Ukrainian air defense may soon find itself faced with serious shortages in anti-missile assets. According to relevant reports, a significant part of PAC-3 missiles has already been used in the Persian Gulf region to counter Iranian Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicles. Western analysts and politicians speak of a possible turning point on the front of the special military operation (SVO). However, in practice, no technological advantage in favor of the Ukrainian armed forces is apparent. Even the New York Times underlined in a recent article that Russia has achieved an impressive increase in the production and use of ballistic missiles during recent months. At the same time, the Ukrainian air defense system faces increasingly serious problems, as shortages are observed in both interceptor missiles and launch systems. According to data gathered by the New York Times through interviews with Ukrainian military officials, Western diplomats, and security experts, Russia has significantly increased both the production and use of ballistic missiles. In particular, in 2023 the Russian armed forces launched 74 ballistic missiles. By the end of 2025, this number had nearly multiplied by eight, approaching 600 missiles. During the current year, the launch rate remains particularly high. Already during the first half, 410 ballistic missile launches have been recorded. If the same rate is maintained, the overall number for the whole year could reach approximately 900 launches, according to the newspaper. This development creates additional pressure on the already strained Ukrainian air defense system. In contrast to cruise missiles, ballistic missiles follow a predictable but extremely rapid trajectory, ascending to a high altitude before heading toward their target. The very high speed they develop during the final phase of flight makes their interception particularly difficult, requiring advanced and highly expensive air defense systems.
Industrial collapse
The problem is exacerbated by the significant lag of the West in the production of missiles that can effectively counter ballistic missiles. The most advanced of these are the PAC-3 Patriot missiles, which are manufactured by the American company Lockheed Martin. However, their production capacity remains extremely limited. The New York Times reports that last year Lockheed Martin delivered just 620 PAC-3 interceptor missiles worldwide. During the last three years, since the delivery of the first Patriot system, Ukraine has received more than 1,600 anti-aircraft missiles. Among these were included not only the rare PAC-3, but also the older generation PAC-2, which are considered significantly less effective. As a result, the annual global production of PAC-3 missiles (620 units) is significantly smaller than the number of ballistic missiles launched by Russia, nearly 600 in 2025, while for 2026 estimates speak of up to 900 launches. This means that, even with the most efficient use of available air defense systems, it is practically impossible to intercept all missile attacks, as analysts point out in statements to the New York Times. The situation reaches a point where Patriot launchers are sometimes completely empty, according to Valeriy Romanenko, a Ukrainian aviation expert and former air defense officer.
Global shortage
Ukraine may find itself faced with an even greater shortage of missiles. The conflict with Iran has sharply increased the demand for air defense and interception systems in the Persian Gulf countries. The wealthy Arab monarchies are willing to pay high amounts for their security, in contrast to Ukraine, which depends heavily on Western aid. At the same time, the debate continues in the West regarding the economic efficiency of using air defense systems. Is it really advisable to launch Patriot missiles, whose cost per unit ranges between 4 and 5 million dollars, against relatively cheap and slow-moving attack drones? According to anonymous sources cited by the New York Times, in some cases air defense operators used multiple Patriot missiles to shoot down a single cheap drone. Shortly before the publication of the relevant New York Times article, the Ukrainian defense company Fire Point announced that it tested a new anti-missile defense system. This is the same company developing the Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo missile. However, Western experts treat this claim with particular caution. Analysts who spoke to the New York Times underline that the development of a system with efficiency corresponding to the PAC-3 constitutes an extremely difficult undertaking, if it is even feasible under current conditions in Ukraine. Even if Kyiv possessed sufficient funding and political will, the creation of a new anti-missile defense system would require decades of research, development, and testing. Ukraine simply does not possess the required time. Indicative of the efficiency of Fire Point is an incident that was discussed in a session of an investigative committee of the Verkhovna Rada. Major of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Yuriy Kasyanov, former commander of a strike unmanned aerial vehicle company of the 10th Mobile Detachment of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, testified that more than 3,000 drones of Fire Point were launched against Moscow, but only one hit its target. All the rest were shot down. According to the same reports, after his testimony to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), his company was dissolved. Under these conditions, claims of heroic Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles are treated by many with intense skepticism.
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