The prospect of Turkey returning to the fifth-generation F-35 fighter jet program is entering its final phase, following information that the United States and Turkey have reached a landmark agreement, which provides for the reintegration of Ankara into the program, under the condition of removing the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft systems.
According to information from well-informed sources, Turkey is considering the transfer of the S-400 systems to the United Arab Emirates, a development that will lift the main obstacle which led to its expulsion from the program in 2019.
If the agreement is completed, the Turkish Air Force is estimated to receive its first six F-35A jets by the end of 2026.
The six F-35s waiting for seven years
One of the most impressive elements of the case is that six F-35A fighters, which had been manufactured exclusively for Turkey, remain stored in the United States for more than seven years.
The aircraft were to be delivered as early as 2020, but after Turkey received the first S-400 batteries, Washington suspended Ankara's participation in the program.
Although there was huge international demand for the F-35s, the American authorities did not make them available to other customers, a fact that several analysts interpret as an indication that a long-term plan for the reintegration of Turkey already existed.
Turkey was among the main partners of the program
Turkey was not a simple buyer.
It joined the program in 2002 as one of the nine founding partner countries, investing approximately 1.4 billion dollars in the development of the aircraft.
The original planning of the Turkish Ministry of Defense provided for the acquisition of up to 130 F-35A jets, while a significant part of the production was carried out by Turkish defense industries such as Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), Kale Aerospace, Alp Aviation, AYESAS, and Roketsan.
These companies manufactured hundreds of components of the aircraft, from structural elements to wiring systems, engine parts, and cockpit displays.
The rift due to the S-400
The first Turkish F-35A was officially presented in Texas in June 2018.
At the same time, Turkish pilots were training at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona.
The situation changed dramatically, however, in July 2019, when Turkey received the first batteries of the Russian S-400 systems.
The United States immediately expelled the Turkish pilots from training, interrupted the industrial participation of Turkey, and froze the delivery of all aircraft.
Although the six fighters had already been completed, their ownership remained with the American government.
Why Washington's stance is changing now
The potential return of Turkey to the program is linked to the new geopolitical reality.
Ankara remains a critical member of NATO, particularly in the Black Sea, while it plays an important role in developments in Syria and the general security architecture of the region.
The reintegration of Turkey is estimated to significantly reinforce the air power of NATO in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, increasing the pressure against Russia and Iran.
At the same time, it will allow the United States to transfer a larger part of its military resources toward the Indo-Pacific, where they consider the greatest strategic challenge of the coming decades to be located.
The special relationship between Trump and Erdogan
Turkey's return to the F-35 program cannot be decoupled from the special political and personal relationship that American President Donald Trump has developed with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The two leaders have maintained for a series of years a direct channel of communication, based more on personal negotiation, transactions, and mutual recognition of power than on traditional diplomatic processes.
Trump has repeatedly praised Erdogan publicly, presenting him as a strong leader and Turkey as an important strategic partner of the United States.
Already from his first presidential term, he characterized Turkey as a "great NATO ally" and a strategic partner of Washington.
This relationship returned to the forefront with even greater intensity, as Trump stated that he intends to lift American sanctions against Turkey and that he views the possibility of selling the F-35s positively.
Trump's approach is deeply transactional
He does not seem to face Turkey primarily through the prism of objections over human rights, the domestic policy of Erdogan, or the repeated conflicts of Ankara with other Western allies. On the contrary, he focuses on military power, geographic position, the potential for mediation, and Turkey's capability to affect many different fronts simultaneously.
Ankara controls access toward the Black Sea, possesses the second largest army in NATO, has a strong presence in Syria, the Caucasus, Libya, and the Middle East, while it can converse with both Russia and Ukraine.
For the Trump administration, which seeks to reduce the permanent direct military involvement of the United States on multiple fronts, a strong and cooperative Turkey can function as a regional power multiplier.
Analysts point out that the geographic position and military weight of Turkey make it extremely difficult to ignore or exclude from Western planning.
The good personal relationship between Trump and Erdogan also offers the Turkish President a significant advantage: it allows him to bypass to an extent the distrust that continues to exist in the American Congress, the Pentagon, and parts of the American security establishment.
What this development means for Greece
For Greece, the potential return of Turkey to the F-35 program constitutes a development with particular strategic significance.
On the one hand, Greece has already initiated the acquisition of the same type of fighters, a fact that will allow it to maintain a high level of technological deterrence.
However, if Turkey also acquires a significant number of F-35s, the qualitative advantage that the Hellenic Air Force was expected to acquire will be noticeably restricted.
At the same time, the return of Ankara to the program may signal a new period of closer military cooperation between the United States and Turkey, a fact affecting the balances in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean.
On the other hand, Greece continues to possess significant advantages, such as the modernized F-16 Viper fleet, the Rafale fighters, investments in anti-aircraft defense, and the ever closer defense cooperation with the United States and France.
In any case, if the return of Turkey to the program is confirmed, the balance of air power in the region will enter a new phase, with fifth-generation technology constituting the defining factor for the operational capabilities of the two countries in the coming years.
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