Despite successive problems in American foreign policy — from failed talks with Iran to the political defeat of Viktor Orbán — US Vice President J.D. Vance appears to have remained almost silent in the face of a potentially defining diplomatic development: the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. This meeting could redefine US-China relations and even influence developments surrounding Iran.
From "greatest threat"… to silence
Vance had previously characterized China as the "greatest threat" to the United States and consistently maintained a hardline stance against Beijing. However, following his comment last year regarding "Chinese peasants," he has spoken very little publicly about China. He does not appear to be playing any substantial role in shaping a softer American approach ahead of Trump’s visit to Beijing.
Rubio and Hegseth change tone toward Beijing
In contrast, top officials of the Trump administration appear to be adopting a more conciliatory rhetoric toward China. Secretary of State Marco Rubio — known for years for his hardline stance against Beijing — stated that Washington and Beijing have achieved "strategic stability" and highlighted China’s significant role in shaping a reliable arms control framework. At the same time, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who is considered even more aggressive toward China, noted that Beijing provided assurances it is not supplying weapons to Iran. Although neither has commented in detail on Trump’s upcoming visit to China, their statements indicate an effort to create a positive climate before the meeting.
The vice presidency is no longer a decorative role
Some argue that Vance’s limited involvement simply reflects the restricted institutional scope of his office in foreign policy. However, an article by Modern Diplomacy notes that this hasn't been the case for decades. Since the era of Walter Mondale, US vice presidents have gained an active role in diplomacy, particularly in relations with China. George H. W. Bush managed crises with Beijing under Ronald Reagan. Al Gore visited China under Bill Clinton for environmental issues. Joe Biden, under Barack Obama, had contacts with Chinese leaders regarding economic, defense, and nuclear issues, including efforts to limit the Iranian nuclear program.
Vance "trapped" in the MAGA identity
The article argues that the real explanation for Vance’s stance lies in his political ambitions and his relationship with the MAGA movement. Vance appears to be trying to present himself as the primary ideological successor to Trump ahead of a potential presidential candidacy in 2028. However, MAGA remains deeply connected to Trump’s personal political style and a version of "America First" that emphasizes displays of power and military pressure. Conversely, his own version of "America First" appears more restrained and almost isolationist: fewer military involvements, a reduction in American overextension, and a focus on long-term confrontation with China.
The fear of political contradiction
Within this context, even mild or neutral messages toward Beijing could be considered politically contradictory for Vance. The result is that the Vice President appears politically "tied" by the need to constantly prove his ideological loyalty to MAGA. The article even notes that since the start of the second Trump presidency, Vance has not held any publicly known meetings with high-ranking Chinese officials — unlike Mike Pence, who met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi just eight months after Trump’s first election.
"Visible but without real influence"
According to the analysis, Vance risks embodying a classic problem of the American vice presidency: high publicity but limited real influence. The article concludes that US-China relations need a vice president who functions as a stabilizing factor between Trump’s unpredictable stance and Beijing’s tendency to respond with escalatory pressure. Yet Vance, trapped in his ideological identity, appears increasingly less capable of assuming this role.
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