Germany is on the verge of a new political crisis as Friedrich Merz sees his chancellorship tested just 16 months after taking power. The sharp decline in his popularity, the historically low performance of the CDU/CSU in opinion polls, and the risk of a heavy defeat in the critical elections on Sunday, September 20, in Mecklenburg - Western Pomerania and Berlin have sparked internal party discussions even about a change of chancellor. With Alternative for Germany (AfD) gaining strength, the governing majority remaining fragile, and senior figures among the Christian Democrats weighing their next steps, Berlin enters an extremely fragile and decisive weekend. From a potential resignation or vote of confidence to the scenario of Merz enduring the pressure and remaining in power, the coming hours could prove critical for the political stability of Europe's largest economy.
Overthrow
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces the prospect of being removed from power as early as this weekend, just 16 months after taking office promising an ambitious reform agenda and committing to restoring German leadership in Europe. Ahead of two critical elections in Mecklenburg - Western Pomerania and Berlin this Sunday, September 20, where Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) risks suffering painful defeats, high-ranking party officials are privately discussing whether Germany needs a... Kanzlertausch — that is, a change of chancellor — in order to stem the rapid decline in support for the government.
Popularity in the cellar
Merz's popularity nationwide plummeted this week to just 14%, while a new poll shows the conservative CDU/CSU alliance dropping to an unprecedented low of just 18%. The same survey places Alternative for Germany (AfD) in first place with 29%. The AfD also finished first in recent elections in Saxony-Anhalt, coming close to an absolute majority, while Merz's CDU lost more than half of its electoral strength.
Battle for political survival
European and international allies are watching in disbelief as Germany — a country that was once a bastion of stability during the 16 years of Angela Merkel's leadership — potentially faces its second rapid change of leadership. Merz's predecessor, Olaf Scholz, saw his governing coalition collapse in November 2024. Merz's cancellation of his trip to the UN General Assembly, whose proceedings are scheduled for next week, highlighted with particular clarity the magnitude of the domestic political crisis he faces. "His presence is required in Berlin," stated a senior German official, as the Chancellor fights for his political survival.
The 5 scenarios
Amid these rapid political developments, Politico outlines the 5 scenarios likely to unfold in the aftermath of the September 20 elections.
Scenario 1: Merz resigns after losing party support
The Chancellor has convened a critical meeting of his party leadership for Sunday at 5:00 PM, coinciding with the release of election exit polls at 6:00 PM. At this meeting, according to reports, Merz intends to ask his party allies whether they still support him and his reform agenda. If not, he plans to invite them to propose the name of a potential successor. By choosing to trigger this showdown, Merz will attempt to exploit a weakness among his critics: there is no clear consensus on who should succeed him. North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Hendrik Wüst (CDU) is frequently cited as a potential candidate, but he faces elections in his populous state in April, making the timing unfavorable for him. An alternative option could be Markus Söder of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of the CDU, though he also has several critics. Other, less likely candidates include Hesse Premier Boris Rhein (CDU) and Minister of the Interior Alexander Dobrindt (CSU).
Heading toward electoral disaster
However, if Sunday's elections turn into a complete disaster for Merz's conservatives — the party might not even cross the 5% threshold to enter the state parliament of Mecklenburg - Western Pomerania, which would be a first in state elections — discontent within the CDU/CSU could overflow and spark widespread calls for Merz's resignation. This showdown does not necessarily have to take place on Sunday; it could unfold over the coming days or weeks. If Merz accepted such a development, he could inform German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier of his intention to resign. Steinmeier would likely ask him to remain temporarily in office as acting chancellor until a new one is elected by parliament. However, such a process is far from simple.
Complicated procedure
Any successor to Merz would require the votes of the Social Democrats (SPD), the CDU/CSU's coalition partner, who would likely demand concessions, triggering a time-consuming renegotiation of the coalition agreement. This also means that Merz could remain in power for months and continue representing Germany internationally, for instance in talks over the EU budget. The difficulties are compounded by the fact that the coalition's majority in the Bundestag is razor-thin. In a secret ballot, there is always the risk of party defectors, as happened to Merz himself during the first round of his election last year.
Scenario 2: Motion of no confidence leads to Merz's removal
Internal party pressure cannot actually force Merz to resign. For historical reasons, the German Constitution grants elected chancellors a particularly secure position. Therefore, the only way to forcibly remove him would be through a constructive vote of no confidence. However, the German Constitution stipulates that such a motion must be "constructive," meaning an opposing candidate must simultaneously secure a majority to replace Merz. This makes such a scenario difficult. Beyond the negative public image an overt attempt to overthrow the Chancellor inside parliament would create for the CDU/CSU, it is unclear whether any candidate could immediately assemble the required votes, given the coalition's thin majority and the negotiations that would likely first be required with the SPD.
Scenario 3: Merz calls for a vote of confidence
Merz could also call for a vote of confidence himself, seeking to prove that he still holds sufficient support within the governing coalition — or, alternatively, to pave the way for snap elections. This scenario has been used in the past, most recently by Olaf Scholz in December 2024. If Merz lost the vote, Frank-Walter Steinmeier could decide to dissolve the Bundestag within 21 days — but only if recommended by Merz. However, given the strong position of the AfD in current polls, neither the CDU nor the SPD has any interest in heading to early elections at this stage. It would also be possible to elect a new chancellor within those 21 days, provided a parliamentary majority quickly formed behind a successor.
Scenario 4: Support from AfD against Merz
Theoretically, a successor to Merz could secure the required parliamentary majority through indirect support from the AfD, forming a minority government, or even through a governing coalition with the AfD. The CDU/CSU and AfD would hold a comfortable majority in parliament, but such a development would mean abandoning the German "firewall" against the far right. However, this is an idea deemed unacceptable by many members of the party leadership. Merz himself has also ruled out remaining in power with the support of the far right.
Scenario 5: Merz stays in power
Unlike what happened after the elections in Saxony-Anhalt, when the Chancellor appeared disheartened and delivered an unconvincing speech in the Bundestag, he now appears determined to fight to maintain his leadership. Merz's position was bolstered on Wednesday by a letter from eight center-right state premiers — including Hendrik Wüst and Boris Rhein, though not Markus Söder — who wrote that "Germany needs credibility and action" rather than "debates over personalities." The letter also points to upcoming elections next year in France, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Greece, noting that Europe currently needs a "stable and strong Germany." The letter is far from an unqualified endorsement of Merz. In fact, it does not even mention his name and may simply represent an attempt to curb internal debates ahead of Sunday's crucial elections. However, it may simultaneously signal that, at least for now, there is insufficient appetite among senior party leaders to remove Merz. Instead, the party may seek to unite and regain popularity by pressing the SPD toward more drastic social reforms.
Fear of total collapse
The next regional elections in Germany are scheduled for September 20. According to Bloomberg, polling results indicate that the CDU's prospects in this contest may simply heighten panic and dissatisfaction regarding Merz's leadership within the coalition ranks. In the state of Mecklenburg - Western Pomerania, the CDU is registering just 7%.
At the same time, the AfD is backed by 37% of respondents, while the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) stands at 34%. Conservative lawmakers now fear that the party might not gather enough votes to even enter the state parliament. The head of the CDU parliamentary group, Thorsten Frei, stated in an interview with RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland that there is a risk the party could be "completely crushed."
Better outlook in Berlin
In Berlin, the situation for the CDU is slightly better — there, the party commands 20% support, tied with the left-wing Die Linke. The AfD follows closely behind at 18% in voting intentions, according to an INSA poll conducted for Bild. The Greens follow at 16% and the Social Democrats at 12%.
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