The significant increase in free float for AKTOR, following the recent capital raise that exceeded 30% of the pre-existing share capital, combined with the transaction's structure (essentially a re-IPO), creates a unique momentum for the stock aiming for 20 euros from 9.5 euros where it has dropped, also due to the entry of new shares from the 650 million euro capital increase.
The stock of Aktor on July 28, 2026 was under significant pressure at -11% to 9.70 euros as a result of sales following the listing of new shares from the capital increase, yet these pressures will subside. The main scenario anticipates a return of the stock to 14 euros, consolidation of 14 euros, and subsequently 18 euros to 20 euros, which is the target for the stock over a 12-month horizon.
The presence of short-term and event-driven investors is naturally expected to lead to technical pressures during the first trading days, without these reflecting the fundamental metrics or long-term prospects of the company. In terms of fundamental metrics, AKTOR currently possesses, by a significant margin, one of the most attractive growth profiles among infrastructure companies both in Greece and in the broader European periphery. The high proportion of secured operational profitability (EBITDA), the unprecedented growth rates expected to be recorded by the group in coming years, the expansion of its operations in Greece and abroad, as well as its significantly enhanced capital base, are not reflected in the current stock valuation.
Cash reserves exceed 1.2 billion
Following the completion of the €650 million capital increase and the €300 million bond issuance, the group's cash reserves are expected to exceed €1.2 billion, offering exceptional financial flexibility to execute its business plan. At the same time, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio for 2025, adjusted for two transactions, forms at approximately 1.3x, a level that ranks among the lowest in the European infrastructure sector and is multiple times lower than that of most domestic competitors. From a valuation standpoint, the picture is even more impressive. Based on projections for 2027, AKTOR trades at an Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of less than 8x, whereas corresponding multiples stand at roughly 12x for listed Greek peer companies and 11x for European infrastructure companies. The stock, therefore, trades at a discount of approximately 33% against domestic peers and about 27% against European companies, despite demonstrating superior growth rates and a significantly stronger balance sheet.
The current picture of the stock appears to be influenced primarily by technical factors related to the transaction rather than the fundamental characteristics of the company. As these short-term pressures are gradually absorbed by the market, the valuation of AKTOR has substantial room for convergence toward levels of European peer companies. Based on the above, the current valuation of AKTOR does not appear to reflect the quality of its balance sheet, its profitability prospects, or its growth profile. On the contrary, it creates one of the most attractive investment opportunities in the European infrastructure sector.
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