While Donald Trump attempts to shape the narrative of an «imminent deal» between the United States and Iran, information coming from regional diplomatic sources outlines a different reality.
The focus of developments does not appear to be a direct Washington - Tehran deal, but a technical and political agreement between Iran and Oman on how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran seeking to maintain sovereign control of the world's most important energy maritime artery.
According to Al Jazeera, the coming hours are considered particularly critical, as consultations continue on the implementation mechanism of the agreement, with no direct negotiations between Iran and the US currently foreseen.
Trump: «The agreement is close», Tehran speaks only of an implementation mechanism
Trump, through his posts on Truth Social as well as public statements, claims that an agreement is very close and that contacts cover both the nuclear program of Iran and the opening of Hormuz.
However, from the Iranian side the message is different.
Tehran acknowledges that there are talks, but clarifies that these are limited strictly to the manner of implementing a mechanism to reopen the Strait, and not a comprehensive political negotiation with the United States.
In other words, Iran seeks to present itself as the exclusive interlocutor of Oman regarding Hormuz, without recognizing that the US is part of the agreement.
«Peace and war are just a few letters apart»
The fragility of the situation is also reflected in a statement by a senior Israeli official to Channel 12.
As he stated, Trump seeks an agreement with Iran «at all costs», commenting characteristically that:
«For Trump, the distance between peace and war is only a few letters on a keyboard».
This remark reflects the volatility of developments, as within a few hours American rhetoric can shift from the threat of military action to the announcement of a diplomatic agreement.
The draft 60-day agreement
Axios, citing an American official and regional sources, claims that the US, Iran, and Oman are very close to reaching a temporary agreement.
According to the same information, Tehran has already completed its internal approval process.
The draft provides: 1) a temporary 60-day agreement between Iran and Oman for the operation of the Strait of Hormuz, 2) zero charges and transit fees for commercial ships during the period the agreement is in force, with the possibility of extension, 3) commencement, within 30 days, of demining operations in the maritime dividing zone.
According to the same report, an important role in the contacts was played by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, the Foreign Minister of Iran, and the Foreign Minister of Oman, while Qatar, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia participated as mediators.
The major gain for Tehran
Behind the technical details lies the essence of the negotiation.
According to Israeli E24, the main progress of the talks concerns the acceptance of a framework under which commercial ships will enter Hormuz through the Iranian section of the maritime route.
This development is considered a major diplomatic success for Tehran, as it essentially maintains sovereign operational control of the passage.
Similar is the assessment of The Guardian, according to which the reopening of Hormuz is progressing on the initiative of Iran, while Oman operates as a mediator under pressure from the United States, Europe, and Saudi Arabia.
Document only for Hormuz
At the same time, Al-Mayadeen, citing information from Islamabad, reported that mediators from Pakistan and Qatar are working on a new agreement text, which concerns exclusively the Strait of Hormuz.
This choice reinforces the assessment that the opening of the shipping route is temporarily disconnected from the nuclear program of Iran, so that a limited de-escalation agreement can be achieved more quickly.
CENTCOM causes new tension
At the same time, CENTCOM announced that the southern maritime route through Hormuz is open to all commercial ships.
According to the announcement, more than 1,000 commercial ships have passed with the assistance of US forces over the last three months.
This position caused a new reaction from Tehran.
Iran insists that the only legal route is the one designated by the Islamic Republic itself, warning that any attempt to use alternative maritime corridors carries serious risks for commercial ships.
Mohsen Rezaei: No transit outside Iranian rules
The same line was followed by the military advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mohsen Rezaei.
In his statements, he argued that Tehran will not allow the passage of ships from any route not approved by Iranian authorities, while warning that US warships attempting to move outside designated corridors will become targets.
Qatar confirms exchange of drafts
Indications of progress were also given by Qatar.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that draft agreements are already being exchanged between the involved parties.
He clarified, however, that this is a short-term de-escalation effort, while there is as yet no planning for direct talks between Washington and Tehran.
The «red lines»
Despite the optimism of certain sources, differences remain significant.
According to Al Jazeera, Iran and Oman still disagree on critical points of the implementation mechanism.
The main one concerns the form of navigation.
Tehran rejects proposals that provide for the creation of two independent maritime corridors, a northern and a southern, as it considers that such a measure restricts its sovereignty over the Strait.
In addition, disagreements still exist regarding: 1) the method of demining the area, 2) whether or not fees for shipping services will be imposed, 3) the degree of control Iran will maintain over the passage of ships.
At the same time, the Iranian side makes clear that the operating status of Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions, a fact indicating that Tehran seeks to turn the current crisis into a permanent geopolitical advantage.
The essence of the negotiation
Behind the technical consultations on maritime routes, minefields, and transit fees, something much larger is at stake: who will have real control over the planet's most important energy artery.
If the emerging framework is confirmed, Iran appears to retain operational control of Hormuz, while Oman assumes the role of guarantor of the agreement's implementation.
The United States, although according to certain information participating behind the scenes in contacts, does not appear to be the direct interlocutor of Tehran for the operating mechanism of the Strait, an element that explains why Iran insists on presenting the process as an agreement with Oman rather than the result of direct negotiation with Washington.
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