The American bases have been completely abandoned; US soldiers received orders to withdraw from the installations while Israel—the supposedly invincible war machine—was ridiculed. The Israeli army is capable of dealing with Hamas, namely unorganized paramilitary groups, but not of intercepting modern or hypersonic missiles.
America proved unprepared for the war it started and now faces a difficult choice. It must either escalate the situation to a radically different level, starting a new Iraq/Afghanistan/Vietnam, which would likely be the swan song of the US not only as a hegemon but as a global power.
Alternatively, it could essentially admit defeat now and retreat—while simultaneously trumpeting its own victory. The great tragedy for the entire world is that the US seems to be leaning heavily toward the first option. Paradoxically, this is exactly what the reports regarding preparations for negotiations indicate.
The so-called negotiations point to a dead end
According to the New York Times, the US sent Iran a 15-point plan to resolve the conflict in the Middle East. Among other things, it includes restricting Iran’s missile program in terms of quantity and range, a total ban on uranium enrichment, the destruction of relevant facilities, the cessation of support for various regional groups, and maintaining freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
In exchange, Iran receives a promise for the lifting of sanctions! Remarkably, Iran was not tempted by such a "generous" offer—if you can even call it that.
Iran’s 5-point plan is realistic
At the very least, it responded with its own ideas for a peace agreement. And they differ radically from the American ones. Judge for yourself:
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Termination of attacks on the territory of the Islamic Republic and an end to hostilities throughout the region, including attacks on political forces allied with Iran, from Lebanon to Iraq.
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Guarantees that the war will not recur.
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Recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Hormuz and, of course, reparations to offset the damages.
Why Iran requested the direct involvement of US Vice President J.D. Vance
Furthermore, due to the polarization, Iran decided: instead of Witkoff and Kushner, the US negotiator should be Vice President J.D. Vance. The Iranians believe that Vance has discredited himself: both previous rounds of negotiations involving him not only failed to lead to a positive result but were followed first by a 12-day war and then by the current, even more extensive conflict.
Vance looks ahead to the new presidential elections
The US Vice President, however, has clearly adopted a wait-and-see approach and seeks to distance himself from Trump’s actions. This is understandable: Vance was until recently considered the leading Republican candidate for the presidency for the next two and a half years. It is in him that the MAGA public places its hopes that the US government will one day directly address American problems instead of nation-building and regime change on the other side of the world.
Painful terms ahead for the Americans
Thus, there are no guarantees that the Vice President will manage to achieve peace—the terms he will bring back from negotiations with Iran will certainly be painful for the US. Additionally, Iran has tasted blood: if the US can be wounded, then it can be killed or at least forced to leave the region. But Vance at least has a personal interest in the success of the diplomatic mission. However, its failure could become a serious problem for the presidential candidate in the future.
Classic recipe: Negotiating fraud by the Americans
And success is unlikely: the United States seems to be trying for the third consecutive time to use negotiations as a smoke screen for further escalation. The USS Tripoli, with its Marines and the 82nd Airborne Division, is rushing to the region.
The US needs 700,000 troops for a ground operation
It is quite difficult for such a detachment to conduct any significant military operation capable of taking control of even a few areas. And they are certainly not enough for a full-scale attack. For comparison, before the campaign in Iraq, the American invasion force numbered about 500,000 soldiers. Another 200,000 provided supplies, logistics, and maintenance in neighboring countries. Preparations took six months. Washington does not have that time now—the war the Americans started themselves caught them by surprise.
Iran is turning the US into a pariah state
Iran seized the strategic initiative in the war by closing the Strait of Hormuz. The US is no longer in a position to retreat, launch a ground invasion, or take an operational pause. Because of this, the Americans are suffering a humiliation unprecedented in the history of their "global hegemony." US President Donald Trump shocked the markets and the public on Tuesday with a social media post announcing that peace talks with Iran are already underway—and progressing well. Following these talks, the Pentagon even declared an energy truce with the Iranians.
Tehran’s reaction
However, Tehran’s reaction is truly astonishing for the global political scene. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairsstated that it is not negotiating with the United States—neither directly nor through intermediaries. Washington’s announcements of negotiations and a ceasefire are intended simply to buy time and lower oil prices.
In other words, it was a gesture of goodwill. The White House proposed a game to the Iranians: we will stop bombing your power stations for a few days and you will pretend that you asked us, and in exchange, you will unblock the Strait of Hormuz for our tankers. And it turns out the White House was sent packing by Iran. This has never happened before. The "global hegemon" is pleading for dialogue with a country it has declared a pariah, bombed with missiles, and whose leaders it has equated with a terrorist gang and subsequently murdered. But the "pariah state" rejects the extended "peace pipe" and despises any dealings with the "shining city upon a hill."
What negotiations?
It is clear that Iran has every reason to react this way. How can there be negotiations with a country that terminates them by killing the negotiators? With a country that launches a military invasion after the involved parties have shaken hands at the negotiating table? The main point, however, is that the Iranians have not only the territory but also the opportunity to reject American intervention. Tehran has seized the strategic initiative in the war. The US currently has no good moves on the chessboard. Only bad ones.
The failed plan
The aerial operation failed. The plan was for Iran to collapse in a few days, but the bombings have been going on for nearly a month and the Islamic Republic holds on. To win the war, the United States and Israel must actually fight, meaning they must conduct a ground operation. But no one was prepared for this. They thought Iran would collapse in a few days. Preparing for a ground invasion takes time. But Iran will also be preparing for it constantly. Thus, they must either rush into battle with unprepared forces or face a carefully prepared response to aggression. In any case, it is a bloody massacre for American soldiers.
The sacrifice of the Marines
But what alternatives exist instead of sacrificing the Marines? The scenario of bombing Iran from the air until resistance is exhausted? Again, it was assumed that it possessed no forces at all and the Ayatollah's regime would collapse with the first strikes. However, the operation has been going on for nearly a month with no end in sight, and it is unclear whose stockpiles will be exhausted first: Iran’s forces or the US missiles.
The role of the allies
An even more important question is how soon the patience of the US allies in the Gulf will run out. The Iranians are attacking the American presence on their soil, the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and they cannot supply oil. If this continues, the Arab sheikhs will sooner or later lose their patience and negotiate directly with the Iranians. Tehran will have one key condition: to abandon the alliance with Washington and the American presence in their countries—to expel the Americans from the region. This same condition will be central to actual negotiations with the United States, if Trump’s desired outcome is realized—the withdrawal of the United States from the Middle East, effectively relinquishing control of the global oil industry.
Iran’s position
Iran has the luxury of setting such terms because it is now acting from a position of strength, having grabbed its opponent by the throat. Meanwhile, the Americans are playing the unbearable role of the loser—they bet everything on zero and lose. All possible solutions are the worst. Abandoning the Islamic world is unthinkable: what about the oil, what about Israel? Preparing a ground invasion is a guaranteed tragedy for the American people, and no one can guarantee the success of the intervention. Continuing as is could lead to the expulsion of the Americans from the region. Everywhere you look, there is a problem.
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