Global alarm as satellite imagery reveals Iran’s nuclear preparations, what is happening in Isfahan and Natanz

President of the United States, Donald Trump, stated this week that his country would “win easily” in any military conflict with Iran.
However, recent activity on the territory of the Islamic Republic indicates that any victory may be short lived.
Satellite images suggest that the Pentagon would face an opponent focused on protecting its most critical military and nuclear capabilities.
Photographs taken this month show Iranian engineers clearing debris at nuclear facilities damaged during the 12 day conflict with the United States and Israel in June, while reinforcing key points against future attacks.

Critical contacts

American and Iranian diplomats are gathering today in Geneva in an effort to find a diplomatic solution, which both sides describe as the last opportunity to avoid new hostilities.
If negotiations fail, Trump has stated that he is ready to escalate the situation, supported by what officials describe as the largest United States military buildup in the Middle East in the past 20 years.

What the American military will face

However, if he gives the order for a military operation, military planners will face a dispersed and partially concealed target due to Iran’s difficult geography.
The scale of their mission will be amplified by limited international oversight and the limits of even the most powerful conventional munitions.
Commercial satellite imagery reveals what nuclear nonproliferation experts consider the central factor for Trump’s potential military intervention: United States airpower can destroy buildings, but it cannot eliminate scientific expertise, stored material, or the political will to rebuild Iran’s nuclear capability.

Iran’s largest nuclear research center in Isfahan

Before inspections were restricted, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had reported that Iran had accumulated enough highly enriched uranium for approximately twelve nuclear devices.
The condition and location of this material have not been independently verified for more than eight months, since Iran suspended IAEA access to the bombed facilities.
While Iran’s most sensitive material is believed to be stored in underground facilities, only on site inspections could confirm whether the material has not been moved or redirected.
“Hardening against attack indicates resilience,” said Darya Dolzikova, senior nonproliferation researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
“This is a country that can rebuild if it wants to.”
Images show that tunnel entrances near the nuclear complex in Isfahan have been refilled, a step analysts say is designed to prevent collapse from potential airstrikes and to seal access points vulnerable to penetrating munitions.

Uranium enrichment facility in Natanz

The subsequent limited IAEA access to Iran has widened intelligence gaps.
Without inspectors on the ground, external governments have limited ability to assess whether centrifuges used for uranium enrichment were destroyed, relocated, or removed in advance.
This uncertainty complicates targeting decisions and post strike damage assessments.
Even if known facilities are rendered inoperable, analysts say Iran may be able to reconstitute enrichment elsewhere.
Unlike the reactors of Iraq and Libya, the Iranian program operates at industrial scale and is supported by decades of accumulated expertise.

Iran’s strategic challenge

Iran’s geography intensifies the challenge.
The country spans approximately 1,6 million square kilometers, roughly twice the size of Texas, with mountainous terrain suitable for tunneling, dispersal, and concealment.
Missile production infrastructure is a characteristic example of this strategic scale.
The Khojir complex east of Tehran, near the summit of Kuh-e Barjamali, is an extensive industrial site critical for supplying fuels and components for ballistic missiles.
Images show buildings separated by embankments and blast walls designed to prevent chain reactions from explosions.
Eliminating this capability would likely require repeated strikes.

The challenge for the American military

Military action also carries political consequences for Iran.
Previous conflicts have strengthened Iran’s hardline factions.
Strikes could accelerate rather than halt a decision to produce nuclear weapons if leaders conclude that deterrence is necessary for survival.
“Military action is not decisively effective as a nonproliferation strategy,” said Dolzikova. “It may delay. It rarely eliminates.”

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