In recent years, banks have been presented as a stabilizing pillar of the economy, as guardians of growth and “normality” after successive crises. Behind official announcements, balance sheets, and reassuring statements, however, a different picture is taking shape, darker and more troubling. A picture that serves as a reminder that the financial system remains fragile, exposed to risks that accumulate silently until they become explosive. The “hidden black hole” does not concern only bad investments or incorrect interest rate assessments. It concerns an operating model that for years was built on cheap money, excessive leverage, and the belief that central banks would always intervene at the last moment. But when the environment changes, when interest rates rise, property markets come under pressure, and valuations correct violently, losses that until yesterday were “accounting” losses become real.
Forecast for a recession cycle
In April of last year, the well known geopolitical and financial cycle analyst Charles Nenner predicted a recession cycle beginning at the end of 2025 and continuing into 2026. The US economy, and therefore the global economy, is showing clear signs of deceleration. Nenner states: “I need to adjust the data for all the migrants who entered the country, but we will soon see rising unemployment”. The next major negative surprise for the economy concerns the banks. Nenner predicts: “Institutions I work with that sell real estate in New York are informing me that many banks are already negative. If you look at their books in California, they are already recording large losses. They did not exit their bonds because they believed interest rates would never rise. There are already many problems, but they have not yet been revealed. I do not know if there will be bankruptcies, but things will be exposed, and they will face large losses when they are forced to show their books”.
Troubled banks
What, then, does Nenner foresee for troubled banks? He says: “I imagine the Fed or the government will intervene, because if you are a banker and you lose a fortune, you are always rescued with taxpayer money. That is why they never improve”. Regarding gold and silver, there is both good and bad news. First the bad news. When asked whether he would buy gold and silver now, Nenner replied: “No, not at this moment, because the cycle is downward for now. The same applies to gold. The cycle is downward. If we close below 4.700 dollars, we will see some downside price targets. Usually, whatever rises quickly falls quickly. It is not over for gold and silver, it is simply a correction”. Nenner placed his clients into gold at 1.600 dollars per ounce and bought silver at 29 dollars per ounce. The good news, as Nenner points out, is: “The bull market for gold and silver will continue until the end of 2027. Until then, we can make certain adjustments”. Concerning the war cycle, the news is good, for now. In the Middle East, Nenner says: “At this time, the war cycle is not expected to intensify”. What about the war cycle for Europe and Russia? “No, it will not intensify there either. War cycles are currently at their peak. There will be no escalation in the short term”.
Concern about China
Nenner remains concerned about China and Taiwan in the future. The truly bad news regarding the war cycle appears in the 2030–2032 period. Nenner states: “The 2030–2032 war cycle will be very bad. There will be many deaths. They will begin launching rockets, and how many will die? I believe it will be billions of people, and that is what the numbers indicate”. Nenner warns about terrorists allegedly brought into the country by the Biden administration, who could trigger bombs in the United States “on a large scale”. He argues that this will form part of the war cycle toward the end of this decade. Nenner also stated that Trump could help soften the economic downturn of the United States, but he cannot stop the cycle of economic decline. As Nenner noted: “You cannot stop winter, but you can put on a winter coat, and Trump is a winter coat”. Now, Nenner says: “So much damage has been done to America that Trump cannot fix it. The cycle is turning downward, and there is nothing you can do about it”. Nenner had also predicted in January 2024 that President Trump “would return”.
www.bankingnews.gr
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