The unthinkable seems to be a reality. The scenario of a war between Europe and Russia within the next five years, however nightmarish it may seem, appears to have been set in motion.
This is not the first time it has been heard that Europe is preparing and arming itself militarily to face the Russian threat. It is characteristic that a German general stated that we have probably lived through our last peaceful summer. Nor is it the first time that Russia, through its president Vladimir Putin, has categorically ruled out the possibility of invading a European state.
However, for the first time, a European Foreign Minister claims that secret plans indeed exist, showing that Europe is preparing for a military confrontation with Russia. There is no doubt the political temperature is rising dangerously, and along with it, the anxiety about where the Old Continent is heading.
Hungary's revelations
The Hungarian Foreign Minister, Péter Szijjártó, stated that Europe is preparing for a military confrontation with Russia, which may occur in 2030. He noted that according to European Union (EU) strategic documents, European countries must be at full combat readiness by 2029.
Szijjártó, as reported by the Hungarian newspaper Magyar Nemzet, called on citizens to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections and "not allow ourselves, our children, and our grandchildren to live in Europe under conditions of war in the middle of the 21st century." The minister underlined that the main issue in the coming years will be whether they can prevent the complete destruction of the continent.
We do not support
As the Hungarian Foreign Minister said, Budapest does not support the escalation of military rhetoric in the EU and opposes steps that could "bring Europe closer to direct confrontation with Russia." According to him, the Hungarian government will continue to work so that "the citizens of the country do not live in conditions of military conflict."
Szijjártó has repeatedly criticized European defense policy. In the summer of 2024, he opposed the European Commission's plans to increase military investment, arguing that this "could lead Europe to dangerous escalation." In mid-2025, Budapest also blocked part of the EU's statements regarding support for Ukraine.
Russia warns of global-scale destruction
Previously, Russia's ambassador to Belgium, Denis Gonchar, had stated that NATO and the European Union had begun preparing for a major war with Russia. He clarified that NATO member states are terrifying their citizens with Moscow's non-existent plans to attack coalition countries.
"The EU is pushing for unchecked militarization, destroying the original concept of a united Europe for peace and prosperity, turning the EU into appendages of NATO," Gonchar stated. The diplomat added that Moscow does not desire confrontation, but, along with its allies, is working to create a common security architecture in Eurasia.
Reactions to war preparation
Russian MP Andrey Kolesnik stressed that there are indeed indications that Europe is preparing for a major war with Russia. However, he said the Western world should consider the catastrophic consequences this war would have on a global scale. "They are preparing for the third world war and the destruction of the planet. This must be understood by our opponents in the Western world, and the United States too. If there is a war with Russia, as our ambassador said, this will be synonymous with the third world war, which, as we know, will end with a nuclear winter and the extinction of humanity," he characteristically stated.
Kolesnik also mentioned that Europe's preparation for war is evident from the entirety of hostile actions carried out near Russian borders. He included in these military exercises, the flight of foreign bombers and reconnaissance aircraft, as well as the passage of warships—carriers of nuclear weapons—while at the same time, military equipment is being sent from the US to Europe, despite the peaceful statements of Western leaders.
What they are preparing in Germany
Germany's Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, stated that war between NATO and Russia may start before 2029. However, he mentioned that there are also those who believe the conflict could escalate as early as 2028. "Some military historians believe that we have lived through the last peaceful summer," Pistorius characteristically noted. The German minister underlined the need to strengthen the armed forces of NATO member states for possible military actions against Russia, pointing out that the coalition already possesses significant deterrent potential "both at the conventional and nuclear level."
Secret military planning in Germany
Meanwhile, it has been reported several times that Germany and other NATO countries are preparing a secret plan for a military front against Russia. The Wall Street Journal claims that Germany has a secret plan ready in case of war with Russia.
Based on the report, German authorities have been secretly developing an extensive plan for a military confrontation with Russia in recent years. The document provides for the transfer of hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers eastward. Approximately 800,000 soldiers from Germany, the United States, and other countries of the alliance will use German infrastructure to move eastward, as stated in the secret document. The plan, which has 1,200 pages, analyzes in detail which ports, rivers, rail, and road infrastructure will be used. It is noted that the existence of such a document indicates a return to the values of the Cold War era.
NATO staging ground
However, it is noted that Germany faces several difficulties that must be taken into account, and for this reason, in the event of a full-scale conflict, it will serve as a NATO staging ground, but will not be on the front line. Commenting on this data, Russian MP and member of the State Duma Defense Committee, Andrey Koleshnik, stated that Germany has not abandoned its revanchist ideas.
"I don't think this is about Germany, it's a joint NATO operation. They are trying to scare us with these impressive moves and at the same time preparing the German army, which is quite weak today, for action. They are not abandoning their revanchist ideas, but we must remember how all this ended," Kolesnik declared.
War infrastructure
The head of the Federation Council's Committee on Information Policy, Alexei Pushkov, explained that these German plans show that Europe is preparing for "war infrastructure." According to him, the European Union seems to believe that it has no other option to restore its international position except through military war with Russia.
The military has no money for modernization
It was reported last year that Germany's armed forces need additional money for modernization, as the special fund of 100 billion euros is not enough. Through this fund, the German army managed to finance the purchase of new fighter jets, armored transport vehicles, and ammunition. However, this is clearly insufficient for creating a strong defense industry.
The WSJ also points out that modern German infrastructure needs repairs and is not suitable for military use, which limits the mobility of troops in case of war. According to the authorities' estimates, highways and bridges need repair. Other problems include complicated procurement rules, data protection laws, and other regulations that apply in peacetime. Also, the execution of the plan requires a change in mentality.
There are no soldiers for the war
It is estimated that the strength of the German army is approximately 160,000 personnel. Considering NATO obligations, the German army needs at least 460,000 active soldiers and reservists, said Inspector General Karsten Broyer. At the same time, he mentioned that the troops should be fully ready for action by 2029, due to the alleged threat from Moscow.
During the Cold War, Germany had 500,000 active soldiers, and in case of war, mobilization could increase the army to 1.3 million soldiers. The lack of military personnel is not the only problem. The average age of the German soldier at the end of 2019 was 32.4 years, and at the end of 2024, it is projected to reach 34 years. Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is calling for the immediate reintroduction of compulsory military service. The Chancellor's party, Friedrich Merz, also desires the return of military service. Nevertheless, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) have currently agreed on measures that will enhance the number of armed forces. The primary method will remain the enlistment of volunteers, but in some cases, the compulsory enlistment of a specific number of soldiers will be possible.
No appetite for war
"German soldiers will be ready to kill Russian soldiers," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in an interview with the Financial Times last July. During the same period, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that the country's armed forces will become a "model for the entire alliance." However, ordinary citizens, apparently, do not share the optimism of the politicians.
According to German media, the number of applications for exemption from military service broke a 14-year record. By the end of August, the Bundeswehr Career Center had received 3,257 applications for conscientious objection exemption. Although compared to last year the statistic is alarming for Berlin, it is not yet considered critical—in eight months of 2025, this number is already 9.2% greater than the whole of 2024. The essence of the problem becomes clear in the long-term perspective. The increase in applications coincided with the start of the Ukrainian conflict—in 2021, there were only 200. Then the number continuously rose:
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2022: 1,100 applications
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2023: 1,609
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2024: 2,998
This year's over 3,000 applications risk becoming a negative record since 2011, when the Bundeswehr fully transitioned to a professional basis.
"Everyone to arms!"
Already then, Pistorius had criticized the abolition of compulsory service. Now, along with Merz, they are preparing an extensive military reform, which includes the partial reintroduction of conscription. Berlin intends to radically increase the strength of the armed forces: from the current 160,000 to 260,000 soldiers and officers. The number of reservists will increase more than threefold—from 60,000 to 200,000.
Changes on the island
Beyond Germany, Britain has also begun a major military reform. "We are moving into a state of war readiness, which will become the main goal of our armed forces," Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated in June. "When we are directly threatened by states with advanced military capabilities, the most effective way to deter is to show that we are ready and capable of preserving peace through strength." As is obvious, he was referring to Russia. In the Strategic Defence Review report, Russia is characterized as an "immediate and urgent threat."
The 5 principles of the British
The anticipated changes for Britain are based on five principles:
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NATO First: London must assume a leading role in the alliance, which will be the main mechanism for European security.
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Transition to war readiness: Creation of stronger, "integrated" armed forces is needed, properly equipped for the wars of the future.
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Engine of growth: Military strengthening should function as a lever for the economy through job creation and cooperation with the private sector.
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Innovations from Ukrainian lessons: Utilization of experiences in the use of drones and digital warfare acquired from the conflict in Ukraine.
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National involvement: Society must actively participate in securing its own safety.
In the ground component, London decided to rely on the "20-40-40" model, where 20% of the power comes from conventional crewed assets, 40% from reusable unmanned systems, and the remaining 40% from single-use precision weapons and kamikaze drones.
Readiness for a few weeks
"This restructuring is a largely anticipated step," notes Hamish Mandell, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). "But it leaves open the question: what will happen if that 20% is destroyed or neutralized?" According to him, Britain focuses excessively on how to withstand the first stage of a war. But if the conflict is prolonged, defeat will be difficult to avoid.
"Although there is a clear understanding of the need to strengthen combat power, there is little evidence that the country has a plan for a war lasting longer than a few weeks," Mandell believes. He points out that a prolonged war requires not only a well-trained first wave of troops, but also a second and third wave, capable of replenishing losses in manpower and equipment.
Britain's military strength is just 76,000 people
Here, however, problems are identified: active soldiers in the British army are three times the number of reservists. This means there will be no one to replace those lost, and the resources for mass mobilization are also lacking. At the same time, the current strength of the British army is not impressive—just 76,000 personnel.
However, according to Mandell, the problem is not limited to numbers. "The broader issue of defense depth needs to be resolved. This requires reserves, industrial capacity, a legal framework for mobilization," he stresses. In his view, Britain is overly focused on winning the first battle of a possible war, without being ready for what follows. The view that the future confrontation will depend on the endurance of the sides is gaining ground. And the West is actively seeking solutions to cope with this scenario.
Alarm in France too
At the same time, France is also in the midst of war preparations. Characteristic were the statements of French General Fabien Mandon, Chief of the French Armed Forces, who caused a stir when he said that the country must prepare for possible future losses against Russian aggression. Last October, Mandon had stated that the French armed forces must be ready for a potential conflict within the next 3 to 4 years, amidst the alleged Russian threat.
"If our country shrinks back because it is not ready to accept that it will lose its children, to suffer economically, as the priority, for example, will be given to defense production, if we are not ready for that, then we are under threat. I set the goal for the armed forces to be ready within 3 to 4 years, but I need the nation to be ready to support these efforts, if we need to undertake them," the General stated at the French Mayors' Congress. As he said, France possesses "all the economic and demographic strengths to restrain the Moscow regime," but lacks "the strength of soul to accept that it will need to harm itself" for self-protection reasons.
Fabien Mandon had stated in an interview with the newspaper Ouest-France that France "is seriously preparing" for military threats, and that its armed forces must be ready for a potential conflict between NATO countries and Russia. The General also accused Moscow, without evidence, of destabilizing the situation in the country over the "bedbug invasion" in France.
"Russia is a country that may be tempted to continue the war on our continent, and this is the defining element in everything I am preparing," added the General who took over the leadership of the French armed forces on September 1. Moscow has the "perception of a collectively weak Europe," according to General Mandon, who observes a "release in the use of force" from the Russian side. However, "we have everything to be confident in ourselves," he stressed, reminding that from an economic, demographic, and industrial point of view, Europeans surpass Russia. The defense budget plan provides for an increase to 57.1 billion euros for 2026, an increase of 13%, bringing defense spending to 2.2% of GDP, according to French Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin.
Macron's moves
Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron presented a voluntary military service, reforming a pre-existing program so that France can better respond to a more unstable geopolitical situation. The French President opposes compulsory national service, which was abolished by then-President Jacques Chirac in 1996.
"Returning to the old system would be neither serious nor useful. The armed forces no longer have the capacity to train 600,000–800,000 young people every year," stressed Macron, who presented the Service National Universel (SNU), a youth military program that never had significant appeal. This is a service that will be based on volunteering, however, in the event of a major national crisis, the President and Parliament will be able to request the compulsory participation of those deemed fit during the journée de mobilisation, the new name for the classic "defense and citizenship day." The new program will last 10 months and will include, among other things, one month of basic military training and nine months in a unit, where participants will perform the same missions as active personnel exclusively within France and its overseas territories.
Volunteers will wear a uniform, have military status, and a salary, with a minimum monthly compensation of 800 euros. From 2027, the program will be extended to bodies such as the Gendarmerie, the Paris Firefighters, and the Marseille Naval Firefighters. France aims to secure 100,000 reservists by 2030, up from about 47,000 today. Thus, the total military strength will reach about 210,000 by 2030. Macron will present the measures during a visit to the 27th Mountain Infantry Brigade in Varces, in the French Alps. The Elysée cited polls showing high support for the armed forces from young people aged 18–25, who will benefit from the increased defense budgets: from 32 billion euros in 2017 to an expected 64 billion euros in 2027.
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