Germany is one step away from a historic reversal in its post-war defense policy, as it considers reinstating mandatory military service. The inability of the voluntary recruitment system to meet the rearmament plan and cover the increased staffing needs of the Bundeswehr, combined with the rapid deterioration of the European security environment, is pushing Berlin toward decisions that were considered politically unthinkable just a few years ago. If recruitment targets are not met, Germany may reinstate compulsory service as early as 2027, opening a new chapter for its armed forces and for all of Europe.
From July 2027
Germany could reinstate mandatory military service as early as July 2027, as the voluntary recruitment system is insufficient to achieve the goals of strengthening the armed forces, Member of Parliament Thomas Rowekamp told AFP. Following the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, Germany launched an extensive recruitment campaign, aiming to increase the number of active soldiers from the current 186,000 to 260,000, as well as to create a force of 200,000 reservists by the mid-2030s, citing the alleged "Russian threat."
All those over 18
At the end of last year, the German parliament approved the Military Service Modernization Act, which requires all men aged 18 to register for potential military service, completing a relevant questionnaire and undergoing a medical examination. At the same time, they have the option to declare that they are not interested in serving in the army in any capacity. However, the law stipulates that, in the event of personnel shortages, recruits can be called up via a lottery system.
Only 530… volunteers
According to AFP, from January to May, only 530 people voluntarily declared their participation in military service, out of approximately 300,000 Germans who completed the relevant forms. "During the first half of next year, we must have a very substantive discussion about whether we can achieve the highly ambitious goals of increasing the number of active soldiers and reservists exclusively on a voluntary basis," said Thomas Rowekamp, chairman of the German parliament's Defense Committee and an MP for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). "I have serious doubts that this is feasible," Rowekamp added. The MP argued that Germany should "return to mandatory military service" if the projected recruitment targets are not met. "We must make this decision by July 31 of next year," he stated.
A wave of protests
Government plans triggered a wave of mass protests by young people earlier this year against the potential reinstatement of mandatory service. In March, a mobilization titled "Student Strike Against Mandatory Service" took place in Berlin, with thousands participating, while similar protests were organized in other German cities.
Stoking… terror regarding Russia
Germany abolished mandatory military service in 2011. Senior government officials, including Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, have repeatedly considered the possibility of its reinstatement, citing the need to prepare against potential "Russian aggression." Boris Pistorius had stated last year that Russia could attack a NATO member state as early as 2028, arguing that a significant increase in defense spending is required.
Stronger military force
Friedrich Merz also announced a plan to transform the German army into the strongest conventional military force in the European Union. It is noted that in February 2022, then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz presented a plan which provided, among other things, for: a special fund of 100 billion euros for the modernization of the armed forces, a permanent increase in defense spending, and achieving and exceeding the goal of 2% of GDP for defense, as requested by NATO. Germany’s goal is to spend 3.5% of its GDP on defense in 2029, an amount estimated at over 251 billion euros. As reported, Germany is investing in: F-35A fighter jets to replace Tornados, new Leopard 2A8 tanks, Puma and Boxer armored vehicles, air defense (including the European Sky Shield Initiative), large-scale ammunition, drone systems, and the modernization of the navy and frigates. These decisions constitute a rearmament of historic proportions.
The challenges
Despite major investments, Germany still faces, as evidenced by the latest information, significant personnel shortages. Also mentioned are time-consuming procurement procedures, the need for faster ammunition production, and the modernization of infrastructure for the movement of NATO forces. Overall, Germany's rearmament constitutes the largest change in German defense policy since the country's reunification in 1990. The goal is for the Bundeswehr to achieve higher operational readiness and for Germany to play a more active role in European and collective NATO defense.
The stance of Russia
Moscow has rejected claims that it poses a threat to European countries, labeling them "nonsense," and has even proposed providing written guarantees that it does not plan to attack European states. President Vladimir Putin stated that Western countries are openly preparing for war with Russia, using claims of a "Russian threat" as an excuse for their generalized militarization. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that Germany and the European Union as a whole are heading toward a "Fourth Reich" through their military reinforcement.
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