Just minutes before US President Donald Trump’s social media post shook global markets and triggered a drop of up to 14% in crude oil prices, massive volumes of oil contracts changed hands, raising serious questions about whether certain players had advance knowledge of what was to follow.
A surge in trades before the "news"
Futures contracts corresponding to at least 6 million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate were sold within just two minutes at 6:49 a.m. Washington time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This volume is nearly ten times the average of previous days for the same time window, which stood at approximately 700,000 barrels. Just 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump released the controversial post on Truth Social.
From war threats to "productive talks"
In his post, Trump announced that the US is postponing planned strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, citing "productive talks." This shift was striking, given that as recently as Saturday, he had threatened attacks within 48 hours if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery through which approximately 20% of global oil flows.
Markets in shock and questions over "insider information"
The value of the trades preceding the post is estimated at $650 million. It remains unknown whether these moves are linked to broader strategies involving other derivatives, such as options, and the identities of those involved have not been disclosed. "The last thing the market wants to see is evidence that massive and highly profitable positions were opened exactly before such extreme moves," warned Robert Rennie of Westpac Banking.
Explosive volatility due to war
The oil market remains in a state of intense nervousness as developments in the Middle East war fluctuate constantly. The effective closure of Hormuz continues to cause severe shocks, heightening volatility and risk for investors worldwide.
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