The United States appears to be fully prepared to bomb Iran in a military operation that could have unpredictable or even catastrophic consequences both for the wider Middle East and the Persian Gulf, and for the entire planet.
History has shown that wars often begin before the voice of reason has time to be heard.
Nevertheless, there are serious, documented and relentless reasons why the American government must not intervene again in the Middle East, and especially in Iran.
What follows are seven reasons that are not based on emotionalism or ideological fantasies, but on historical data, geopolitical reality and simple common sense.
1) It has never gone well and there is no reason to believe it will now
The history of American intervention in the Middle East is a long chain of failures, disasters and unintended consequences.
In 1953, the CIA overthrew the democratically elected government of Iran so that the British could more easily control the country’s oil.
In its place, the Shah was imposed, an authoritarian leader hated by a large part of the Iranian people.
The result was the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the rise of the Ayatollahs, and the birth of a regime hostile to the United States.
If this is considered a success, then the word has lost all meaning.
From there on, the list grows: Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Lebanon.
Lies about weapons of mass destruction, staged stories about babies in incubators, civil wars, the destabilization of entire regions and thousands of dead, including American soldiers.
The American government has a systematic record of failure in the Middle East.
Believing that this time will be different is not optimism, it is denial of reality, explains American military analyst Josiah Lippincott.
2) Iran does not pose a military threat to the United States
This truth enrages the political and military elite of Washington, but it remains the truth.
Iran cannot attack the United States militarily.
It does not possess the capability, the power or the technology to do so.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is not about to land on the Potomac River.
Any attempts at Iranian espionage on American soil have proven clumsy and ineffective.
Even in the hypothetical scenario in which Iran acquires nuclear weapons, nothing substantive changes.
A nuclear strike against the United States would mean the immediate and total destruction of Iran.
There is no incentive, there is no logic, there is no benefit.
The nuclear balance functions as a deterrent.
We know this from Pakistan, North Korea, Russia and China.
Nuclear weapons are a tool of defense, not offensive use in a world of mutual destruction.
3) The Iran Israel conflict is not an American issue
Iran and Israel hate each other. This is a fact.
But it is not the responsibility of American taxpayers to pay or bleed for it.
Israel is a sovereign, powerful and militarily advanced state.
It is not a minor entity in need of a guardian. It can, and must, confront its threats on its own.
The fear that Iran would use nuclear weapons against Israel is pure scaremongering.
Israel also possesses a nuclear arsenal.
Such an attack would amount to suicide for Tehran.
Moreover, there is no reason for the United States to be involved in a potential nuclear confrontation between any countries in the world.
4) The freedom of the Iranian people is not the responsibility of the American government
The Declaration of Independence clearly defines that the purpose of the American government is the protection of the life, liberty and happiness of American citizens.
Iranians, however much we may sympathize with them on a human level, are not American citizens.
They do not pay taxes to the United States, they have not consented to be governed by Washington, and they are not entitled to demand American military or economic support.
If private American citizens wish to support social movements in Iran, they are free to do so with their own means.
This, however, is not the job of the state, Lippincott points out.
5) American taxpayer money is desperately needed at home
Every dollar spent on bombs for Iran is a dollar not invested in schools, hospitals, infrastructure and security within the United States.
War does not stimulate the economy.
It merely reallocates resources through taxation and debt.
The real needs are domestic: crime, social breakdown, economic insecurity.
The protection of the life and property of American citizens must take precedence over any ideological crusade abroad.
6) Intervention always comes back as a boomerang
Humanitarian wars and geostrategic interventions always end with the same result: hatred, chaos, refugee waves and long term costs.
The simplest and wisest solution is one: stay away.
If citizens truly believed that bombing Iran was a good idea, they would fund such efforts themselves.
The fact that they do not says a lot.
7) The golden rule of non intervention
Americans would never accept foreign military intervention on their soil for humanitarian reasons. Why should others.
If China or Russia threatened an attack because of police violence or immigration policy in the United States, the reaction would be explosive.
Respect for sovereignty must be mutual.
Time for a step back
Ellie Geranmayeh, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, estimates that a United States attack on Iran is inevitable and that Trump will justify the action by invoking the need to protect civilians.
However, she warned that the risks of military intervention are extremely high and there is no guarantee that such a development would improve the lives of Iranian citizens.
According to her, in the event of large scale American strikes, Tehran is likely to immediately raise the cost for Trump, especially during an election period, specifically the midterm elections 2026, by targeting American soldiers stationed at bases across the Middle East.
Despite the serious losses that Iran would suffer from such an attack, it retains, as emphasized, the ability to strike decisively at American and allied interests, either through attacks on energy infrastructure or through the blockade of critical international sea lanes.
The Middle East is chaos, and the United States has contributed more than anyone else to its creation.
To continue down the same path and expect different results is the definition of insanity.
The time has come to stop searching for monsters to destroy abroad and to turn attention to the real problems at home.
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