"Do not write off Bibi" - Netanyahu's political funeral premature, preparing Iran war card for power

The Israeli ballot box resulted in a political stalemate, as neither the bloc of Benjamin Netanyahu nor that of his primary rival, Gadi Eisenkot, managed to secure the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority. Amid this landscape of political crisis—where Israel could potentially be led toward yet another election, given that the available options are either coalition negotiations between the two blocs of Netanyahu and Eisenkot or for one of the blocs to partner with Arab parties—Netanyahu is fighting perhaps the most critical battle of his long political career. The election result failed to oust him from power. With the opposition seeking the necessary ideological compromises to form a government, Netanyahu appears determined to exhaust every margin for political survival. And as he has proven repeatedly in the past, he can be considered anything but politically finished.

The official results

Israel's Central Elections Committee (CEC) announced on Wednesday afternoon that, with 89.8% of the ballots counted, the coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to secure 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the coalition under Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot is projected to capture 48 seats. Both factions fall significantly short of the 61-seat threshold required to secure a parliamentary majority. At the same time, the two Arab parties are projected to secure a historic combined total of 19 seats, potentially acquiring a kingmaker role in post-election developments. This development follows record voter participation among Arab voters in Tuesday's election, who turned out in large numbers hoping to remove Netanyahu and his far-right allies from power. The previous representation record for Arab parties stood at 15 seats.

Exit polls missed the mark

The picture that took shape by Wednesday evening differed noticeably from the projections presented by most opinion polls in the weeks and months preceding the election. Nearly all of them showed Eisenkot's coalition leading Netanyahu's, albeit with varying margins. However, even those surveys did not record a clear prospect for either faction to assemble a governing majority. This trajectory also represented a reversal of the picture painted by major television network exit polls on Tuesday evening, immediately after polls closed at 22:00. Initial estimates gave Eisenkot's coalition a two-to-three-seat lead over Netanyahu's. Yet, as vote counting continued through the night and into Wednesday afternoon, it became evident that exit polls had missed their forecasts, with both Netanyahu's party and broader political coalition moving ahead of Eisenkot's corresponding forces. In its latest tally, the Central Elections Committee announced that 89.8% of all votes had been counted, representing results from nearly all standard polling stations. Although the results were not yet final, dramatic reversals in the final knesset seat distribution were not anticipated.

Final results on November 4

The Central Elections Committee stated that counting the remaining ballots from regular polling stations required additional verification checks, explaining the expected delay. Furthermore, the Committee clarified that approximately 430,000 to 480,000 votes cast via the "double envelope" system remained to be counted. Their tally began in the early hours of Thursday, October 30, and is expected to conclude by Thursday evening. With each Knesset seat estimated to correspond to roughly 40,000 votes, these ballots could influence the final political alignment. The results of this count were expected to be incorporated into the total tally over the coming two days. The final, official election results are scheduled for announcement on November 4.

Not politically finished

In a political career spanning more than three decades, Benjamin Netanyahu has been pronounced politically dead countless times, only to prove that his political obituaries were written prematurely. As vote counting nears completion, Netanyahu's Likud party remains the largest single political force in the 120-seat parliament, known as the Knesset, with an estimated strength of 26 seats. However, his right-wing coalition has lost its majority and is expected to secure just 53 seats, short of the 61 required to form a government. Netanyahu has not won. But neither has he lost—at least not yet. Now he must prevent his rivals from forming their own administration and, if successful, he may survive politically once more through complex parliamentary coalition building.

The Arab parties

On paper, the opposition holds approximately 67 seats, but this numerical majority is undermined by ideological, national, and personal rivalries. Netanyahu's main contender, Gadi Eisenkot, secured 21 seats, but Jewish opposition parties collectively command just 48—a number far removed from the required majority. To reach 61 seats, they would need the support of two Arab parties, Ra'am and the Joint List, which are projected to secure a record total of 19 seats. According to analysts, record turnout among Arab citizens of Israel in the election was partly a reaction to the four-year tenure of a far-right National Security Minister, during which violent crime within the Arab community surged, impacting voter turnout dynamics.

The electoral arithmetic

This is where the electoral arithmetic grows complex. Ra'am is an Islamist party that draws much of its support from Israel's Bedouin community. Its leader, Mansour Abbas, became the first Arab politician to join an Israeli governing coalition following the 2021 election. The Joint List, projected to emerge as the largest Arab party, is an alliance of smaller political formations: the communist Hadash, the secular Ta'al, and the nationalist Balad faction. On Wednesday, Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, called on his political partners to include Arab parties in the coalition, rejecting what he characterized as Netanyahu's "racist separation between Jewish and Arab votes." However, two of Eisenkot's right-wing allies, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman, have voiced opposition to any government dependent on Arab parties. The Joint List announced on Wednesday that it is ready for political cooperation and willing to do "everything in its power to end Netanyahu's rule," highlighting critical political coalition negotiations.

What will Netanyahu do?

A source close to Netanyahu stated that his primary post-election goal is to delegitimize and, by extension, prevent political cooperation between Jewish and Arab parties that could remove him from office. "He is very concerned about the potential formation of a minority government," the source noted. Netanyahu reportedly plans to exert pressure on individual opposition lawmakers to refrain from cooperating with Arab parties. After running his entire campaign against them, Likud issued a statement on Wednesday accusing Arab parties of "stealing the election" through bribery, threats, violence, and forgery—echoing election fraud claims made by his closest ally, US President Donald Trump, to influence the israeli political landscape.

Allegations of fraud and crisis scenarios

The Central Elections Committee announced on Wednesday that it is examining the complaint. However, the Committee had already dismissed thousands of complaints from various parties on election day. Netanyahu plans to "neutralize this possibility by any means," the source told CNN, "including launching an attack against Iran or enlisting President Trump to intervene in Israeli politics on his behalf." The opposition fears that Netanyahu could exploit a security crisis to delay or impede the formation of a new government, sparking concerns over national security protocols.

Pressing for war with Iran

Prior to the election, Netanyahu had pressed Trump to launch a joint military strike against Iran. However, Washington postponed the move, partly because the Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Eyal Zamir, warned that such an operation could disrupt the electoral process. An Israeli security source told CNN that operational plans are ready and await Trump's approval, potentially after the US midterm elections. "There is no way of knowing what Netanyahu will do," an opposition source told CNN. "We know he may attempt to provoke a new escalation." Another source noted that Netanyahu "will do whatever he can to avoid leaving the Prime Minister's Office, even if it entails internal and external chaos," exacerbating Middle East regional tension.

Lacking a mandate

Eisenkot, former Chief of General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), called on Israel's security leadership on Tuesday evening to remember that "Netanyahu is a caretaker prime minister, lacking a mandate and lacking the confidence of society." Addressing supporters shortly after the release of exit polls, Eisenkot declared that the people had "chosen change." In his first reaction to updated results following his Tuesday evening speech, Eisenkot stated he remains committed to the goal of "bringing change to Israel," shaping the governance transition debate.

What comes next

Following the announcement of final election results, formal political negotiations and background maneuvering begin in earnest. The next phase centers on President Isaac Herzog, whose post-election role is decisive. His mandate is to consult with all parties elected to parliament regarding their recommended candidate for prime minister and subsequently select the individual deemed to have the best prospect of securing a 61-seat majority. This is not necessarily the leader of the largest party, but rather the politician with the most realistic path to forming a governing coalition. Eisenkot is likely to gather more recommendations than Netanyahu, as Arab parties are expected to back him, shifting presidential mandate procedures.

The countdown

The countdown then commences. The candidate entrusted with the mandate has 28 days—with the possibility of a 14-day extension—to negotiate with other parties regarding cabinet portfolios, budgets, and policies to form a government. If that effort fails, the mandate passes to another candidate for an additional four weeks. Should that attempt fail as well, the Knesset enters a brief window to propose an alternative candidate. If that effort also fails, the country automatically heads to new elections. Netanyahu, as caretaker prime minister, holds an inherent advantage. If Eisenkot receives the mandate first and fails, Netanyahu simply needs to wait for the allocated time to expire. And if Israel is driven to fresh elections, Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister for months.

Eisenkot's options

Eisenkot has not fully exhausted his options. Even without forming a government, the opposition could leverage its numerical majority in the Knesset to replace the Speaker of the Knesset and other key figures. This could constrain Netanyahu's ability to govern and enable the opposition to advance legislative initiatives. However, Eisenkot, a retired lieutenant general, is not on his preferred battleground. Netanyahu's governing coalition remains fiercely loyal to its leader, with little reason to fear potential defections. The same cannot be said for Eisenkot. His broad coalition exhibits far less ideological cohesion, where even minor friction could fracture the bloc and trigger fresh elections. For now, attention centers on Herzog, whose role gains heightened importance due to the current impasse. As neither bloc holds a clear majority, he may attempt to press Netanyahu and Eisenkot toward forming a national unity government. "We must do everything possible to avoid another round of elections," Herzog stated on Wednesday, calling on party leaders to enter consultations with an open mind regarding national unity options.

www.bankingnews.gr