China imported 389,000 barrels of oil per day from Venezuela in 2025, an amount corresponding to approximately 4% of the country's total seaborne crude imports.
Independent Chinese refineries are expected to pivot toward oil sources such as Iran in the coming months to replace disrupted Venezuelan shipments. This shift follows the country's pivot away from the United States, according to traders and analysts.
Caracas and Washington have agreed to export up to $2 billion in Venezuelan crude to the US, President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday, after American forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend.
This agreement is expected to restrict Venezuelan supplies to China, reducing a primary source of cheap oil for independent Chinese refineries, known as "teapots," according to analysts. China, the world's largest crude importer, is a major buyer of discounted oil subject to sanctions from countries such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
Abundant Russian and Iranian quantities
"The Venezuelan drama hits independent Chinese refineries hardest, as they may lose access to heavy barrels with deep discounts," said June Goh, an analyst at Sparta Commodities, according to Reuters.
"However, as there are abundant Russian and Iranian feedstocks available, along with Venezuelan cargoes already at sea, we do not foresee that teapots will need to raise their bids for non-sanctioned barrels, as doing so would not make economic sense," she added.
China imported 389,000 barrels per day of oil from Venezuela in 2025, an amount representing approximately 4% of the country's total seaborne crude imports, according to data from Kpler. At least a dozen sanctioned tankers that loaded in December departed Venezuelan territorial waters in early January, carrying approximately 12 million barrels of crude and fuel, as Reuters has reported.
However, Asia-bound loadings from Venezuela's main ports have halted since January 1, according to shipping data. With supply tightening, sellers of Venezuelan Merey for immediate delivery offered cargoes at discounts of about $10 per barrel against ICE Brent, down from approximately $15 the previous month, according to one trader, though transactions have essentially frozen. Another trader reported that offers were moving at minus $11 per barrel.
Floating storage for 75 days
Venezuelan crude stocks currently on vessels in Asia are sufficient to cover about 75 days of Chinese demand, limiting any immediate surge in demand for alternative grades, according to Xu Muyu, a senior analyst at Kpler. The US military's Southern Command released footage on Wednesday that it said showed American troops in helicopters seizing a tanker linked to Venezuela. Teapots utilizing Venezuelan oil are likely to turn to Russian and Iranian supplies in March and April, while China may also draw volumes from non-sanctioned sources such as Canada, Brazil, Iraq, and Colombia, according to the same analyst. Buyers have not yet begun actively seeking alternatives, market sources said, with Iranian Heavy being offered at a discount of about $10 per barrel against ICE Brent, making it the cheapest and most abundant alternative. Teapots may also consider Middle Eastern grades, such as Iraqi Basrah, according to a Singapore-based trader. Meanwhile, discounts for Canadian crudes like Cold Lake and Access Western Blend exported via the Trans Mountain pipeline widened by more than $2 this week, reaching $4 to $5 per barrel against ICE Brent for delivery to China in April, as markets price in lower US demand, according to traders.
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