For the past twenty years, Southeast Asia has faced a conflict that is no longer open, but has left behind escalating tensions.
The tensions stem from actions moving in a "gray zone," which are implemented gradually and systematically, and constitute a key tool for China to expand its territorial claims without the use of military force, Modern Diplomacy notes in an analysis. The gray zone functions as a dynamic that defines the new security framework in the Indo-Pacific.
The gray zone is not merely a strategy but a mechanism for achieving advantages without escalation that would lead to war. For China, this approach serves the slow adjustment of neighboring states to changes in the status quo. It aligns with the concept of coercive diplomacy, where limited pressure can change attitudes without open conflict.
China avoids the cost of a war and instead uses its coast guard, maritime militias, and civilian research vessels. The China Coast Guard (CCG) and the People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) are the main tools for operations below the threshold of war, equipped with large vessels, modern radars, even lasers or water cannons, while maintaining the narrative of "law enforcement."
Increased presence around the Spratlys and Paracels
Since 2013, the presence of the CCG and PAFMM has increased, particularly after the acceleration of artificial island construction. This is a pattern of "salami-slicing," meaning small steps that gradually limit the operational space of other states.
Chinese vessels have carried out dangerous maneuvers against ships from the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, blocking resupply, chasing fishing vessels, or using lasers to obstruct observations. The incidents are aggressive enough to exert pressure but not so much as to provoke an immediate military reaction from the US or other allies.
The gradual pressure forces smaller countries to re-evaluate the cost of resistance. The Philippines have repeatedly been subjected to water cannon attacks, yet without a substantial change in the balance of power. China presents almost every incident as a legitimate action by its coast guard to protect its national territory. These narratives are part of the "three warfares" strategy: public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare.
Economic and geopolitical significance of the region
The South China Sea is critical for international trade, as over one-third of global maritime traffic passes through it. Influence over this route enhances China's geoeconomic position. The area also holds significant energy reserves, while China seeks to strengthen its role as a maritime power and reduce the gravity of the US. This is why it is difficult for it to abandon the tactic of the gray zone.
Reactions are not uniform. The Philippines are the most intense in their reactions. Vietnam is strengthening its navy. Malaysia remains publicly silent but strengthens its diplomacy.
Uneven power limits deterrence capabilities. Most countries only possess deterrence by denial, not by punishment. The US participates with "Freedom of Navigation" operations, but these are primarily reactive.
Legal and military difficulties in response
The tactic is difficult to counter:
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The actions are not considered a use of force under international law.
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The coast guards and militias are not counted as armed forces.
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The use of fishing vessels with modifications makes it difficult to prove state involvement.
The ambiguity allows China to change the reality at sea without provoking open conflict.
Risk of inadvertent escalation
Large Chinese vessels could collide with other ships, causing casualties and rapid escalation. The strategy only works as long as everyone exercises restraint. An accident could trigger a crisis within hours.
Impact on regional stability
The gray zone in the South China Sea constitutes a serious threat to stability. It creates pressure without war, but changes the political and legal reality by exploiting ambiguities and power imbalances.
Enhanced security mechanisms are required:
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Coordination of coast guards.
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Protocols for incident management.
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Technological upgrade.
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More active international legal diplomacy.
Without innovation in defensive approaches, the region will remain in a state of uncertainty, and the Chinese strategy will become increasingly effective. Stability requires legal clarity, balance of power, and the ability to resist silent pressure, not just simple avoidance of war.
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