The French Left is in complete disarray ahead of the 2027 presidential elections. The "newcomer," whose name is Raphaël Glucksmann, and the "old guard" (Jean-Luc Mélenchon) of the faction are openly clashing over leadership, turning an internal disagreement into a civil war that paralyzes any attempt at consensus. While the two opposing wings undercut each other, the only one who is truly strengthened is the nationalist Jordan Bardella, who is widening his lead in public opinion.
The Left is divided
The "old-school leftist" Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the more centrist pro-NATO Raphaël Glucksmann are in conflict, while several analysts monitoring the election race predict that the depth of the rivalry between the two men may further divide the Left—undermining their chances of victory in 2027—instead of leading to the emergence of a consensus candidate for the critical second round for the Elysée. Unless one manages to completely overshadow the other, the Left will remain trapped in a civil war for the next year.
"Previous presidential elections have shown that two candidates cannot coexist on the Left without causing problems for each other," said Erwan Lestrohan, research director at the French polling institute Odoxa.
The two men could hardly be more different. Mélenchon is a 74-year-old hardline leftist who has run for president three times, coming close to the second round in 2022 with a campaign that called for increasing the minimum wage, lowering the retirement age to 60, and withdrawing from NATO.
In contrast, Glucksmann, 46, is a Member of the European Parliament and an ardent supporter of strengthening Europe's military power. He is also open to billions of euros in spending cuts to align France's troubled public finances and believes that the country's controversial pension system needs to be reformed.
Given their ideological differences, the tone of the confrontation is not surprising, having devolved into mudslinging. On his favored medium—his blog—Mélenchon has called Glucksmann a "fanatical warmonger" and a "darling of journalistic emptiness."
Counterattacking on social media and in interviews, Glucksmann has called Mélenchon a "fake patriot who prefers Kremlin propaganda" and has presented the conflict between them as a battle for "the vision of democracy," accusing the leader of the far-left France Unbowed of sugar-coating views regarding the authoritarian regimes in Moscow and Beijing.
Poll risks
In recent weeks, poll after poll shows that the far-right could face a left-wing candidate in the second round in the spring of 2027.
"There is a solid prospect for a leftist to make it to the second round," Lestrohan said.
For Mélenchon or Glucksmann, qualifying for the second round would be a massive moment. They would have the chance not only to claim the Elysée but also to shape the future of the French Left, joining the pantheon of historic progressive figures like Jean Jaurès and François Mitterrand.
For now, however, the most likely scenario is that they could become the first candidates in modern French history to lose to the far-right. Neither of them seems capable of defeating Bardella, who is considered a likely candidate due to Le Pen's exclusion.
A year and a half before the vote, Glucksmann appears stronger in the second round. According to an Odoxa poll published last week, he is projected to lose with 42% against 58% to Bardella, while Mélenchon is predicted to be overwhelmingly defeated with 26% against 74%.
All potential candidates from the centre-right governing coalition seem likely to be eliminated in the first round, with the exception of Édouard Philippe—Emmanuel Macron's first Prime Minister in 2017—although his numbers have dropped significantly over the last year.
Substance and strategy
Radically different views come with radically different strategies.
Glucksmann is convinced that the left can win by attracting back the moderates and former Socialists who abandoned the party for Macron's centrist movement in 2017. Research by Ipsos showed that Glucksmann managed to attract 17% of voters who had voted for Macron when he led a joint list with the Socialists and finished a respectable third in the 2024 European elections.
Mélenchon, on the other hand, believes that the decisive votes are in the working-class urban areas where turnout is low, but those who ultimately vote have massively supported him in recent years. True to his philosophy of "slow and steady"—Mélenchon calls himself an "electoral tortoise" and keeps small tortoise statuettes in his office room—he has increased his percentage in every presidential race, despite his volatile character.
Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. Mélenchon may be undermined by his reputation as a divisive firebrand, Lestrohan notes. "As for Raphaël Glucksmann, his vulnerability stems from the fact that he remains relatively unknown, and we do not yet know how capable he is of campaigning, promoting ideas, and, above all, standing up to the opposition," he added. This concern about Glucksmann has already begun to spread through the ranks of the Socialists. Although the party supported the MEP in the last two European elections, the idea of promoting a candidate from outside the party—Glucksmann leads his own political platform, Place Publique—has caused suspicion.
After weeks of media absence, Glucksmann reappeared last month when he debated with the far-right former candidate Éric Zemmour. His performance was judged disappointing, including by himself, who admitted that he "could have done better."
"There is a scenario where all this turns into a nightmare," a Socialist advisor who opposes the Glucksmann candidacy told Politico on condition of anonymity. "Glucksmann will be crushed by a political beast like Mélenchon. But there is no chance that Mélenchon will get ahead of Bardella."
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