As an emerging eurozone market, Greece will lose its appeal once it becomes a developed market.
On 7 October 2025, FTSE Russell — as BankingNews had already predicted — announced that it will upgrade the Athens Stock Exchange from a secondary emerging market to a developed market as of 21 September 2026.
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) is expected to follow suit in March or May 2026, with the official reclassification scheduled for March or May 2027.
While this has been presented as major news, in reality, it is not particularly significant. On the contrary, we believe that the Greek stock market, as an emerging market within the eurozone, will lose much of its attractiveness once it becomes a developed market within the same currency area.
The loss will be more than the gains
The Greek stock market stands to lose more than it gains from this upgrade.
Let us assume that, under MSCI’s timeline,
funds worth €6–7 billion will exit the market, while €8 billion in new capital will enter during the reclassification period.
Trading volumes will undoubtedly soar, but Greece will remain an extremely marginal market among developed peers.
The rally that brought the index to 2,070 points as an emerging market should be attributed more to the security of the euro than to any genuine internal momentum in the Greek market itself.
Better to be first in the village, as an emerging market, than last in the city, as a developed one
Something along these lines will likely apply to the Greek market.
The investor profile will indeed change, attracting more long-term players; yet this does not guarantee a sustained upward trend. It is worth recalling that the Greek stock market first plunged into chaos as a developed market before eventually being downgraded to emerging status.
BankingNews' view
BankingNews is not as negative about Greece’s transition from emerging to developed market status as it was regarding the investment-grade upgrades by credit rating agencies. However, we believe that the risks for the Greek market will rise sharply once it joins the developed category — simply because of the structural nature of that classification.
Moreover, given the special weighting and limited scale of the Greek market, this inclusion risks being little more than a parody in terms of real impact.
Foreign analysts turn more cautious
Meanwhile, HSBC has downgraded Greece from “overweight” to “neutral” in its GEMs Equity Quarterly report.
According to the bank, the key positive factors that fuelled the rally, such as structural reforms, fiscal stability, and improved dividend yields, are now fully priced in.
This means investors will need to be more selective, seeking new catalysts for further upside potential.
Outlook for 2026
The Athens Stock Exchange is expected to reach 2,600 points in 2026, which constitutes a 25% increase from current levels.
However, many stocks are now in bubble territory...
www.bankingnews.gr
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) is expected to follow suit in March or May 2026, with the official reclassification scheduled for March or May 2027.
While this has been presented as major news, in reality, it is not particularly significant. On the contrary, we believe that the Greek stock market, as an emerging market within the eurozone, will lose much of its attractiveness once it becomes a developed market within the same currency area.
The loss will be more than the gains
The Greek stock market stands to lose more than it gains from this upgrade.
Let us assume that, under MSCI’s timeline,
funds worth €6–7 billion will exit the market, while €8 billion in new capital will enter during the reclassification period.
Trading volumes will undoubtedly soar, but Greece will remain an extremely marginal market among developed peers.
The rally that brought the index to 2,070 points as an emerging market should be attributed more to the security of the euro than to any genuine internal momentum in the Greek market itself.
Better to be first in the village, as an emerging market, than last in the city, as a developed one
Something along these lines will likely apply to the Greek market.
The investor profile will indeed change, attracting more long-term players; yet this does not guarantee a sustained upward trend. It is worth recalling that the Greek stock market first plunged into chaos as a developed market before eventually being downgraded to emerging status.
BankingNews' view
BankingNews is not as negative about Greece’s transition from emerging to developed market status as it was regarding the investment-grade upgrades by credit rating agencies. However, we believe that the risks for the Greek market will rise sharply once it joins the developed category — simply because of the structural nature of that classification.
Moreover, given the special weighting and limited scale of the Greek market, this inclusion risks being little more than a parody in terms of real impact.
Foreign analysts turn more cautious
Meanwhile, HSBC has downgraded Greece from “overweight” to “neutral” in its GEMs Equity Quarterly report.
According to the bank, the key positive factors that fuelled the rally, such as structural reforms, fiscal stability, and improved dividend yields, are now fully priced in.
This means investors will need to be more selective, seeking new catalysts for further upside potential.
Outlook for 2026
The Athens Stock Exchange is expected to reach 2,600 points in 2026, which constitutes a 25% increase from current levels.
However, many stocks are now in bubble territory...
www.bankingnews.gr
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