NASA expects its satellite weighing 600 kilograms (1,323 pounds) to return to Earth on Tuesday, March 10, 2026. According to Space.com, the mission was originally designed to last only two years, but the Van Allen Probe and its twin, Van Allen Probe B, remained active until 2019. NASA launched these satellites in August 2012 to collect critical data regarding Earth's radiation belts and study the impact of solar activity on astronauts and technology. As NASA stated: "By observing these dynamic regions, the Van Allen Probes contributed to improving space weather forecasts and their potential consequences." Both craft were deactivated in 2019. According to the US Space Force, the Van Allen Probe satellite is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere on Tuesday at 19:45 EDT, with a margin of ±24 hours. A NASA spokesperson stated: "NASA expects most parts of the satellite to burn up during atmospheric entry, but some sections are expected to survive."
Early return of Probe A
Initially, the two satellites were expected to remain in orbit until 2034. However, increased solar activity caused Earth's atmosphere to expand, creating greater friction on the satellites and accelerating their return. Unlike Probe A, Probe B is not expected to re-enter the atmosphere before 2030.
Potential risks to humans
According to NASA observations, most parts of the satellite will burn up in the atmosphere, but certain fragments may survive. Nevertheless, the risk to human life is considered extremely low. "The probability of someone being injured is small—approximately 1 in 4,200," NASA reports. The risk is even smaller (~1 in 5,000) as Earth is covered by 70% water. Thus, the fragments that do not burn up will likely fall into the sea rather than inhabited areas.
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