Europe is in a state of panic as hybrid warfare shifts into outer space, with Russia conducting a massive display of power and "signalling" that it can take control of European satellites at any moment. According to European security agencies and military officials, Russian spacecraft have approached and intercepted communications from at least 12 critical European satellites, sparking fears that Moscow is gaining the ability to interfere with, manipulate, or even paralyse the essential infrastructure of entire countries. Officials estimate that these potential interceptions, previously unreported, pose a risk not only of exposing sensitive information but also of allowing Moscow to manipulate orbits or even cause satellite crashes. Russian space vehicles have monitored European satellites with increasing intensity over the last three years, a period of heightened tension following Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia's manoeuvres in orbit
According to the Financial Times, for several years, military and civilian space authorities in the West have been tracking the activities of Luch-1 and Luch-2, two Russian objects that have performed repeated suspicious manoeuvres in orbit. Both vehicles have made dangerously close approaches to some of Europe's most significant geostationary satellites, which operate high above the Earth and serve the continent, including the UK, as well as large parts of Africa and the Middle East. According to orbital data and ground-based telescopic observations, they remained in close proximity for weeks at a time, particularly over the last three years. Since its launch in 2023, Luch-2 has approached 17 European satellites. "Both satellites are suspected of conducting sigint [signals intelligence] work," Major General Michael Traut, head of the German military's space command, told the Financial Times, referring to the practice of loitering near Western communications satellites.
A senior European intelligence official stated that the Luch vehicles were almost certainly intended to position themselves within the narrow cone of data beams transmitted from ground stations to satellites. The official expressed concern that sensitive information, particularly the command data for European satellites, is not encrypted, as many were launched years ago without advanced onboard computers. This makes them vulnerable to future interference or even destruction if hostile satellites have recorded their command data.
Russia takes the lead in space warfare
While China and the US have developed similar technologies, Russia possesses one of the most advanced space espionage programs and has been more aggressive in using vehicles to monitor satellites. "Satellite networks are the Achilles' heel of modern societies. Anyone who attacks them can paralyse entire nations," German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said in a speech last September. "Russian activities constitute a fundamental threat to us all, especially in space. A threat we can no longer ignore," he added.
The European satellites approached by Luch-1 and Luch-2 are primarily used for civilian purposes, such as satellite television, but they also carry sensitive government and some military communications. While the Luch-1 and Luch-2 are unlikely to possess the inherent capability to jam or destroy satellites themselves, a European intelligence official noted they have likely provided Russia with vast amounts of data on how such systems could be disrupted, both from the ground and in orbit. Major General Traut believes the Luch satellites have intercepted the "command link" of the satellites they approached—the channel connecting satellites to ground controllers that allows for orbital adjustments.
Analysts report that with such information, Russia could mimic ground operators, transmitting false commands to satellites to manipulate their thrusters, which are used for minor orbital corrections. These same thrusters could be used to knock satellites out of alignment or even cause them to crash back to Earth or drift uncontrollably into space. The information gathered by Luch-1 and Luch-2 could also help Russia coordinate less obvious attacks against Western interests. Monitoring other satellites can reveal who is using them and where, information that could later be exploited for targeted ground jamming or hacking attacks.
The Luch vehicles "performed manoeuvres and parked near geostationary satellites, often for many months," said Belinda Marchand, chief scientific advisor at Slingshot Aerospace, a US company that tracks objects in space using ground sensors and artificial intelligence. She added that Luch-2 is currently "in proximity" to Intelsat 39, a large geostationary satellite serving Europe and Africa. Since its 2023 launch, Luch-2 has hovered near at least 17 other geostationary satellites over Europe serving both commercial and government purposes, according to Slingshot data. "They have visited the same families, the same operators, so one can conclude they have a specific purpose or interest," said Norbert Pouzin, a senior orbital analyst at Aldoria, a French satellite tracking company. "All of these are operators based in NATO countries."
"Even if they cannot decrypt messages, they can extract a great deal of information... they can map how a satellite is used and identify, for example, the location of ground terminals," he added.
The launch of Cosmos 2589 and Cosmos 2590
Pouzin also reported that Russia now appears to be escalating its reconnaissance activity in space, having launched two new satellites last year named Cosmos 2589 and Cosmos 2590. These vehicles appear to possess similar manoeuvring capabilities to Luch-1 and Luch-2. Cosmos 2589 is now heading toward the same altitude as geostationary satellites, which orbit approximately 35,000 kilometres above the Earth, Pouzin stated.
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