Intense activity is being observed at the Strait of Hormuz. At a time when Iran is effectively breaking the American blockade by urgently funneling the first 5 million barrels of crude oil into international markets, international shipowners are engaging in a "race" to catch the opening of the Strait. At the forefront of this global mobilization is the Greek tanker "Kapodistrias 21," which is performing a 180-degree turn in the Indian Ocean, abandoning its route to Africa to "lock in" the golden returns of the new freight rates in the Middle East.
Turning towards the Middle East
The Suezmax-type tanker Kapodistrias 21 made a sharp turn on Monday (June 15, 2026), as shown by ship tracking data, changing its next port of call from Gabon to Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. The Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) Coslucky Lake, which was initially heading toward South Africa, changed course on the same day and is also signaling towards Fujairah. These diversions occurred just hours after the US and Iran reached an interim peace agreement, committing in a draft memorandum to end blockades and reopen the straits. The agreement is expected to be signed on Friday (June 19, 2026). This critical maritime passage, responsible for one-fifth of the global supply of oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), has remained effectively closed since late February, when the US and Israel struck Iran for the first time. Although many shipowners are still taking a wait-and-see approach, some with a higher risk appetite are preparing to secure charters to enter or exit the Strait. Those who move first may benefit from higher freight rates due to the risk premium that still accompanies this specific commercial activity.
The empty tankers Kapodistrias 21 (sailing under the Maltese flag and owned by HN5051 Ltd., according to the shipping database Equasis, which shares the same contact details as its management company, Ensel SA, based in Athens) and Coslucky Lake (sailing under the Hong Kong flag and managed by units of the Chinese state-owned shipowner Cosco) were seen turning back toward the Middle East this week, having previously declared Africa as their destination. The number of empty VLCCs waiting in the Gulf of Oman, just outside Hormuz, increased to about 60 this week, according to shipbrokers, up from about 36 at the beginning of the month. The availability of empty tankers with the capability for quick entry into the Gulf to pick up new cargoes will be decisive for the resumption of oil flow to global customers.
Iranian tankers carry 5 million barrels of oil
Meanwhile, at least three Iranian tankers, carrying nearly five million barrels of crude oil, have exited the US Navy blockade at Hormuz. This is the first such shipment abroad in two months, as shipowners carefully reposition their vessels ahead of the signing of the US-Iran agreement in Geneva. Two supertankers, Diona and Hero 2—which are owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) and are subject to US sanctions—managed to pass the perimeter of the American Navy blockade, carrying a total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil, according to shipping data from the company Kpler. A third tanker linked to Iran, carrying 1 million barrels of Iranian crude, crossed the blockade line on Wednesday, according to Kpler data. "Their apparent withdrawal from the exclusion zone suggests that other tankers active in trade with Iran are preparing to resume their activities," said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a senior shipping analyst at the company Windward.
Caution in the shipping industry
The prospect of reopening Hormuz prompted some shipowners—hit by months of skyrocketing freight costs and war risk insurance premiums—to begin repositioning ships toward Gulf ports, expecting a sharp increase in demand for inventory replenishment. However, the majority remains more cautious and continues to take a wait-and-see approach. "The shipping industry views the news with cautious skepticism rather than celebration," reported Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Insurers are sticking to high war risk insurance premiums, demanding "irrefutable evidence" that the maritime passage will remain safe, according to Lloyd's analysts. "Although the cessation of hostilities will free up sailors and boost the markets for tankers and bulk carriers, the industry sees this development as a fragile respite rather than a return to normalcy," the analysts noted in an update to their clients on Tuesday. However, some VLCC owners are seeking to gain the "first-mover advantage" by directing tankers toward the Persian Gulf, while others are planning to delay, according to Lloyd’s. Dozens of VLCCs have departed from the South China Sea and crossed the Indian Ocean heading for the ports of the United Arab Emirates, where at least 30 ships were already anchored, according to shipping analytics firm Windward.
Huge volume of trapped ships
For now, traffic through the Strait is likely to remain minimal, as both blockades remain in effect until the agreement is officially signed on Friday. The US Navy reminded the industry that "nothing has changed and will not change until the agreement is signed," said Tim Wilkins, managing director of Intertanko (the association of independent tanker owners). The scale of the delays is massive. Kpler estimates that 118 laden tankers could exit the region within 15 days of the agreement being signed, but this massive departure of ships will likely be a one-off event and not a sustainable recovery in traffic. "Most shipowners seem to be waiting carefully for more details before planning new transits through the Strait of Hormuz," said Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO. "They will seek assurances that transits are not only permitted but also safe, before sending their ships through the Strait."
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