Russia and China are reshaping the global energy landscape against the backdrop of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, even though most industry experts do not believe the Middle East factor will evolve into a long-term "systemic shock." The average price of Russian natural gas exports is expected to rise by 11% compared to last year, according to a report by Vedomosti citing a Price Index Center study based on joint forecasts from Russian research organizations. The report attributes this significant revision in analyst estimates primarily to the conflict in the Middle East. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, caused by the crisis, has led to a rise in oil and petroleum product prices, while simultaneously affecting natural gas prices in international markets.
Rise in LNG exports
The escalation of the crisis also led to a revision of forecasts for Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. According to the consensus, Russia's LNG exports are expected to increase by 12% compared to last year. However, Maria Belova, Director of Research at Implementa, notes that the majority of industry experts do not believe the Middle East factor will evolve into a long-term systemic shock.
China at the center of the Russian energy game
China now absorbs more than half of Russian natural gas exports to countries outside the former Soviet Union, a fact that turns the Moscow–Beijing relationship into a central pillar of the new energy architecture. Natural gas prices are linked to oil prices, but with a time lag, explains Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman. According to him, the real impact of the Middle East crisis on the prices of Russian exports to China will begin to be felt towards the end of the year. Kaufman also estimates that even if the conflict de-escalates soon, the global LNG market will continue to face a deficit in 2026. This practically means that Russia may gain an even stronger negotiating position for exports to Asia, while China secures long-term energy sufficiency through cheaper and stable Russian supplies.
The Strait of Hormuz defines the global market
Experts estimate that the duration of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and the magnitude of the LNG deficit will be the key factors determining international natural gas prices this year. At the same time, increased summer natural gas demand in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region will play a decisive role, as pointed out by Belova and Igor Yushkov of the Financial University under the Russian government. The new energy crisis already appears to be accelerating a historic shift of the global energy center of gravity toward Eurasia, with Russia and China strengthening their influence in international markets.
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