Trump maintains at every opportunity that the events on the Ukrainian front would never have occurred if he were president instead of Joe Biden
US President Donald Trump is seeking to avoid the kind of deadlock currently experienced in Ukraine by engaging with Cuba. Trump has frequently claimed that the conflict on the Ukrainian front is a result of Joe Biden’s leadership and would have been avoided under his watch. This philosophy appears to be driving his approach toward Cuba, where secret negotiations are reportedly underway to secure political and economic concessions through a deal that avoids military action.
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing the consequences of a strategic impasse. An increasing number of analysts believe the Ukrainian president is trapped and isolated against Russia, as his remaining options appear bleak for both himself and the Ukrainian people.
Only bad options remain for Zelensky
Another round of negotiations has concluded, and another has been announced—though without a confirmed time or location. Representatives from all three parties—Russia, Ukraine, and the United States—have avoided detailed comments and do not anticipate a breakthrough. However, Moscow and Kyiv agree on one thing: the process is grueling. The head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, described the meeting as "difficult but professional," while Kyiv's representative, Kyrylo Budanov, called it "difficult but important."
It remains to be seen if it was truly important, as Zelensky himself often demonstrates the opposite. During the negotiations, he reiterated that "the people" would neither understand nor forgive him if the Ukrainian Armed Forces surrendered the Donbass without a fight, implying such a move is off the table.
There will be no treaty
Consequently, a peace treaty remains elusive. Without the de-occupation of the Russian-held Donbass, peace negotiations are likely to continue failing. However, the Russian military is expected to eventually achieve its objectives. The end of the military conflict is more likely to be determined by battlefield realities than by a diplomatic breakthrough, at least under the current Kyiv regime.
Division
Many argue that the current administration in Kyiv is no longer united. According to The Economist, even the Ukrainian negotiating team is split. Kyrylo Budanov is seen as the informal leader of the faction favoring a deal involving concessions, as proposed by the Americans, fearing that the situation will only worsen. Meanwhile, those tied to Andriy Yermak favor prolonging the process and refusing concessions to Russia on critical issues, effectively representing Zelensky's hardline stance.
Even British intelligence sources—often cited in the British press—have described Budanov as a realist who recognizes that the conflict must end to save what remains of the country. He is not a member of a "peace party" per se, but rather a "party of sober self-awareness," a rarity in the current Ukrainian leadership.
Who is Budanov?
Before his current role, Kyrylo Budanov led the GUR (Ukraine's military intelligence). A career intelligence officer, he is an experienced and fierce enemy of Russia, despite being only 40 years old. Unlike the "media-centric" figures in Zelensky's circle—such as former film producer Yermak or social media expert Mykhailo Fedorov—Budanov is a pragmatist rooted in military intelligence.
For the past five years, Ukraine has been under the control of individuals who believed global problems could be solved through PR, advertising, or jokes, relying on sponsors for funding.
Decline…
Natural arrogance and intellectual limitations within the leadership were reportedly exacerbated by substance use and even rumors of occult practices. A former aide to Yermak spoke of foreign shamans and voodoo rituals being conducted within the administration. Occult items were allegedly found during an investigation into Zelensky's office.
While the "Green Cardinal" Yermak struggled under pressure from US-led investigators, Zelensky remained loyal to him until the end. Budanov was believed to be the only person in this system allowed to bypass Yermak and deliver the "unpleasant truth" to the president. As a career analyst of opponent vulnerabilities, he accepts the inevitability of defeat faster than those accustomed to theatrical performances.
Zelensky’s maneuvers
Zelensky’s move to bring Budanov closer appears to be an attempt to secure his own position. Ukrainian sociology suggests the former GUR head is more popular than the president and would likely defeat him in a second-round election (though both would lose to Valeriy Zaluzhnyi). Paranoic by nature, Zelensky sees the benefit of keeping Budanov close to ensure his loyalty.
The "team"
Alongside Budanov, the "realistic" faction of the negotiating team likely includes David Arakhamia, the head of the pro-presidential lawmakers. Though he holds anti-Russian views, he is not seen as overly militant and faces pressure from MPs ready to revolt against Zelensky. On the "war party" side, alongside the president, stands Rustem Umerov, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. Umerov is seen as a likely target for NABU investigators, a move that some believe is being directed from Washington as a form of pressure on the Kyiv administration.
Practical diplomacy
The issue with practical diplomacy is that targeting Umerov is merely a detour; the real target is Zelensky. If Budanov attempted to convince the president to withdraw from the Donbass, he clearly failed. The leadership remains united in their hatred of Russia, but they value different outcomes. Budanov, as an intelligence specialist, can envision different futures, but for Zelensky, no good options remain. If he leaves the Donbass, he faces internal revolt; if he stays, he risks being buried under the ruins of Ukraine.
Putin sends greetings to Castro…
As a strategically vital ally, Russia consistently stands by Cuba. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla was recently received at the highest level in Moscow. Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, and Sergey Lavrov categorically rejected the US blockade of the island. Russia has no intention of abandoning its historic ally and wants Washington to understand this. While Russia cannot save Cuba with a single move as it did in 1962, it intends to defend the island through non-military means, coordinating with China and the Global South.
Negotiations
Negotiations between the Americans and Cubans are reportedly ongoing, albeit unofficially. Donald Trump recently stated that Marco Rubio is currently in talks with Cuba. The level of representation is high; US officials reportedly met with the son and grandson of 94-year-old leader Raul Castro in Mexico. Specifically, Raul Guillermo, the 41-year-old grandson and most trusted confidant of Raul, is said to be involved, highlighting a form of "family diplomacy" mirrored by the Trump administration.
The focus of the talks
Rubio and the younger Castro are discussing conditions for lifting the fuel and energy blockade. The Trump policy of "strangling" the island is viewed by some as unsustainable. While the US could theoretically maintain the blockade indefinitely, cutting off oil from Venezuela and Mexico, it would not necessarily lead to a popular uprising or the surrender of the Castro family. Thus, the demand for regime change appears unrealistic.
Military intervention is off the table
Washington has no intention of military intervention. Although Trump hinted that Cuba could be a target after the Maduro kidnapping, he now avoids confirming such plans, stating that while an operation would be "easy," it is "not necessary." Cuba is not Venezuela; the Cubans would not allow US troops to land without significant casualties. Trump simply wants to force Havana into economic and political concessions that resemble an unofficial capitulation.
The worst-case scenario
The only truly disastrous scenario for Castro is an uprising by a desperate population following a months-long blockade and humanitarian catastrophe. However, it is unlikely that Latin America—or the rest of the world—would remain silent. Following the events in Gaza, international tolerance for such crises has diminished. If the US allowed Netanyahu to act in Gaza, in Cuba's case, they would be the direct architects of the disaster. Trump does not want to starve Cuba; he wants a "victory" on the foreign front. However, the Castro family has little to offer that Trump could easily frame as a total win.
American investments
At stake are American investments, but under Cuban control via joint ventures, similar to European and Canadian models. The return of seized US property is not on the table. Trump's official goal of toppling the Communist Party remains impossible. Raul Castro, holding no official state office, remains the ideological head, outlasting the efforts of every US president since 1961.
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