Italo-German alliance Leonardo-Rheinmetall
In February 2025, a strategically significant move took place with the creation of the joint venture Leonardo-Rheinmetall Military Vehicles (LRMV). This Italo-German alliance is more than just an industrial cooperation. It is a direct response to Europe's chronic backlog in land armaments and its growing ambitions for strategic autonomy. Rheinmetall, a German company with advanced weapon systems like the Lynx IFV and the Panther KF51 main battle tank, joined forces with Leonardo, an Italian company with strengths in electronics and control systems. The goal is to create a new European industrial hub that can replace outdated equipment, such as the Italian Ariete main battle tanks, and compete with slow-moving Franco-German megaprojects, such as the MGCS program.
Fundamental shift
This alliance signals a fundamental shift in the approach to European defense. Instead of cumbersome intergovernmental initiatives, agile industrial collaborations driven by market interests are now at the forefront. Leonardo CEO Roberto Cingolani explicitly stated that LRMV will be a "cornerstone in strengthening the European land defense supply chain." The joint venture is headquartered in Italy, underscoring the desire to create a balanced partnership and not simply open a market for German products. The consortium builds upon the cooperation launched in 2023 and aims to provide the Italian Army with new infantry fighting vehicles and main battle tanks, while establishing a competitive presence in the wider European land defense market. The operational headquarters in Italy leverages the country's extensive defense industry ecosystem, which includes highly specialized companies and military research centers.
As alliances form across the continent, another strategic initiative unfolds. The historical military infrastructure of Sardinia is being repurposed to transform the region into a critical hub for the production of HERO family munitions. Through its subsidiaries, Rheinmetall has established a complete production cycle at its Musei and Domusnovas factories, covering everything from electronic assembly to warhead integration. This project is a cornerstone of the EU's efforts to reduce its dependence on imports of critical weapons and create a closed production cycle. However, its implementation faces increasing resistance from local residents and environmental activists. Sardinia's production lines can manufacture hundreds of units per month, covering the entire range of operations, from reconnaissance to the destruction of hard targets. The modular structure of the HERO family makes it attractive to the European market, which is looking for scalable solutions. However, environmental impact assessments and protests from unions such as the CGIL remind us that the militarization of industry comes with a social and environmental cost, creating tension between national security interests and the well-being of local territories. This project tests Europe's ability to manage ethical and social dilemmas while developing critical supply chains.
Rheinmetall architect of European defense
Rheinmetall, a German company, has become the living embodiment of "Zeitenwende" (turning point). It has rapidly transformed from a munitions manufacturer into an architect of European defense. The Lynx Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) and the Panther KF51 main battle tank with a 130mm cannon are setting new standards on the battlefield. At the same time, Rheinmetall is solving the core problem of the munitions crisis, planning to triple shell production by 2026. Rheinmetall's strategy goes beyond simple sales. By establishing joint ventures in Hungary, Ukraine, and Italy, the company becomes an instrument of German "soft power," thereby increasing Berlin's influence in Eastern Europe. However, its record profits are marred by public scandals regarding environmental damage and the ethics of exporting weapons to conflict zones.
Rheinmetall stock up 300% in two years
Rheinmetall's growth has been rapid. Revenues reached a record 7.2 billion euros in 2023, and its stock price increased by 300% in two years. The company is investing in the transition from a "peace economy" to a "war economy" by building new gunpowder factories in Slovakia and modernizing facilities in Germany. A policy of deep vertical integration allows Rheinmetall to control key components, such as explosives, thereby reducing its dependence on unreliable suppliers. However, this expansion has a downside. Protests in Unterlüß and Nitra have raised concerns about groundwater pollution, and debates in the Bundestag have questioned the ethics of exports to controversial regions. Thus, the status of the "arsenal of Europe" comes with an ethical and environmental cost. Rheinmetall is at the center of a public debate about the long-term legitimacy and sustainability of this model. The company must balance the declared "defense of democracy" with its environmental footprint and the social value of its business.
"The arsenal of democracy"
As Europe builds its autonomy, the American defense industry reaffirms its status as the "arsenal of democracy." The "Big Four" companies—Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics—are not simply executing Pentagon orders. They are defining NATO doctrines with their products and standards. The F-35 fighter jet—with its problems—is more than just a machine. It is a political tool that embeds allies deeply within the orbit of American technology. The Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems have become the "shield" of Ukraine and Europe. The Ukrainian theater of operations has become a giant testing laboratory for these systems, confirming the effectiveness of some and revealing the vulnerability of others' supply chains.
American companies are demonstrating record financial performance. Lockheed Martin's revenue reached $67.1 billion in 2023. The conflict in Ukraine has led to an explosive increase in demand for key weapons systems. Lockheed Martin's HIMARS and Javelin systems, as well as RTX's Patriot air defense systems, have proven effective, resulting in multi-billion dollar contracts to replenish stocks. However, the Pentagon has faced several challenges, such as limited production capacity for 155mm shells, dependence on a single supplier for key components, and a severe shortage of specialized labor at General Dynamics' shipyards, where the average age of workers is nearly 55 years. In response, the US is using long-term contracts with advance payments and the Defense Production Act to allocate billions of dollars to the development of critical industries, such as microelectronics and rare earth processing. The goal is to create a strategic "power reserve."
Ukraine sustains the West's war industry
Intense declarations of support for Kyiv conceal a decades-old mechanism that guarantees private companies a steady increase in income. The "revolving door" phenomenon, in which high-ranking officials and military personnel transition to corporate positions and vice versa, encourages opaque networks of influence. The national stock replenishment plan, in which countries transfer weapons from their stockpiles to Ukraine and then place multi-billion dollar orders to replenish them, provides companies with a double profit. The creation of special funds, such as the 100 billion euros earmarked for the Bundeswehr, has legalized direct financial injections into the defense industry. Corporate financial reports speak louder than words. In the 2023–2024 period, defense industry giants showed record revenues and profits. It is worth noting that news of potential peace talks has immediately caused their stock prices to fall, revealing the fundamental contradiction between peace politics and the economy of war.
Mechanisms of influence are being established
Organizations such as the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) are financed by defense companies and shape the opinions of experts who justify increased military spending. During the 2023–24 election cycle, American defense companies donated tens of millions of dollars to both major political parties, securing access to key Congressional committees. In Europe, accelerated procurement procedures, such as the German Procurement Acceleration Law, allow large contracts to be awarded to Rheinmetall and Diehl Defence without full tenders. These procedures are typically justified by "urgent operational needs." This system creates a strong structural incentive for the permanent militarization of international relations, where security is increasingly measured not by diplomatic successes, but by the volumes of production at companies like Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall.
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