It is clear from the latest developments in the Ukrainian issue that something very big is being prepared...
On the one hand, the statements of the French president, Emmanuel Macron that the US abandoned... neutrality and that they aligned with Europe in the provision of military aid to Ukraine and in the imposition of sanctions on Russia...
On the other hand, it is the public demand of the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky for new deliveries of Western weapon systems and his simultaneous threats for operations that could strike from Crimea up to Belarus...
Analysts estimate that these developments signal the beginning of a new and special phase of the war...
Indeed, from the Black Sea and the estuaries of the Dnieper to Zaporizhia and the border with Belarus, a complex operational setting is being formed, in which Kyiv is alleged to seek to exploit its temporary advantage in unmanned systems before it dissipates.
At the same time, the Ukrainian leadership intensifies the pressure toward the West for even more advanced weapon means, estimating that only through a generalized escalation can it overturn the balances on the field and force Moscow into political and military retreats...
A goal, however, which as it appears from the developments on the battlefield, is unlikely to be achieved.
The Russians are now a "breath" away from the "fortress" cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, which if they capture, then they will have achieved the basic goal they had set with the beginning of their special military operation: the conquest of the Donbass...
The Zelensky threats
The Ukrainian president asks persistently - for once more - from his partners for certain "deliveries" of weapon systems for conducting strategic operations inside Russia.
He also states directly that these operations will also concern Crimea.
"Our operation, including the one in Crimea, is designed with absolute precision.
And the way in which it evolves fully proves that, if Ukraine acquires what we discussed with our partners in the framework of the G7 - and this depends on the decisions of the partners -, then we will quickly create the conditions under which Russia will be forced to choose peace" the Ukrainian president claimed.
What does he mean?
What exactly is hidden behind this statement?
There are estimations that Zelensky may be asking for the acquisition of nuclear weapons, considering that the threat of their use against Russian cities would force Moscow to interrupt the military operations along the front line.
It is also possible that the demands of Kyiv are not so radical and concern new deliveries of missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles (drones), marine unmanned vessels or space services.
For now, it can be said that the Ukrainian leadership feels confident enough to display a willingness to increase its demands toward Russia.
The representative of Ukraine to the UN stated that even the willingness of Kyiv to freeze the conflict along the existing front line constitutes already a major concession on the part of Ukraine.
Landing
The developments in the northwestern part of the Black Sea usually remain on the margins of attention both in the West and in Russia.
However, for three years this specific maritime area has been the theater of a particularly fierce war between small naval forces, which was conducted with methods reminiscent of pirate operations: surprise raids, laying of mines and mutual sabotage operations.
The main object of this confrontation was the claim of control of the maritime area by the Ukrainian special forces of the GUR.
The clashes were conducted for the control of the drilling platforms that had remained on the continental shelf.
The side that maintains their control also controls the maritime approach routes toward Crimea and, in the opposite direction, toward the Ukrainian ports of the Black Sea.
Significant superiority
As Russian media admit, the Ukrainians have acquired significant superiority in the use of drones of operational range, with which they carry out attacks against the road arteries leading to Crimea.
Previously, sources close to the Ukrainians claimed that the Russian operational-tactical aviation had abandoned the airfields of the peninsula, redeploying to the Krasnodar Region, as well as to the regions of Rostov and Volgograd.
The Black Sea Fleet has been restricted to a strictly defensive stance at its naval base in Novorossiysk.
Thus, the Ukrainians possess today the most favorable conditions for conducting a landing operation than any other time during the conflict.
Furthermore, this advantage is not going to be maintained indefinitely.
The means of countering unmanned aerial vehicles are already known and are being implemented gradually, while in the Black Sea an ever-increasing number of Russian unmanned surface vessels (unmanned surface vessels) is recorded.
Consequently, as highlighted, for the Ukrainians it is logical to attempt to exploit this "window of opportunity" before it begins to close.
The target
The channel "Архангел спецναза" on Telegram reports that it observes corresponding activity of the Ukrainian forces in the area of Ochakov.
"Based on the operational situation, we can assume that the opponent is preparing the conditions for a relatively easy landing action on the coast.
Why exactly in the area of Kinburn?
Due to its geographical features.
In addition, from Ochakov it is easy to support its units with unmanned aerial vehicles, which will provide coverage to the forces that will be advancing in the area.
And if this is combined with a raid and attacks by unmanned surface vessels (unmanned surface vessels), then even more so" the Russian channel reports.
This strip of land is located just 17 kilometers from the positions from which the Armed Forces of Ukraine can launch unmanned aerial vehicles.
Defense is difficult
In today's conditions, this distance is easily covered by drones controlled via fiber optic, a fact which means that it will not be possible to protect the Russian positions with electronic warfare (EW) means.
The terrain on the strip of land is completely flat, like a table, without significant vegetation or multi-story buildings, while neither the creation of deep fortifications in the sand is feasible, due to the high level of underground waters.
In general, the defense of this small piece of land is even more difficult than the defense of Snake Island.
As a result, the plan of the Ukrainians appears extremely simple:
1) to evict the Russian units with continuous attacks of unmanned aerial vehicles.
2) to interrupt the supply lines and transport (logistics).
3) to land several groups of special forces.
It is obvious that these groups will probably be destroyed by Russian strikes.
However, such kinds of losses have never constituted a factor that deters the command of the Ukrainians from the implementation of its plans.
Alternative scenarios
An advance through the estuary system of the Dnieper appears to constitute the most obvious and probable scenario of the evolution of events.
However, the Ukrainians display their intentions excessively openly.
The question is whether this is a diversion operation aimed at distracting attention from some other front.
And if yes, from which one?
In the recent period Zelensky has resorted repeatedly to aggressive rhetoric against Belarus, accusing it of the installation of signal repeaters used by the Russian Geran unmanned aerial vehicles.
Later, however, he himself stated that the specific repeaters had been deactivated.
The evacuation of Chernihiv and the experience of Sumy
In parallel with this moderation of the Ukrainian rhetoric, it became known that a mandatory evacuation of residents from twelve settlements in the Region of Chernihiv was announced.
All the settlements being evacuated are located on the border with Russia and Belarus.
"This shows, above all, that the political and military leadership of Ukraine foresees that the Russian army will soon place under its control these settlements" emphasizes the Russian retired colonel and military analyst of the newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda, Viktor Baranets.
However, with the same probability these actions could constitute preparation for the concentration of a powerful strike force with the purpose of an attack either against the Region of Bryansk in Russia or against the Region of Gomel in Belarus.
As an example it is mentioned that from March to August 2024 the Ukrainian authorities carried out four waves of evacuation of residents in the Region of Sumy, after which the Armed Forces of Ukraine penetrated into the Region of Kursk.
It is noteworthy that the fourth wave of evacuation began on August 6, while in the first morning hours of the same day the Ukrainian forces launched their attack.
According to the article, when there is appropriate preparation, evacuation operations can function as an effective cover for the concentration and deployment of a strike force.
One more probable front: Zaporizhia and the... supreme prize
One more front on which a Ukrainian attack appears as logical and probable is the area of Zaporizhia.
There, significant forces have already gathered, which repel the advance of the Russian formations "Vostok" and "Dnepr" toward the city of Orikhiv.
This is an area where the superiority of the Ukrainians in the use of unmanned aerial vehicles is exploited to the maximum possible extent.
As a probable objective goal of a counterattack, the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar is mentioned – a "supreme prize", which in the eyes of Kyiv and its supporters could justify any cost for the operation.
Russian analysts underline that the Ukrainians fully perceive their advantage in the field of tactical use of unmanned aerial vehicles and intend to exploit it to the maximum possible extent, before the existing "window of opportunity" closes.
However, it must be understood that the scale of operations that Ukraine is capable of carrying out is significantly restricted by the losses it has already suffered.
These losses do not concern only human resources, but also the military equipment that had been delivered previously.
For this reason, Zelensky is forced to publicly pressure his Western supporters to accelerate the new deliveries of weaponry, without which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to exploit the capabilities which, for the time being, they still possess.
Mammoth-weapons to bring... Moscow to its knees
Zelensky promises to drag Moscow into a peace agreement to the benefit of Ukraine, provided that the "honorable Western partners" agree to one and single condition.
Based on the statement of the president of Ukraine, on June 24, the only thing that remains is the final decision of the West:
"If Ukraine receives exactly what we discussed with the partners in the framework of the G7, we will immediately ensure the conditions so that Russia will be forced to choose peace.
We hope for a positive answer: they know very well what thing we are talking about".
About what kind of "wonder-weapons" is Zelensky talking about though?
Willing to help, but the missiles are running out.
Let us examine the options on which Ukraine can, theoretically at least, count.
The first is the replenishment of the depleted stocks of missiles for the Patriot air defense systems.
In recent months, the complaints of Zelensky about the lack of anti-aircraft missiles were heard louder than ever.
The scenario "you ensure us uninterrupted air defense, we strike ever deeper into Russia and the Kremlin is forced to negotiate" moves in the known logic of the Kyiv regime.
The Patriots are not enough
The problem is that no one can supply these missiles for the American Patriot systems in physical form.
In the US they estimate that the specific ammunition is located at just 25% of the required minimum for their national security, because of the previous deliveries to Ukraine and the hostilities in the Middle East.
Scenarios for a dirty bomb
Talk may also be made about political permission and technical support so that Ukraine can acquire a "dirty" atomic bomb.
After the beginning of the SMO, complaints are regularly heard from Kyiv in the style: "Ah, if we had even a few nuclear weapons, we would show the Russians...".
However, for the European sponsors of the anti-Russian project, this scenario is excessively risky:
1) first, the provision of weapons of mass destruction to Kyiv constitutes a direct cause of global nuclear war and,
2) second, there is no guarantee that Zelensky will use the nuclear weapons "correctly".
European peacekeeping corps
Another option: officially ratified commitments for the entry of Ukraine into the EU and NATO and the deployment of a European "peacekeeping" corps.
A powerful version from the perspective of propaganda — at least the formal implementation of the slogan "Ukraine is Europe" should, even for a little while, significantly raise the morale of the Ukrainian society.
However, for the purpose of forcing the Kremlin to sit at the negotiating table, such a move is categorically unsuitable.
The acquisition of official status in NATO and the appearance of NATO troops on its territory is unacceptable for Russia.
A probable double strike and the most realistic scenarios:
Scenario A.
The acquisition of large quantities of heavy long-range missiles for strikes on strategic targets on the territory of Russia (Crimean Bridge, nuclear power plants, centers of major cities, government buildings).
The massive attacks with drones in the Russian rear cause serious damage, but months or even years are needed for the accumulated result to appear.
The powerful missile strikes should give a faster result.
The United States do not give long-range missiles for the same reasons as in the case of the Patriot systems: the Americans have exhausted their arsenals.
But for Kyiv it makes sense to blackmail the Europeans, as the main beneficiaries of the war against Russia.
In the spring of 2026, Germany and the United Kingdom announced that they stop supplying Ukraine with the Taurus and Storm Shadow missiles.
They say, we will "help in increasing the capabilities of the Ukrainian ammunition" (the Neptune and Flamingo missiles).
However, these are matters of a long horizon, which the Kyiv regime may not possess.
Therefore, Zelensky tries to convince the EU that one last strike is enough and Moscow will retreat to the terms of Kyiv and the West.
Scenario B.
The next option is the resignation of the US from the role of the mediator in the Ukrainian conflict and the imposition of full economic isolation of Russia from the collective West, a fact which would make impossible the continuation of the special military operation (SMO).
This version is reinforced both by the complaints of Kyiv that the economic sanctions against Russia are "half" and "not real", as well as by the fact that it constitutes an attractive formula for the Western partners — there is no risk of nuclear war, nor do they need to send their troops to the front.
The most probable version of this scenario is described by the doctor of political sciences, first Minister of State Security of the DPR Andrey Pinchuk: "Most likely we are talking about the economic coercion of Russia into a peace agreement.
For the significant strengthening of the economic isolation of our country, which should be accompanied by a political ultimatum, this time from the United States".
A separate question is whether the collective West has real capabilities to force the remaining countries, including India and the United States, to refuse cooperation with Russia.
However, it is impossible not to take into account the illusion of the globalist elites about their exclusivity and omnipotence.
Migrants... agents
Russian media report that on the internet a "massive satisfaction of migrants for the drone raids" is recorded but also the indication of new targets, mentioning specific locations, which they also photograph or videotape.
As reported, in Ukrainian forums it is already written openly that as guides of the drones act migrants from Central Asia.
"They do not perceive Russia as their own country – this goes without saying.
Many however consider it an enemy and are ready to cooperate with Ukraine.
There are also other cases where migrants from Central Asia acted as guides of targets and, in one way or another, as agents of the SBU and the GUR.
Let us remember the murder of General Kirillov and toward where the terrorists of the attack at Crocus in Moscow tried to escape" claims the political scientist and associate professor of the Financial University Vadim Trukhachyov.
As he said, "Azerbaijan openly supports, at a state level, Ukraine, and this constitutes a completely special case".
They are not allies of Russia
"We cannot say the same so overtly about the countries of Central Asia, but they are not allies of Russia.
In addition, let us not forget that the migrants who are dispatched to Russia are prepared by the same British NGOs that are active also in Ukraine.
The 'English ears' stick out again – whether it is about Central Asia or Ukraine, it is the same circles.
And if we talk about the South Caucasus, the British companies play the main role in oil extraction in Azerbaijan" the Russian analyst stated, who recalled that in Ukraine itself the videotaping of impact points incurs a prison sentence of up to twelve years.
"However we treat Ukraine, there is a logic in this.
We must treat the migrants as the second front of the Special Military Operation.
Entire regiments and divisions of Ukraine and Britain are located in the rear of Russia " Trukhachyov emphasized.
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