At a moment when US President Donald Trump expands his empty... threats by targeting Oman after Iran, Tehran, in a display of strength, rushes to set the conditions for how the Strait of Hormuz could reopen to international navigation.
Now, more and more analysts assess that the US has been defeated and that Iran will remain the absolute master in Hormuz, even collecting some form of fee...
Experts argue that it is now clear that Donald Trump is left with no good options, and for this reason they recommend... that he withdraw from the Persian Gulf, declaring himself and the US winners... even if no one believes it... not even themselves...
Trump: Hormuz... new US territory
Donald Trump posted on Truth Social an image of the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as «new US territory».
It is noted that Donald Trump recently reiterated with even greater emphasis his ambition to make the Strait of Hormuz «United States territory», stating: «We control it. We control it with the blockade».
However, the reaction from Iran was immediate.
Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, responded to Donald Trump's post stating that Donald Trump's «delusion» regarding this maritime passage will soon be corrected.
«Soon, Donald Trump's delusion regarding the Strait of Hormuz will either correct itself or we will correct the delusions of this delirious man», wrote Gharibabadi.
IRGC: We control the Straits, the US is weak
Major General Mostafa Izadi, deputy commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated that the Strait of Hormuz is under the control of Iranian forces.
«The enemy does not know what to do and is in a state of weakness», stated Izadi.
Ghalibaf (Iran): Hormuz closed until the US complies with the terms of the memorandum
The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the United States fulfills the terms of the interim agreement with Iran, including the lifting of the naval blockade and sanctions, as well as the release of frozen Iranian assets, stated Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
«I want to state it clearly: until the commitments undertaken by the United States in the memorandum of understanding are implemented, including the lifting of the blockade, the unfreezing of frozen assets, the lifting of oil sanctions, the cessation of threats and military operations on all fronts, as well as other conditions that the US accepted in the memorandum, the Straits will not open», stated Ghalibaf.
«I must also clarify that the opportunity created through the memorandum, with the lifting of the blockade and the ceasefire, contributed significantly to strengthening economic resilience and restoring the defense capabilities of Iran.
The Islamic Republic of Iran is ready, depending on the actions and attacks of the enemy, to inflict an even heavier defeat on them than before», emphasized the Iranian official.
Moataz Matar (Egyptian journalist): If the US attacks Iran, the Sea of Oman will become their grave
At the same time, Iran makes clear that it will not back down and that, if the United States attacks, it will have to accept the consequences.
Well-known Egyptian presenter and journalist Moataz Matar stated: «While American pressure toward Iran continues, Tehran's military messages have a different tone: there is no chance of backing down and, if you attack, you will have to accept the consequences.
The Sea of Oman will turn into a graveyard for you».
Majed al-Ansari (Qatar): We are waiting for the Iran-Oman deal for Hormuz
Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari stated during a press briefing that the parties mediating between Iran and the US will resume efforts to end the war of the US and Israel against Iran and to restart talks between the two sides after Iran and Oman announce a bilateral agreement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ceasefire over...
On August 17, the 60-day temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran expired.
Whether it was extended or not remains unclear, as conflicting reports circulate.
What follows?
The United States has three options for its next moves, and all of them are extremely bad.
Yet there is also a fourth option for Donald Trump: to withdraw, declaring himself the winner, even though this will convince no one.
Tehran is preparing for the continuation of the war, with time working in its favor.
There, they believe, writes The Wall Street Journal citing Iranian officials, that negotiations with Washington may merely constitute an «interlude before conflict» and that the signed memorandum «was likely an attempt by the US and Israel to reduce pressure on the global economy and buy time».
Deep distrust
The Iranians, for obvious reasons, harbor «deep distrust» toward the US, which «will likely not allow the two sides to reach a viable agreement for an immediate end to the conflict».
And yet, even in its current form, the war with Iran is becoming unbearable for the United States.
Therefore, Donald Trump, in order to exit it, will have to choose among three scenarios, each of which is extremely unfavorable to him.
Or combine the best aspects for him from each of them and engineer a fourth option, with which he will attempt to save himself.
«I will flatten everything»
First, Donald Trump can launch powerful strikes against Iran once again, potentially alongside Israel, in a final effort to convince Tehran to «release» the US from the war in which they have failed.
The main objective is to attempt to prevent Iran from turning transit through the Strait of Hormuz into a toll-based system, almost no one speaks of the nuclear issue anymore.
In this case, however, American stockpiles of high-precision weapons would suffice for approximately one and a half to two weeks, after which, especially regarding cruise missiles, the Americans simply would not have anything left with which to continue striking targets.
Iran, for its part, will not remain idle and will respond with painful strikes, including against regional countries linked to the United States that have turned into mutual «hostages».
Desert... UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait
The Iranians are fully capable of turning the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait, which prospered before the war, into a desert if they destroy water desalination facilities, something characterized as easy.
Donald Trump is convinced that the US could completely destroy Iran.
The use of nuclear weapons by the US against Iran as an act of desperation would put Donald Trump himself, who had promised the American people that he would not wage aggressive wars, as well as his entire team, in an terribly difficult position, and would still not solve the problem.
Undoubtedly, US adversaries around the world would not miss the opportunity to exploit the fact that the «hegemon's» arsenals have emptied and cannot be replenished quickly.
Leave or exhaust Iran?
Second, conclude peace on Iran's terms so that before the autumn midterm elections in the US, fuel prices drop and the unpopular war becomes a thing of the past.
This, however, would mean a massive loss of prestige and a blow to the belief in American omnipotence.
Many would blame Donald Trump for this, who criticized his predecessor in the White House for a balanced deal with Iran, but lost the war against it himself, proving simultaneously to the entire world that the American «king» is naked.
Even the Iranians, it is reported, state that they had not imagined how weak the United States actually is.
Third, attempt to exhaust Iran, avoiding active combat operations while maintaining the naval blockade.
Yet this too carries risks both for Washington's image and for the global economy, the Strait of Hormuz will remain blockaded in this case, as well as for the electoral prospects of the Republicans under Donald Trump in the US midterm elections to be held on November 3.
At the same time, Tehran possesses powerful allies helping it stay upright: Russia and China.
The fourth option
We will soon see how Donald Trump will act, given that none of the three options above satisfies him.
He may buy a little more time, though this by no means guarantees that there will not be periodic flare-ups of reciprocal strikes.
However, an indication has appeared regarding how Washington will act.
A fourth solution will be chosen... which will be a synthesis of the previous three.
On his social network Truth Social, Donald Trump wrote on August 17: «I am very happy to see that Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan recently, finally, signed the Mecca Agreement for mutual defense.
This shows how the countries of the Middle East are uniting and how, finally, they will be able to defend themselves more effectively».
Collapse of Pax Americana
The word «finally» provokes irony, because the signatories took this step out of desperation, understanding that the position of the United States in the Persian Gulf, which proved incompetent and creates only problems, will soon be taken by Iran.
This, according to Donald Trump, is «a big, bold, and important first step».
And what will the second step be?
Can you not guess?
The United States will leave the region, leaving the Arabs, Turks, and Pakistanis to pick up the pieces of the Pax Americana that collapsed there and transferring to them the burden of containing Iran, without even checking whether they will succeed in doing so.
Because the war with Iran proved that the US is no longer what it once was, and Donald Trump, if he does not want to lose everything, must focus on more realistic objectives, such as subjugating tiny Cuba, something that also does not promise to be easy, as it is not a «banana republic» like Venezuela.
Conclusions
Therefore, the second option will likely be taken as a baseline.
Its essence is that the US, if it does not withdraw completely, will drastically reduce its military presence in the region.
This is inevitable anyway, as many American bases in the Middle East have been destroyed by the Iranians, and there is no money, materiel, or manpower to restore and protect them.
Congress did not give, and will not give, Donald Trump money even to continue the war.
And it is not only the Democrats: neither Republican senators nor representatives will insist on such a thing.
The American people, who consider this war unnecessary, simply will not understand it and will punish their elected representatives at the ballot box if they support the continuation of a disastrous war waged largely for the benefit of another state, Israel.
Manufacturing... victory
However, Donald Trump will need to create the impression that he «won».
That is why, before the bulk of American forces return home, he will attempt in the end to «slam the door on the way out», to «complete the crushing of Iran, which is suffering a very heavy defeat», by launching heavy strikes against the «madmen», in order to provoke them into responding fiercely against neighboring countries and attempt to turn Tehran against the states that signed the Mecca Agreement.
Then, along with the Europeans, he will suggest to them, as a form of revenge, that they pick up the pieces, arguing that the US is far away and does not use the Strait of Hormuz while possessing, if Venezuela is factored in, the largest oil reserves in the world.
End of war without an agreement
Because the US is rather unlikely to force Iran to relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz, Donald Trump will likely be afraid to sign an agreement with Tehran recognizing this new reality.
This means that the United States can end the war without concluding formal peace with Iran, to facilitate for themselves, and for Israel, the ability to conduct periodic strikes against it in the future in case of any threat.
Maintaining some form of naval blockade of Iran cannot be ruled out either, something that will tie it even closer to Russia and China.
This is roughly how Bloomberg sees the future as well: as the most probable scenario, under conditions where neither the US nor Iran can gain a decisive advantage, it considers the continuation of a relatively low-intensity conflict, periodically interrupted by fragile ceasefires and new waves of strikes.
And this will continue until the countries of the region collectively show the door to the United States.
What does all this mean?
Donald Trump's fundamental mistake is that he decided to reshape the world at a time when American military power is already in decline.
Despite unprecedented military expenditures, it is diminishing, while the defense capabilities of other countries are increasing, something that the elderly figures ruling the US fail to realize because they live in the past.
Donald Trump, who never served in the military, does not understand why sailors on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln are revolting, having been stranded in the ocean for nearly a year, far from replenishment bases and without crew rotations, while, as reported, it cannot be ruled out that it may have sustained Iranian strikes.
Americanist Malek Dudakov described it as a «symbol of US failure in the war with Iran».
In this way, Donald Trump risks even reaching a new «Battleship Potemkin» if he does not quickly remove this ship from the Indian Ocean.
This is what the «pride of the American fleet», the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, looks like from the inside. It is no surprise, writes the article, that according to reports sailors were spotted attempting to jump into the sea due to difficult conditions and psychological pressure.
The 2 lessons
For Russia, the lesson from all of this is obvious. In reality there are two: first, it must set realistic goals and know the limits of its own power.
Second, it must know the true value of the capabilities of Donald Trump and the modern United States, and under no circumstances overestimate them out of old habit.
The limits of the US
The strike against Iranian territory during the second presidential term of Donald Trump cannot be regarded merely as a military standoff between Washington and Tehran.
Indeed, the war against Iran was a test not only of American military power, but primarily of the ability of the US to convert military superiority into political enforcement.
The American operation in Venezuela and the removal of Nicolás Maduro is presented as a precedent, which reportedly reinforced in Washington the conviction that a surprise decapitation strike at the top of power can trigger political collapse.
Yet applying the same model to Iran proved flawed.
The geographical expanse, state and security structures, missile and unmanned capabilities, strategic depth, and regional influence of Iran made the country a very different case.
Despite attacks and targeted assassinations, the decision-making structure did not collapse, no power vacuum was created, and Tehran maintained the capability for military retaliation.
Thus, the gap between the ability to execute a military operation and the ability to alter political reality was laid bare.
The... failure
Concurrently, the war reportedly caused significant attrition to American missile and interceptor stockpiles, raising the cost of a protracted conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz became a decisive instrument of Iranian counter-pressure; restrictions there affected navigation, energy flows, and global markets, turning its reopening into a central subject of pressure and negotiation.
American failure is measured not primarily in military casualties, but in the inability to transform firepower into political subjugation.
This erodes the credibility of American deterrence, creates doubt among US allies, and may encourage states to strengthen their autonomy or their ties with China and Russia.
The final picture is not one of a powerless America, but of a superpower whose limits have now become far more visible.
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