US-China rivalry: Thucydides Trap explained as Xi cites historical concept

From 5th-century BC Athens and Sparta to the US and China in 2026, a concept from ancient Greek history is once again at the center of global geopolitics. The President of China, Xi Jinping, invoked the so-called «Thucydides Trap» with Donald Trump, putting on the table a historical paradigm used to describe the danger of conflict when a rising power challenges an established dominant one.
It is a phrase that sounds academic, yet it sits at the heart of Beijing’s ambitions for relations between the two nations. And it is not the first time that Xi Jinping has cited this concept... On the contrary... He had articulated the same idea when Donald Trump visited China in May.
The term was popularized by Harvard political science professor Graham Allison in the early 2010s, drawing inspiration from ancient Greek historian Thucydides. His argument was that when a rising power challenges an established power, conflict inevitably follows. Allison’s research identified that this pattern repeated itself multiple times throughout history, and he utilized this framework as a tool to examine the US-China rivalry.
In simple terms, it represents structural tension. China’s rise in economic, technological, and military terms challenges America’s long-standing dominance as a global superpower. Even if neither side seeks confrontation, the competition itself generates pressures that are difficult to manage.

Who was Thucydides?

Thucydides was a Greek historian of the 5th century BC who explained the Peloponnesian War of his era as an inevitable conflict between rising Athens and the already established superpower, Sparta. Graham Allison drew upon this account when coining the term «Thucydides Trap».

Why did Xi invoke the «Thucydides Trap»?

Xi Jinping’s use of this specific concept dates back to at least 2014, according to Zichen Wang, a Beijing-based analyst who has examined the Chinese leader’s previous references to this theoretical framework. Xi Jinping also used the term during his meeting with President Joe Biden in November 2024 on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Peru.
The Chinese leader’s message remains consistent: conflict is not inevitable. Beijing’s stance is that both sides must find a way toward peaceful coexistence, something China frequently characterizes as «mutual respect» and «win-win cooperation».
There is also, however, a strategic dimension. By citing this concept, Beijing elevates Sino-American tensions beyond trade disputes or Taiwan, framing them as something larger: a defining test for how major powers interact.
Concurrently, it reinforces China’s position as an equal superpower alongside the US rather than a subordinate partner. As Xi Jinping asked Donald Trump, can China and the US «create a new model of major-country relations»?
Certain officials in Washington appear more cautious regarding the use of this specific term, with American officials placing greater emphasis on establishing guardrails and managing risk.

Does the «Thucydides Trap» explain other conflicts?

Graham Allison records 16 instances over the past 500 years where rising powers threatened to displace ruling powers, with 12 of them culminating in war.
During the period leading up to World War I, for example, Germany sought to project its military power in Europe and build its own overseas empire, straining relations with the dominant power of that era, Great Britain.
Similarly, the Thirty Years’ War of the 17th century followed growing tensions between emerging Protestant powers, initially a coalition of German and Dutch states, and the established Catholic power, the Holy Roman Empire.
Graham Allison has argued that as China grows stronger, it will threaten to displace American influence, an outcome that could lead to dangerous competition and ultimately armed conflict.

Is the «Trap» inevitable?

No. Major powers can coexist peacefully.
Over the past century, the US surpassed Great Britain as the primary military and political power, and the transition proved relatively smooth.
Following the reunification of Germany in 1990, the country regained substantial influence in Europe without triggering conflict.
Even the Cold War showed that intense rivalry between two superpowers does not necessarily have to escalate into total war, even though the US and the Soviet Union clashed via proxy wars.
Some analysts consider the «Thucydides Trap» an oversimplification of the causes of war and treat its application to understanding relations between the US and China with skepticism.

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