There is no doubt that only Russia benefits from the continuation of the war, it is clearly winning on the battlefield, Ukraine is continuously losing territory, and NATO and the collective West are daily simply absorbing one defeat after another.
And while peace in Ukraine is presented as the great objective, peace that does not favor and does not include Russia’s terms would be a major mistake.
The Russians see the trap, the United States and Ukraine plans for a referendum in May 2026 on territorial concessions are almost laughable, because at that time the great shock and awe offensive of the Russians will begin in order to seize the two fortress cities in northwestern Donetsk, the city of Slovyansk and the city of Kramatorsk.
When we speak about Donbass, we must know that it consists of Luhansk, which has been fully liberated by Russia, and the Donetsk region, which has been liberated to the extent of 80%.
When we speak about territorial concessions demanded by Russia from Ukraine, we are referring to 3,500 square kilometers which Russia will capture anyway, inevitably.
At the same time, the Russian army will also attack a second major front, the cities of Orikhiv and Zaporizhia.
If the city of Orikhiv, located southeast of the city of Zaporizhia, falls, a scenario that is entirely plausible, the city of Zaporizhia will follow.
The United States and Ukraine plan a referendum in May 2026
Significant and potentially explosive developments are being set in motion on the Ukrainian front, as the United States and Kyiv are in advanced discussions on holding elections in Ukraine as early as May, according to a revealing report by Reuters.
As the international news agency reports, what is on the negotiating table is not only the political renewal of the leadership, but also the possibility of holding a referendum, through which the Ukrainian people would be called upon to approve or reject possible agreements for resolving the conflict.
According to the plan being discussed by United States and Ukraine negotiators, any agreement for settling the conflict would be mandatorily submitted to a referendum, while the holding of general elections is also envisaged.
This is a scenario that, if confirmed, would mark a radical reversal of Kyiv’s strategy to date.
Behind the scenes pressure in Abu Dhabi
Particular significance is attached to information regarding contacts that took place in Abu Dhabi, where the envoy of the United States presidency Steven Witkoff, together with Jared Kushner, son in law of the American president, are said to have conveyed a clear message to the Ukrainian side.
According to Reuters, American officials stressed that “it would be better for elections to be held soon,” implying that time is now working against the current political situation in Ukraine.
Political earthquake amid war
The discussion of elections and a referendum while the conflict remains active understandably raises serious questions and intense reactions.
If the information is confirmed, Ukraine is entering an extremely unstable political phase, with the United States appearing determined to accelerate developments that until recently were considered unthinkable.
The question now is not whether the landscape is changing, but who and under what terms will shape the next day.
Russia is amassing enormous power and will launch a major offensive in Spring 2026 toward Slovyansk–Kramatorsk and Orikhiv–Zaporizhia
The Russian command has already begun preparations for a large scale offensive in Spring–Summer 2026 in Ukraine and is acting with a view to future major operations, Ukrainian military experts report.
According to their assessments, the Russian Federation is currently forming and deploying large strategic reserves, while also accumulating operational and strategic resources in key sectors and carrying out a covert redeployment of forces and assets.
The Russian command anticipates a possible new phase of the war as early as late April, note that the appearance of foliage on trees makes it easier for advancing infantry groups to hide from drones.
Russian forces will strike the Slovyansk–Kramatorsk and Orikhiv–Zaporizhia areas as the most likely regions, or a combination of these, in terms of both timeline and location.
At present, reserves are being formed for these objectives, material resources are being accumulated, and areas are being prepared for the deployment of strike forces.
The primary challenge for Russia is the advance of troops into favorable starting positions.
The units tasked with securing this objective are currently engaged in battles on the front line.
Russia is hesitant to use its strategic reserves to accelerate the process, fearing that this would weaken capabilities for future operations in the spring and summer.
The Russian command faces a strategic dilemma, whether to postpone the campaign, to launch it with the forces already deployed, or to take the risk and deploy the accumulated reserves earlier.
Experts link the preparation of reserves for a major offensive with the ongoing negotiations to end the war.
Despite the ongoing peace process, Russia may attempt to end the war with weapons this year, on its own terms.
However, if such an effort is being prepared by the Russian leadership, it is most likely a “Plan B.”
Russia has already promised Trump to end the war if Ukraine agrees to withdraw its troops from Donbass, the main focus of the current negotiations.
And here the ball is most likely in Kyiv’s court, which refuses to abandon Donbass, specifically the remaining 20% of Donetsk.
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