Although officially Russia maintains that the visit of CIA director John Ratcliffe to Moscow was related to contacts between US and Russian intelligence services and that no meeting took place with Russian President Vladimir Putin, British media are rushing to capitalize on the opportunity to convey an atmosphere of terror, feeding apocalyptic scenarios. Specifically, a report by the Daily Mail states that Ratcliffe, during his surprise visit to Moscow, warned Russia not to escalate the conflict in Ukraine either by using a nuclear weapon or by targeting Kyiv's Western allies. The advice of the CIA chief, according to the British report, was essentially "just don't do it" and was based on US intelligence indicating that Russia is prepared to react immediately and drastically following the stagnation of its campaign on the battlefield.
And while Moscow shares neither the view that its military operation is stagnant nor the terror scenarios, signaling that it is positive that contacts exist between the two sides during these difficult times in bilateral relations, it is recalled that just yesterday, Tuesday, August 25, Russian lawmakers asked the Kremlin to proceed with an Oreshnik missile attack against a European drone manufacturing plant, while it was simultaneously made public that the Russian nuclear submarine Khabarovsk, which carries the Poseidon system, began its sea trials. Presumably, these Russian weapons caused such panic in the West that they triggered all kinds of scenarios and accusations regarding Moscow's intentions toward Western allies.
What Russia says
Officially, Russia, through Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, maintained that the visit of CIA director John Ratcliffe to Moscow was connected to contacts between intelligence services and that he did not meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He also maintained that Russian leader Vladimir Putin was briefed on the outcome of the contacts between Russian intelligence services and CIA director John Ratcliffe. "Of course, President Putin is immediately informed about all of this," stated Peskov. As Peskov noted, contacts between the intelligence services of Russia and the US continue even during the most difficult periods of bilateral relations and constitute a positive process. "Contacts themselves between the special services of Russia and the US are a positive phenomenon, a positive process. These contacts often continue even during the most difficult moments of bilateral relations. After all, this is something our president has spoken about," stated Peskov, who naturally did not disclose what the talks entailed.
Scenarios of terror
However, British media outlets like the Daily Mail rushed to reveal the content of the talks, claiming that the CIA director issued a warning to Russia not to escalate the conflict in Ukraine either by using a nuclear weapon or by carrying out an attack against Kyiv's allies. According to the Daily Mail report, these developments come during a particularly tense period for NATO, as Russian drones repeatedly test the defenses of countries along the alliance's eastern flank. However, other European states are also facing ever-increasing threats.
Threats in Germany
This month alone, Germany faced a series of unexplained drone incidents. The Leipzig-Halle airport, an important NATO military logistics hub and European base for Ukraine's Antonov Airlines, temporarily suspended flights after an armed drone was spotted next to a Ukrainian aircraft. Subsequently, a cargo aircraft collided with a small unidentified object, while the following day drones were detected over a major military base in western Germany.
Seizure of NATO state territory
At the same time, assessments by Western intelligence services are growing increasingly alarming, with US officials fearing that Moscow could attempt to seize NATO territory within a few weeks of making the decision to act. Possible scenarios range from a large-scale cyberattack and the seizure of territory by armed groups to an invasion along NATO's eastern flank. Moscow has already been accused of conducting a "shadow war" across the continent through sabotage, cyberattacks, drones, disinformation, and intimidation—tactics designed to cause disruption while remaining below the threshold that would trigger a military response.
Targeting Britain
The head of British intelligence, Anne Keast-Butler, has warned that the UK and its allies are now in a space between peace and war, with Russian activity extending from the seabed to cyberspace. Security experts warned Prime Minister Andy Burnham to be prepared for a direct response from Vladimir Putin. Sources claimed that the Kremlin might target the United Kingdom, having miscalculated Burnham's level of commitment to Kyiv. Former Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Fedorov stated that he cannot exclude 100% the possibility of some paramilitary action against Britain following Burnham's visit to Kyiv.
Unwavering support for Kyiv
During the visit—Burnham's first abroad since taking over as prime minister—the United Kingdom reiterated its unwavering support for Ukraine, which in turn handed over battlefield intelligence that officials called a goldmine for boosting British security. Fedorov stated that "sooner or later there may be not only a verbal, but perhaps also some visible reaction from Russia toward the United Kingdom." Asked what this could mean, he replied that it could be "some so-called technical reaction, perhaps some attack by hackers of unknown origin," adding that he does not rule out 100% some paramilitary action.
Anxiety in the Baltic
Russian drones are already testing European airspace and the continent's defenses. Western fighter jets have scrambled multiple times in recent weeks to shoot down drones, while Ukraine recently intercepted a drone that had previously entered Romanian airspace. In July, fighter scrambles for interceptions increased by more than 250% compared to a year earlier, as Russia continues to test Western defenses, reports the Daily Mail. The incidents cause particular concern in the Baltic region, where Russia has been repeatedly accused of testing NATO's defensive resolve. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has warned of potential targeted Russian operations against critical infrastructure. "I cannot deny that we possess such intelligence and that it concerns kinetic operations. Not large-scale, but targeted kinetic operations that are very likely to be directed against critical infrastructure," he stated.
Small-scale drone infiltration
Russian opposition politician Garry Kasparov has also warned that Putin may attempt a small-scale infiltration with drones. "I believe the chances are increasing that he will cross NATO borders—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland—with a small invasion using drones," he said. "I think the chances are rising because Putin needs a victory narrative, and Ukraine is not providing it to him." Lithuania's Defense Minister has also warned that Moscow could use captured Ukrainian drones in a false flag operation against critical infrastructure in Baltic states. One potential purpose of the drones could be intimidation, according to Lieutenant Colonel Thilo Geiger, a hybrid warfare researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg. "One of the possible messages or outcomes they want to achieve with this is: don't mess with us," he said. "Take care of your German national interests and stop interfering with your neighbors."
Evidence of sabotage
In recent weeks, Russia has also reportedly launched a new wave of attacks against European defense industries, using local criminals for acts of sabotage, according to Western intelligence sources. The Kremlin is believed to be recruiting gang members to target defense companies in an effort to test NATO resolve. Intelligence officials believe the attacks have been carefully calculated to avoid triggering Article 5, NATO's collective defense clause. Latvia arrested three of its citizens for a suspected arson attack on a drone manufacturer in Estonia. A building belonging to Milrem Robotics, based in Tallinn and a supplier of weapons systems to Ukraine, was set on fire on August 15. In August alone, explosions occurred at major weapons plants in Italy and Bulgaria, while earlier this year four people were arrested after a fire nearly destroyed a factory in the Czech Republic that manufactures drones and thermal optics for Ukraine. Drone threats are also extending to Britain's critical infrastructure. Former Defense Minister Tom Tugendhat, in an article in The Telegraph, argued that urgent improvements in drone defense are needed, as attacks could be launched from unmarked cargo containers on ships in the North Sea or even from a truck in northern France, without the driver knowing what they are carrying, hitting critical national infrastructure. Historian Mark Galeotti, writing in the Daily Mail, also argued that "Russia is acting against us on multiple levels" and that the need for public vigilance "has never been more urgent."
Military confrontation with NATO not ruled out
An extremely dangerous scenario would be for Russia to transition from covert operations to direct military confrontation with NATO. American intelligence estimates indicate that this possibility can no longer be ruled out. Until recently, US intelligence agencies believed that the Kremlin would not risk provoking NATO while simultaneously fighting in Ukraine. However, according to the Wall Street Journal, this assessment shifted this year.
Invasion
One scenario envisions that an armed group could seize NATO territory or that a limited invasion could occur on the alliance's eastern flank. One theory is that Russia might attempt to capture a city or region in Poland or in one of the three Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. The three countries were historically parts of the Russian Empire and feature Russian minorities, which, according to the report, Moscow has exploited in its propaganda. They are also situated between Russia and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, where the Russian Baltic Fleet is based. The Atlantic Council characterizes the Baltic states as high-priority targets for Russian disinformation and subversion, as well as for potential overt aggression.
Last month, Washington warned that the Kremlin might be planning an armed incursions onto Polish soil to test NATO's reaction. Polish security experts also warned that Russia and Belarus could send a small number of troops across NATO borders. As part of such an invasion, power plants could also be targeted, with airstrikes forcing Poland to activate its air defense systems. According to Polish sources cited by Onet, Russia could present a border breach either as a GPS navigation error or as an emergency helicopter recovery operation. Moscow's strategy, according to the report, relies on the assumption that the United States would pressure Poland to negotiate rather than engage militarily.
War scenarios
A land attack could launch either from Kaliningrad, which borders northern Poland, or from Belarus to the east. Finland and Sweden are also considered potential targets of Russian hostile activity following their decision to join NATO, while Norway borders Russia and has strongly supported Ukraine and Western sanctions. There are also fears that Russia could seize a small island in the Baltic Sea to test NATO's political unity and military response. In the Baltic, there are thousands of islands of varying sizes, many located at strategic points near NATO territory and critical maritime routes.
The Svalbard archipelago, a sparsely populated Norwegian territory near the North Pole, could be a target for Russian occupation, as could the Åland Islands, a demilitarized territory under Finnish sovereignty. According to the Atlantic Council, the most likely scenarios of Russian aggression share common traits: they are close to Russian territory, might trigger a weak NATO response, and involve countries with relatively limited defense forces. As a senior officer from a Nordic country stated: "Whatever Putin says he will do, he does."
Huge risk
However, Russia would take an enormous risk if it directly attacked NATO, the Daily Mail argues. The Alliance still possesses vastly greater military resources than Russia, including over three million active personnel, thousands of aircraft, and more than 1,000 naval vessels. The most immediate threat, however, may not be Russian troops crossing NATO borders, but explosions, vandalism, fires, and covert operations carried out inside Europe itself. European intelligence agencies have warned that Russian intelligence and security services are considering hybrid warfare operations that could include infrastructure sabotage and false flag attacks. "The biggest concern right now is a series of sabotage operations," stated former Pentagon official Seth Jones.
191 incidents of sabotage
Since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western officials have linked Moscow to 191 incidents of sabotage, arson, and other destabilizing actions across Europe, according to the Atlantic Council. Documented attacks attributed to Russia nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024. A Financial Times report, cited by the Atlantic Council, stated that teenagers in various European countries are being recruited via messaging apps such as Telegram to carry out acts of sabotage, sometimes for relatively small sums of money. In the past year alone, teenagers from Poland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom were arrested after allegedly being recruited by Russian hackers for espionage and vandalism. Germany is also investigating a suspected Russian intelligence weapons cache discovered in a forest near Berlin. Authorities located two handguns and ammunition following a tip-off. After making the weapons non-functional, they left them in place in the hope that electronic surveillance would identify anyone attempting to retrieve them. Officials from German domestic security agencies have warned of increasingly aggressive tactics by Russian intelligence, which may include targeted attacks against individuals on German soil.
Potential targets
Potential targets are believed to include defense industry executives, opposition figures, and prominent supporters of Ukraine. The warning follows reports that Russian intelligence had planned the assassination of Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, whose company supplies weapons to Ukraine. Earlier this month, German newspaper Die Zeit reported that Russia was planning an attack against Stefan Thumann, head of German drone manufacturer Donaustahl. Across Europe, suspected arson attacks linked to Russia have also targeted commercial and strategic facilities, including an IKEA store in Vilnius and the Marywilska 44 shopping center in Warsaw. In Britain, a factory and warehouse complex belonging to a Ukrainian businessman were set on fire in March 2024. British police reported that the operation's leader had been recruited online and was receiving instructions from individuals linked to the Russian mercenary Wagner Group. European nations are also facing what the Atlantic Council describes as a growing campaign of cyberattacks, disinformation, and other forms of digital destabilization orchestrated by Russia.
Other forms of escalation
A European diplomat stated that while Moscow may not possess enough troops for a direct military attack on a NATO country due to the war in Ukraine, "there is room for other forms of escalation." He added that Putin could use hybrid warfare tactics, as many EU countries are already experiencing continuous cyberattacks and constant disinformation. Russian cyber units have targeted critical systems, including power plants, since at least the mid-2010s, as the Daily Mail points out. On the day Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a cyberattack against the Viasat satellite internet system caused service disruptions in Central and Eastern Europe. The EU, the US, and the UK later attributed the attack to Russia.
Interference
Russia has also been accused of using electronic warfare means to jam civilian communications and navigation systems. Nordic and Baltic countries have reported an increase in GPS jamming and spoofing since 2022, affecting civilian aircraft, ships, and drones. In one instance, Finnish airline Finnair suspended flights to Tartu, Estonia, after passenger aircraft repeatedly lost GPS signals on approach. The jamming has also affected military exercises and civil aviation in northern Norway and Sweden, with signals reportedly originating from the Kola Peninsula, where Russia maintains several military bases. The Kremlin maintains that GPS jamming is a legitimate defensive measure to protect Russian territory from Ukrainian drones. Baltic officials dispute this claim, noting that certain incidents occurred far from Russian borders.
Vulnerable infrastructure
Some of Europe's most vulnerable infrastructure lies not on land, but hundreds of meters below the sea, seemingly beyond the reach of an attack. However, even these structures are not considered immune. In October 2023, the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia suffered a rupture at the same time a data cable was destroyed. Finland termed the incident intentional, although investigators also examined whether a ship's anchor caused the damage. In November 2024, two fiber-optic cables in the Baltic were severed within two days. One connected Finland to Germany and the other Sweden to Lithuania's network. In December of the same year, the Estlink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia was also severed, along with several neighboring telecommunication cables. The repetition of such incidents has raised concern among regional governments, particularly because undersea infrastructure carries vast amounts of energy and communications data to Europe.
Migrants as a weapon
Russia's pressure campaign against Europe extends, according to the Daily Mail article, to the continent's borders as well, where Moscow is accused of increasingly using migration as a weapon, with the assistance of Belarus. The Atlantic Council argues that Moscow has deliberately used migration as part of its broader hybrid warfare campaign. Thousands of migrants have crossed toward Poland's eastern border in recent months, while Putin ally Alexander Lukashenko reportedly plays a significant role in efforts to destabilize the West. Lieutenant Colonel Katarzyna Zdanowicz of the Polish Border Guard told The Telegraph that in 2025 authorities discovered four tunnels beneath the border with Belarus.
As she noted, "Physical and electronic security measures at the border, such as thermal cameras and detection systems, allow us to react immediately to any attempt to breach the state border, even underground." A total of 180 migrants, mostly from Pakistan and Afghanistan, used the tunnel to cross the border, with most being arrested when they emerged at the surface. According to Polish officials, Belarus used Middle Eastern specialists to design the tunnels, who reportedly possessed a high level of expertise.
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