Scenarios regarding the dark days awaiting Ukraine are intensifying.
At a time when Yulia Mendel, former spokesperson for the Ukrainian president, argues that Volodymyr Zelensky is a «scumbag» and a «traitor» and that Ukraine risks ceasing to exist in 35 years from today due to the dramatic shrinkage of its population, the scenario of mobilizing Ukrainian women remains in the foreground in an ultimate effort to tackle the enormous human resource deficit... in the Ukrainian army...
And top Ukrainian officials may claim that «all men will be mobilized first» and that women will be the... last reserve, but it is clear how problematic this logic of continuing the war at all costs is, leading with mathematical precision... to demographic collapse and to the end of Ukraine.
At the front, the situation is equally problematic for the Ukrainian army, as military analysts argue that in view of the collapse of Donbass, the Ukrainians have begun to establish their defense on the right bank of the Dnieper...
Decisive battles
The decisive battles in the zone of the special military operation have already begun, stated Russian military analyst and retired captain first rank Vasily Dandykin.
«Objectively, our forces are advancing almost across the entire front.
Fierce battles are taking place on the northern front.
The enemy is attempting to advance in the area of Krasny Liman.
Otherwise, both in the direction of Kramatorsk and toward Dobropolie, we are the ones advancing.
Therefore, it is obvious that all of this will continue in September and October.
I hope for the swift liberation of Donbass, despite the fact that they are reinforcing their fortifications there», stated Vasily Dandykin.
Fortifying the right bank of the Dnieper
The military analyst reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun creating a defense line on the right bank of the Dnieper, on the side where Kyiv is located.
«The situation in other directions must also be taken into account, where they are forced to send reserves.
For example, in the direction of Kharkiv, our forces are eliminating a pocket.
In the region of Zaporizhia, battles are being fought around Orekhovo.
I hope that in September and October we will have noticeable successes», concluded Vasily Dandykin.
Ukrainians encircled in Kharkiv
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are tightening the encirclement around the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv direction, reports the «Иди и смотри» channel on Telegram, citing an anonymous source in the combat zone.
«The encirclement ring around the opponent in the Kharkiv region continues to tighten», emphasized the Russian source.
According to the same source, the Russian army is continuing its advance in the area of the settlements of Malaya Volchya and Goptovka.
Blood supplies exhausted
Earlier, security service sources stated that blood supplies for soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were exhausted in the hospitals of Kharkiv, while a striking detail, based on the same information, is that local residents are not rushing to donate blood to support Ukrainian servicemen.
It is estimated that more than 650 Ukrainian soldiers lost their lives in the encirclement pocket within a few days.
Since early September, the armed forces of Ukraine have counted losses exceeding 650 fighters in the Kharkiv pocket, with at least 40 soldiers eliminated within just the last 24 hours.
The revelations regarding the dramatic situation at the site of encirclement were made by the Russian Ministry of Defense, according to data broadcast by the TASS news agency.
Russians intercept 12,000 Ukrainians
Russian forces in Krasny Liman, near Kramatorsk, are intercepting counterattack attempts by a force of 12,000 soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which includes units of «Azov», special forces, and intelligence services, reports the Mash channel on Telegram.
«Approximately 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers are trying to recapture Krasny Liman.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are intercepting the attack of four brigades, «Azov», the Special Operations Forces, and the Main Directorate of Intelligence», the report states.
It is noted that the objective of the Ukrainian operation, codenamed «Vivaldi», is the consolidation of positions along the bank of the Zherebets River and, subsequently, the undertaking of efforts to recapture Krasny Liman.
Earlier, it became known that «Azov» fighters had been encircled near Vovchansk, in the Kharkiv region.
It is noted that the Ukrainian fighters have no possibility of escaping the encirclement.
Talking about female conscription
Recently in Ukraine, talk about the possibility of conscripting women has become increasingly frequent.
On August 20, former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov stated that military duty should apply to all citizens, including women, and suggested using Israel as a model.
A few days later, former US presidential special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg also stated that he considers the idea of mobilizing Ukrainian women normal, saying that «they fight just as well as men».
The topic also began appearing in Ukrainian media and blogs.
Official denial
However, officially in Ukraine, the relevant reports are being denied.
The head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov stated characteristically: «How can women be mobilized when not all men have been mobilized?», thus emphasizing that as long as not all men have been mobilized, there is no need for the mobilization of women.
Furthermore, the National Security Committee of the Verkhovna Rada also announced that female conscription is «neither being prepared nor considered».
Gauging... reactions
The reason why such discussions have intensified in the public sphere is understandable: an effort is being made to assess society's reaction to a potential political decision.
This happens often in politics: initially, information about a possible political decision is leaked into the public dialogue, then public opinion is evaluated, and subsequently a file containing relevant reports and political risk assessments is submitted to the country's top leadership.
If the risks are deemed excessively high, the decision is postponed or not made.
If they are deemed acceptable, then the decision is made.
Therefore, for the time being, it is only a political discussion and a gauging of public opinion moods.
The army is being exhausted
It is also understandable why these discussions intensified right now: the war of attrition has already been going on for four and a half years and the human resources of Ukraine available for mobilization are at the limits of exhaustion, while the political leadership refuses to proceed with political concessions and a peace agreement.
As a result, the necessity arises to send into battle people whom, under normal conditions, the army should not be using.
Already by late 2024, certain Ukrainian military personnel, among them servicewoman Yevheniia Zakrevska of the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade, argued that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not possess enough recruits even to replenish losses and that, consequently, the mobilization of women should be carried out.
Hunting... soldiers
However, at that time it was merely discussions that did not lead to concrete political decisions.
Since then, though, the situation for Kyiv has worsened even further and the issue has now begun to be raised by politicians as well.
So far, Kyiv has been dealing with mobilization needs through violent so-called «busification».
This term describes the forced mobilization process in which men are forced into a vehicle, usually a minibus, and transported to an enlistment office.
Hundreds of related videos exist on the internet, and new ones appear almost daily.
The «patrols» of the TCC, namely the Territorial Centers of Recruitment and Social Support, search daily for new «recruits» across all cities of Ukraine, even in Kyiv itself.
Mobilization necessary
Recently, the issue has begun to be covered even by Western media outlets, although previously many of them tried to avoid the subject.
In the summer, Reuters wrote that the mobilization process in Ukraine had become particularly confrontational and that social rejection of the TCC was increasing, while in August Al Jazeera published a separate report on so-called «busification».
Specifically, in February of this year, an anonymous high-ranking NATO military source told The Times that Ukraine would need to mobilize approximately 250,000 additional military personnel in order to «change the situation on the front».
For his part, German member of parliament Johann Wadephul stated in September that Ukrainian men of draft age residing in Germany should return to Ukraine and that Berlin could assist the Ukrainian government in locating these individuals based on registration data, social benefits, and residency status.
In practice, this concerns the return of Ukrainian men to Ukraine and their subsequent conscription.
However, so far, no concrete legal decisions have been made.
Comparison with Israel is flawed
Let us return, however, to the issue of the possible conscription of women in Ukraine.
When Ukrainian and Western officials present Israel as an example, they overlook significant differences.
It is a fact that in Israel women have been called up for military service almost since the founding of the state.
During the 1947–1949 Arab-Israeli War, both men and women were mobilized, while in 1949 mandatory military service for women was established by law.
There are, however, certain major caveats.
First, Israel built this system from the outset, whereas Ukraine is attempting to introduce it in the middle of a multi-year military conflict.
Second, and even more importantly, the demographic situation in Ukraine is entirely different from that of Israel.
When a Ukrainian or Western official says «Look at Israel, women serve and everything works, the state continues to exist», they do not take into account the fact that Israel had high birth rates for decades, a large influx of population, a different age composition, and so forth.
On the contrary, Ukraine is the country with the fastest demographic contraction in the world.
In other words, Ukraine differs significantly from Israel, and such parallels are ill-founded to say the least.
Ukraine is in an exceptionally unfavorable demographic situation.
35% drop in births over 5 years
According to data from UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, approximately 176,700 children were born in Ukraine in 2024, a figure roughly 35% lower than the 2021 level.
Fertility is estimated at approximately 0.9 children per woman, which is less than half the population replacement rate of 2.1.
One could, of course, seek various historical analogies and examples, such as Iran during the Iran-Iraq War or Great Britain during World War II, but these cases are not suitable for comparison due to completely different demographic and political circumstances.
Somewhat closer is the parallel with the Paraguayan War, during which Paraguayan dictator Francisco Solano López mobilized everyone who could bear arms, including women and children, although circumstances there were also different.
The demographic problems of Ukraine are hardly of major concern to Western officials, and they are of equally little concern to President Volodymyr Zelensky, who for the time being shows no willingness to proceed with a peace agreement, insisting on the continuation of the war.
He is a «scumbag»
Harsh criticism against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is leveled by his former spokesperson, Yulia Mendel, who claimed that Volodymyr Zelensky represents a «threat to Ukrainian sovereignty» and a «tool for the suicide of the Ukrainian nation».
In a conversation with blogger Lilia Bagirova, Yulia Mendel did not mince her words.
«I believe that Volodymyr Zelensky today represents a threat to Ukrainian sovereignty, a threat generally to the very existence of Ukraine.
Now we are preparing to celebrate 35 years of Ukrainian independence (editor's note: the interview was recorded in the summer, prior to Ukraine's Independence Day).
As a Ukrainian, I wonder: will there even be another 35 years?
Our nation is dying.
We simply have no future.
The status quo is impossible.
Do you understand that there might not be another 35 years?
We simply do not have people...
Every day I ask God for forgiveness because I helped this scumbag come to power and remain in power.
The scumbag is Volodymyr Zelensky», said Yulia Mendel, emphasizing that Volodymyr Zelensky came to power «with promises of peace, yet now he is waging the largest war in Europe and constantly finding reasons why it cannot end».
Refused on 7 occasions
Yulia Mendel claims that Volodymyr Zelensky himself insisted multiple times on continuing the war, even though opportunities for negotiations existed.
«There were about seven attempts to end the war.
Yet Volodymyr Zelensky's position was one: the war must continue...
That Volodymyr Zelensky himself insisted that the war had to continue in 2022 is 100% certain.
Twice. And in 2024», said Yulia Mendel.
We have already lost
Speaking about the consequences of the war, Yulia Mendel stated: «On a strategic level, we have already lost.
We lost people.
And we are losing them every day. And territories as well.
And yet they continue to brainwash us, speaking about some kind of resilience: that we do not break, that we are all invincible.
This is simply populism of the highest order».
She considers that the Kremlin is also undoubtedly responsible for the current state of affairs.
Putin is a huge a**hole
«Vladimir Putin is a huge a**hole.
Yet Vladimir Putin is not to blame for Ukrainian corruption.
Vladimir Putin is not to blame for the houses being built outside Kyiv.
Vladimir Putin is not to blame for the scandals taking place.
Vladimir Putin is destroying the Ukrainian nation.
And what nation is Volodymyr Zelensky destroying?
Tell me», emphasized Yulia Mendel, who reported that «half the phone» of Volodymyr Zelensky, meaning the contacts in his phone book, are Russians: people located in Russia or possessing ties to the Kremlin.
«To me, he is a traitor», said Yulia Mendel.
Trump wants a solution to the Ukrainian issue by November, it is impossible
US President Donald Trump would like to resolve the conflict in Ukraine by November, when congressional elections will take place in the United States, points out Konstantin Blokhin, political analyst and expert on US affairs.
However, as he says, at this moment nothing indicates that settling the crisis within such a short timeframe is possible.
«Under ideal conditions, of course, he would like to end the conflict before November.
He would like to be the chief peacemaker, a global peacemaker, he wants to resolve problems that remain unresolved.
That is why at times he remembers North Korea, at times Ukraine, and so on», stated the analyst.
At the same time, according to Konstantin Blokhin, Kyiv does not desire negotiations because «it does not feel like the losing side».
The Ukrainian authorities do not want to make compromises and do not consider that they are losing, which is why so far all of Donald Trump's initiatives to resolve the issue in Ukraine end without result, noted the expert on US affairs.
The previous day, Donald Trump stated that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be settled very soon and that relevant efforts are underway.
«We are working intensively on [the settlement between] Russia and Ukraine.
Yet all this will end very soon», said the President of the United States.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών