Marine Le Pen is executing a sweeping run ahead of the 2027 presidential elections in France, appearing to broaden her lead and launch the race for the Élysée from a position of unprecedented strength. The latest polls clearly reflect the shift in the French political landscape. With voting intention reaching up to 36% in the first round, the leader of Rassemblement National stands far ahead of her potential opponents, while in several scenarios she also appears poised to prevail in the second round.
At the same time, the image of Emmanuel Macron and his political legacy grows increasingly heavy. The popularity of the French president is collapsing to an all-time low of 16%, while eight out of ten French citizens now hold a negative view of his presidency. Against a backdrop characterized by financial pressure, fiscal deadlocks, and a deeply weakened political center, Le Pen is attempting to convert popular discontent into an electoral upset.
Shock lead for Le Pen
According to a poll published today, Monday (9/14/2026), Marine Le Pen consistently leads voting intentions for the first round, gathering between 33% and 36%, depending on the scenario. Her opponents, whether originating from the Left or the center-right camp, appear to essentially be fighting for second place. Jean-Luc Mélenchon follows in second place in several of the examined scenarios, while Macron's former prime minister, Édouard Philippe, is the only center-right candidate able to compete with him. Yet even in that case, the distance from Le Pen remains large. Even more striking is that Le Pen appears to defeat Mélenchon in the second round, according to the poll's scenarios. In other words, political momentum in France appears to be shifting decisively toward Le Pen's side.
The collapse of Macron
On the opposite end stands Emmanuel Macron, who is completing his second and final term having left behind a political center that looks increasingly like an empty shell. Barely 16% of French citizens currently declare themselves satisfied with the president, according to a new poll by Ipsos-Bva-Cesi for La Tribune Dimanche. This represents the lowest level of Macron's popularity since his arrival at the Élysée and is even lower than that recorded at the peak of the "Yellow Vests" movement.
Fully 81% hold a negative opinion of the president, while even voters from his own political sphere seem to be distancing themselves. In the Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons block, Macron's positive rating has fallen by 19 points. This image concerns not only the personal popularity of the French president, but is connected to a broader sense of political dysfunction—with difficulties in passing the budget, loss of purchasing power, low growth, increased borrowing costs, and a prolonged parliamentary deadlock. The result is a political vacuum that Le Pen is now attempting to fill.
"Priority for the French"
The leader of Rassemblement National is attempting to transform this discontent into a concrete political proposal. Kickstarting her campaign, Le Pen once again placed the principle of "national preference" at the center, arguing that French citizens must have priority in access to social housing, social benefits, and public sector jobs. She characterized this proposal as an "act of elementary justice," attempting to shift the debate from immigration to the issue of social protection and the relationship between the state and its citizens. This is certainly a proposal that provokes strong reactions, as its critics argue that it would contradict the French Constitution and EU law, requiring significant institutional changes.
At the same time, Le Pen is attempting to present a more comprehensive economic agenda, beyond her traditional immigration narrative. At the center lie the reduction of tax and regulatory burdens, addressing the housing crisis, and restoring public services. Particularly characteristic is her proposal to reduce VAT on gasoline from 20% to 5%, in an effort to limit the burden on households from high energy prices. The proposal carries an obvious fiscal cost, at a time when France is trying to curb its deficit, which stands at 5.1% of GDP. Le Pen, however, reverses the argument, contending that the country must first curb what she terms the "tax plunder" of the French by an overly expensive state.
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