The heavy defeat of Republicans in the midterm elections of November 3 opens an internal battlefront within the Trump administration.
The war with Iran, the economic crisis, and the American relationship with Israel trigger deep fissures within the MAGA movement.
At a time when Marco Rubio emerges as a potential contender for the presidency in 2028, JD Vance attempts to express the grievances of the electoral base, while a former high-ranking official demands the removal of the entire national security team.
Electoral crushing turns into a strategic crisis
The political tempest that broke out across the United States following the midterm elections of November 3 threatens to upend balances inside the camp of Donald Trump and transform the war against Iran into a catalyst for broader political realignments.
Democrats secured control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, recording significant victories even in traditionally Republican states.
The electoral setback does not constitute merely conventional governmental erosion.
It is linked to soaring living costs, the energy crisis, and mounting opposition to the prolonged military confrontation with Iran.
The political paradox is striking: Trump, who returned to the White House pledging to put America above foreign military misadventures, finds himself confronted by an electoral revolt against a war that a major portion of his base never desired.
The outcome now opens two parallel battlegrounds: the search for an exit ramp from the war and the struggle for the succession of Trump in 2028.
Rubio and Vance: The succession battle begins amid crisis
According to a report in the British newspaper The Independent, Secretary of State Marco Rubio may depart the administration in order to prepare a future candidacy for the American presidency.
The report is based on anonymous political sources and has not been confirmed.
Conversely, Rubio himself and the Department of State have dismissed the relevant scenarios.
However, the discussion reveals the magnitude of the internal crisis.
For Rubio, remaining in the administration creates a serious political dilemma.
On one hand, his post bolsters his international profile and public visibility.
On the other, it links him directly to American foreign policy and, predominantly, to the profoundly unpopular war in Iran.
By contrast, Vice President JD Vance commands greater room for political maneuver.
Russian political analyst Nikolai Topornin, director of the Center for European Information, assesses speaking to Pravda.Ru that both politicians represent central figures in the debate surrounding 2028, but any forecast remains premature.
He notes that Rubio has characterized Vance as an outstanding candidate and has declared a readiness to support him should he run for the presidency.
This public posture does not preclude future rivalry.
It highlights, however, the effort to avert an untimely intraparty clash while Republicans scramble to manage their electoral collapse.
Vance points to the war as the cause of defeat
The most consequential development is not the rumors regarding Rubio's resignation, but the public intervention of JD Vance.
The vice president recognized forthrightly that the war with Iran represented a pivotal cause of the electoral defeat.
Concurrently, he pointed out that voters are demanding an end to hostilities, action on high prices, and a reexamination of the relationship between the United States and Israel.
This divergence carries exceptional political gravity.
Vance is attempting to position himself closer to the anti-war wing of MAGA, which considers that American foreign policy has drifted away from the original pledge to avoid new protracted conflicts.
Rubio, conversely, as head of American diplomacy, struggles to decouple his political future from decisions in which he participates institutionally.
Thus, the war in Iran no longer merely determines US policy in the Middle East.
It threatens to determine who will contest the leadership of Republicans after Trump as well.
Former official and MAGA stalwart demands government purge
Even more explosive is the intervention of Joe Kent, former director of the National Counterterrorism Center and prominent MAGA figure, who had resigned from the administration due to his opposition to the war.
In an article published in Responsible Statecraft, Kent calls upon Trump to immediately end the conflict and dismiss top officials from his administration.
In his crosshairs are Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
His argumentation is extraordinarily sharp.
According to Kent, the American national security apparatus contains powerful mechanisms seeking to sustain military entanglements, even when these run counter to the administration's political objectives.
He argues that Trump requires new personnel capable of enforcing a genuine change of strategy and preventing the perpetuation of the war through bureaucratic inertia or internal resistance.
The significance of this stance lies in its pedigree: it does not originate from Democratic opponents, but from an individual who served inside the security machinery of the Trump administration itself.
US military presence in the Persian Gulf challenged
Joe Kent goes further still, proposing the withdrawal of American forces from the Persian Gulf and the lifting of the naval blockade against Iran.
In his assessment, Iranian strikes have proven that numerous American bases across the region now constitute strategic vulnerabilities rather than reliable bastions of power.
This conclusion challenges a foundational premise of American strategy over recent decades: that an extensive forward military presence automatically ensures dominance and deterrence.
Iran has demonstrated that it possesses asymmetric response capabilities capable of inflicting serious losses and ratcheting up the cost of a protracted confrontation.
This does not mean it has secured a military victory.
It means, however, that American supremacy is insufficient on its own to dictate a political settlement.
Withdrawal, according to Kent, should not be viewed as humiliation, but as an indispensable strategic recalibration.
Joe Kent
Hormuz and Tehran's economic leverage
A central role in Kent's proposal is occupied by the lifting of the American naval blockade.
The former official maintains that preserving it prolongs the deadlock and hands Iran justifications for its actions in the Persian Gulf.
Conversely, eliminating it could create prerequisites for resuming negotiations and gradually restoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
He also proposes a phased easing of sanctions on Iranian oil and gas, providing Tehran with economic incentives to keep the vital maritime artery open.
This outlook aligns closely with the core Iranian stance that substantive diplomatic progress cannot occur while military threats and economic siege persist.
The remarkably significant element is that such a logic is now openly articulated by a former senior American official rather than solely by Tehran.
Israel at the center of domestic American dispute
The most sensitive dimension of Kent's intervention concerns Israel.
The former official argues that Washington must decisively curtail the ability of Israel to influence American strategy and undermine potential de-escalation initiatives.
He proposes, among other steps, the withdrawal of major American missile defense systems granted to Israel, as well as the dismissal of US Ambassador Mike Huckabee.
He also calls for repealing specific statutory provisions in defense and intelligence legislation that he considers excessively favorable to Israeli access to American strategic capabilities.
These proposals represent the personal political views of Kent rather than decisions of the US government.
They illuminate, however, a profound collision within the American Right regarding a foundational dilemma: to what extent should the strategic partnership with Israel dictate US decisions on war and peace?
The debate assumes particular ferocity because it is now tied directly to living costs, energy prices, and the discontent of American voters.
Iran confronting a politically weakened Washington
For Tehran, internal American turbulence creates fresh diplomatic realities.
The Trump administration now faces a more formidable opposition in Congress, escalating internal dissent, and political pressure to curb war expenditures.
Iran can exploit this window by insisting on mutual concessions, phased sanctions relief, and frameworks addressing the security concerns of both parties.
Nonetheless, the American electoral defeat does not automatically guarantee an end to the conflict.
Trump retains sweeping executive powers, while sectors of the political and military establishment advocate continued coercion until firm commitments regarding the Iranian nuclear file are extracted.
The lingering uncertainty remains hazardous, as renewed escalation could impose an even heavier burden on the American economy and spark broader regional destabilization.
Trump's central contradiction and 2028
The ultimate political stakes transcend the personal ambitions of Rubio and Vance.
They concern the very identity of the MAGA movement.
The promise of America First collides with the reality of an expensive military confrontation that produces domestic economic blowback across the United States.
Vance appears to recognize that the future leadership of Republicans will need to rebuild ties with anti-interventionist voters.
Rubio, on the other hand, faces the imperative of defending his tenure in office without mortgaging his personal prospects.
For Trump, the dilemma is even more acute.
If he presses forward with the war, he risks widening the political fault lines that already provoked a historic electoral defeat.
If he chooses diplomatic de-escalation, he must concede that military force failed to unilaterally impose American conditions upon Tehran.
The paramount challenge for the White House is now converting an extraordinarily costly confrontation into a sustainable political settlement.
And the supreme irony for the American establishment is that the war intended to neutralize the strategic clout of Iran now threatens to remake the leadership of the United States itself.
The question is not solely who will succeed Trump in 2028.
It is whether Washington will manage to walk away from a war for which it is already paying politically, economically, and strategically, before the bill mounts even higher.
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