The Middle East is entering a new, extremely dangerous phase. Saudi Arabia is abandoning its strategy of self-restraint and moving to counterattack, opening a new front against Iran and its network of allies in Yemen and Iraq. Notable is the appeal by Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to the Revolutionary Guard Corps not to use Iraqi territory for attacks... With missile strikes on oil facilities, drone attacks, maritime blockades, and joint military operations with the United States, Riyadh shows it considers the period of waiting over. The stakes, however, extend beyond regional borders: the stability of the global energy market, the security of maritime trade routes, and the risk of a generalized regional conflict are now paramount, as the Middle East once again balances on the brink of an uncontrollable flare-up.
Encircled from 3 directions
Saudi Arabia spent the last five months attempting to avoid being dragged into a broader regional conflict, maintaining open channels of communication with Tehran, even as Iranian drones targeted its oil industry. Now, however, it appears encircled, facing enemies from three directions: Iran, alongside its allied forces in Iraq and Yemen. Over the past week, the kingdom was targeted by missile strikes from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, drone attacks by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, and fresh threats from Tehran.
Pulled the trigger
Earlier today, Tuesday morning (7/29/2026), it became clear that self-restraint was no longer an option. Saudi fighter jets, alongside US military aircraft, conducted strikes in the eastern region of Iraq. However, the stakes remain exceptionally high.
Dangerous entanglement
Entanglement in a broader conflict would represent a dangerous and potentially costly choice for Riyadh. Over the past decade, the country focused on opening its economy to foreign investments and transforming into a regional economic superpower. This strategy helped shape the de-escalation policy with Iran long before the war, leading to the 2023 agreement brokered by China.
Collapse of strategy
Today, however, this strategy is essentially collapsing, with Saudi Arabia positioned at the center of a storm. Confronting unpredictable adversaries skilled in asymmetric warfare and originating from three distinct directions presents a nightmare for military planners. Saudi Arabia has spent tens of billions of dollars modernizing its armed forces and procuring advanced air defense systems. However, it must defend a vast territory (roughly one-fifth the area of the United States), extensive coastlines, and oil facilities scattered across the entire country.
The Houthi threat
Over the weekend, Houthis launched missiles at two Saudi oil facilities along the Red Sea coast. Satellite imagery and geo-verified video indicate extensive damage at one facility in the Jazan region, near the border with Yemen. The missile attacks followed Houthi strikes against two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea after the group announced a blockade on Saudi shipping transiting the strategic Bab al-Mandeb strait. The Houthis claimed another attack against a Saudi vessel on Monday.
Significant escalation
For Saudi Arabia, which has redirected a large portion of its oil exports through Red Sea ports like Yanbu because the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually non-operational, this blockade represents a major escalation. The country plans to further increase oil exports through the Red Sea, aiming for approximately 9 million barrels per day within the next three years. However, tankers departing from Yanbu bound for Asian markets must pass through Bab al-Mandeb, leaving nearly three-quarters of Red Sea exports vulnerable to Houthi attacks, according to analysts.
Seven years of failure
Saudi Arabia spent seven years attempting, without success, to expel Houthis from northern Yemen after launching a major military operation in 2015. The ensuing conflict triggered one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. A truce was agreed upon in 2022, but it failed to yield lasting peace. Saudi Arabia maintained an economic and aerial blockade over Houthi-controlled regions.
New cycle of violence
Earlier this month, Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of bombing the airport in the capital Sanaa to prevent the landing of a direct flight from Tehran after the aircraft ignored warnings to divert. The flight was carrying a Houthi delegation returning from the funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. However, according to Nawaf Obeid of King's College London's Department of War Studies, "attention also turned to what else might have been transported inside the aircraft." This incident ignited a new cycle of violence, culminating in the weekend's missile strikes.
All red lines crossed
"All red lines have been crossed, all of Saudi Arabia's 'buttons' have been pressed by the Houthis," states analyst Mohammed al Basha. A large force of Yemeni fighters opposing the Houthis is assembling in the deserts of eastern Yemen, according to a regional source speaking to CNN. If it advances, it will be supported by Saudi air power, including Apache attack helicopters. For now, however, analysts assess that the Saudi response will remain focused primarily on airstrikes. On Friday, Saudi air forces struck the port of Hodeidah, the largest under Houthi control, in retaliation for tanker attacks.
Following the North Korea model
According to Nawaf Obeid, the Saudi air force is today far more effective than a decade ago in detecting, tracking, and neutralizing dispersed military threats, having integrated systems that "dramatically reduce time between detection and engagement." Concurrently, the possibility remains that the Houthis could be bought off, as they have repeatedly requested financial support to fund their large body of civil servants and militia members. "The Houthis appear to be following the North Korea model, using repeated cycles of provocation to extract political and financial concessions, transforming their territory south of Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea into their own stage," assesses Mohammed al Basha. It remains unclear whether they would abandon Iranian backing in exchange for financial incentives from Saudi Arabia.
The threat from Iraq
Pro-Iranian militias launched two waves of drone attacks targeting critical Saudi infrastructure and the capital Riyadh on Monday and Tuesday, according to the Saudi Ministry of Defense. The Houthis may have provided technical support to these militias. Riyadh's patience ran out. Early Tuesday, it announced it had executed "precise and targeted strikes" against militias in eastern Iraq that were "linked to the attacks on the Kingdom's oil infrastructure." The kingdom thus drew a new red line. "The Kingdom emphasizes that it does not seek escalation, but will respond to any attack it receives," the Ministry of Defense stated. The Popular Mobilization Forces, the umbrella group for the militias, announced that at least 20 people were killed or wounded in the strikes.
CENTCOM: A strong response
US Central Command (CENTCOM) described the joint operation as a "strong response" to more than 30 drone attacks attributed to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Saudi authorities have not forgotten the highly precise and destructive attack on the Abqaiq processing facility in 2019, which temporarily knocked out nearly half of the country's oil production. The Houthis claimed responsibility at the time, but intelligence sources informed CNN that the attack likely originated from Iraq. On that occasion, Saudi Arabia opted against a military response, though it held Iran responsible.
The Iranian threat
In March and April, Saudi authorities accelerated investments in counter-drone technologies as Iranian Shahed-type drones targeted oil infrastructure on the country's eastern coast. Saudi Arabia continues to face a dual threat from Iranian drones and short-range missiles that can be launched from across the Persian Gulf. Although Iran has not directly targeted Saudi Arabia since April, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated this week that "certain Persian Gulf nations participated independently in military attacks against Iran. The United States bears responsibility, but the role of certain regional nations cannot be ignored." Saudi Arabia carried out limited airstrikes against Iran early in the conflict, but according to a diplomatic source, these were carefully calibrated.
The difficult dilemma
The objective was to demonstrate that the kingdom can defend itself "even if the US is not present," the diplomat told CNN in May. If Saudi Arabia comes under attack again from Iranian missiles and drones, it will face a stark dilemma: either respond directly, entangling itself deeper in the war, or exercise restraint, empowering a regime in Tehran that many view as more hardline than prior to the conflict.
Huge economic cost
The country is already incurring significant economic costs from the conflict. During the first quarter of the year, it recorded its largest quarterly fiscal deficit since 2018, as it increased public spending to mitigate the effects of war and a sluggish economy. The deficit was partially offset by increased revenues stemming from higher oil prices. However, any further disruption to oil production and exports could upend this balance. Many of the kingdom's ambitious development projects have already been scaled back.
A difficult neighborhood
Ultimately, Saudi Arabia now finds itself in a region that appears far more dangerous and volatile than on February 28, the day the war began. Saudi officials appear blindsided by the abrupt shifts in policy from US President Donald Trump regarding Iran and Gaza. While military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the United States remains tight, broader anxiety exists in Riyadh that it could be left isolated against a more aggressive and determined Iran should US engagement diminish.
Critical crossroads
The kingdom and its allies stand at a critical crossroads. The situation is complicated by the fact that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are only now beginning to repair relations, which were strained by the UAE's sudden exit from the OPEC organization, disagreements over the Iran conflict, and differing choices regarding which factions to support against the Houthis in Yemen. Saudi Arabia now appears to have concluded that there is a limit to the attacks and pressure it can endure before launching military retaliation.
Appeal from Iraq to Revolutionary Guards: Do not drag us into war
Influential Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called on Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and armed militias to refrain from attacks utilizing Iraqi territory, warning them not to drag the country into another war. In a post on the X platform, Muqtada al-Sadr stated on Wednesday that Iraq has not been used as a launchpad for attacks against Iran, and therefore the Revolutionary Guards should stay clear of Iraqi soil. He added that "uncontrolled militias must not give our brothers in the Gulf states a pretext to target our sacred land." He urged all parties not to be "dragged into the plans of the Zionist-American enemy, which seeks to incite brothers to fight and kill one another." Muqtada al-Sadr condemned violations of Iraqi sovereignty and what he characterized as militia efforts to "drag Iraq into a futile war," calling on the government to ensure security and enforce state authority. Concurrently, he warned of "sleeper terrorist cells, both inside and outside the country," that could exploit religious and sectarian differences to destabilize Iraq. "Iraq and its people need peace," stated Muqtada al-Sadr, adding that the country "has suffered enough from a war that, unfortunately, has exhausted all resources and damaged its dignity." Finally, he appealed to neighboring countries to work toward peace and reconciliation, calling for a region "free of foreign military bases, normalization of relations, and abhorrent colonial hegemony."
Popular Mobilization Forces denounce "treacherous terrorist attack"
Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) condemned the US-Saudi attacks, which, according to their statement, caused the deaths of at least 20 fighters, warning that "units remain in full operational readiness." In a statement published on Telegram, the PMF condemned "the treacherous terrorist attack launched by Saudi Arabia and the United States, which targeted a number of headquarters and infrastructure of the Popular Mobilization Forces." The Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella structure of Iraqi militias supported, trained, and maintaining close ties with Iran, stated that the attacks constitute a "highly dangerous escalation" and violate Iraq's sovereignty as well as official state security institutions.
Mohammed Shia al-Sudani (former Iraqi Prime Minister): Violation of sovereignty
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani condemned the deadly US-Saudi strikes against Iraqi militias. "We condemn in the strongest possible terms the attack by Saudi Arabia and the United States that targeted positions of the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq," stated Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Mohammed Shia al-Sudani characterized the strike as a "flagrant violation of Iraqi sovereignty" and a "clear violation of international law and the United Nations Charter," as well as an insult to the "principle of Islamic brotherhood."
China's involvement
Iran is expected to receive its first batch of up to 400 Chinese-made man-portable air-defense systems in the coming weeks, according to three sources familiar with the deal who spoke to Reuters, as Tehran seeks to rebuild its air defenses amid the war with the United States.
What Iran is purchasing
The purchase, valued at $60–70 million, represents one of Iran's largest known efforts to bolster its short-range air defense following the outbreak of war with the US and Israel, which exposed gaps in the country's ability to protect military facilities and critical infrastructure. The contract provides for the supply of 300 to 400 man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), including Chinese-made QW-12 and FN-16 missiles, the sources stated. The agreement was signed with Hong Kong-based Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, which, according to sources, acted as an intermediary between the Iranian side and the Chinese supplier.
Iran seeks rearmament after months of war
The sources requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. Iran's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. China's Foreign Ministry stated: "Relevant reports are completely groundless. China has consistently played a role in promoting peace and ending conflict." The parent company, Beijing-based Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group, did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. Iran is seeking to replenish its military capabilities following months of clashes during which the United States and Israel struck facilities linked to the country's missile, drone, and air defense programs.
The threats
The conflict highlighted the difficulty of protecting fixed military installations and strategic targets against modern aircraft and precision-guided weapons. Washington abruptly paused its two-week bombing campaign on Saturday, but Donald Trump stated that attacks would resume if negotiations fail to yield an end to the conflict, which has lasted five months and has theoretically been under a ceasefire since April. The delivery of hundreds of MANPADS systems will significantly boost Iran's inventory of short-range anti-aircraft weapons and demonstrate a deepening of military ties between China and Iran. However, sources noted that while the agreement has been signed, delivery schedules, final quantities, and other implementation details remain subject to change.
Pakistan denies involvement
Under the agreed plan, initial deliveries will be conducted by air from Urumqi in western China, transiting through Pakistan to Iran. Sources did not clarify whether the final leg of the transit route would occur by air or land. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) of the Pakistan Armed Forces stated: "Speculation that Pakistan is involved in the transfer of anti-aircraft weapons from China to Iran is entirely fabricated and false." A spokesperson for Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment.
China and Iran consider overland routes
Although Iran has invested heavily over the past two decades in missiles, drones, and radar systems, military analysts note that portable air-defense systems are particularly vital because they can be rapidly dispersed, operated by small teams, and easily relocated, making them less vulnerable than fixed anti-aircraft batteries. A European security source stated that authorities in their country are aware of several contracts under negotiation for the potential sale of QW-series MANPADS to Iran, including the QW-12, QW-18, and QW-19. A second security source from the Middle East stated that Iran was seeking to purchase QW-12 and QW-18 missiles, though they were unaware that a deal had already been finalized.
What are the QW-12 and FN-16 systems
The QW-12 and FN-16 systems are man-portable infrared-guided surface-to-air missiles designed to counter low-flying aircraft, helicopters, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Their portability allows for rapid deployment around military installations, energy infrastructure, and other sensitive targets. Defense analysts consider the QW-12 to lag in capabilities compared to newer variants in the series, such as the QW-18 and QW-19; nevertheless, they assess that it still provides effective short-range defense against drones and other low-flying targets.
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