Russia may agree to the transfer of S-400 systems from Turkey to a country that maintains friendly relations with Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated.
«I will not comment on this matter now, but such possibilities exist, only, however, with our consent.
The country to which these S-400 systems may be transferred must be responsible and maintain friendly relations with the Russian Federation, so that we can be certain that these systems will not end up from there elsewhere», he stated, pointing out that this specific parameter is important for Russia, as there are many instances of Europeans «running all over the world», purchasing weapons and handing them over to the Ukrainian regime.
«We are ready to transfer the S-400 to a country that will guarantee that this kind of violation will not be tolerated», Lavrov emphasized.
Pressures
As it therefore appears, the Americans exerted pressure and ultimately achieved their goal, forcing the Turks to abandon the S-400.
Now, both they and we are seeking a compromise.
To which country, then, is it planned to transfer the systems?
And is an option realistic that could preserve the credibility of all parties?
«Russia does not need to save its reputation», says Kamran Gasanov, PhD in Political Science from the University of Salzburg, Assistant Professor in the Department of Theory and History of Journalism of the Faculty of Philology at RUDN University, and expert at the Russian International Affairs Council.
«We sold the S-400. All details are stipulated in the contract.
If someone violates its terms, that casts a shadow on the violator. For Russia, the most important thing is that these specific weapons do not turn against us later.
I do not think the issue concerns the Americans pressing us. They have been pressing us for nearly ten years.
Turkey simply decided that it was preferable to sell the S-400 and acquire the F-35.
The purchase of the S-400 was a political demarche and a means of exerting pressure, not an end in itself.
It is far more advantageous than leaving the S-400 in warehouses and facing sanctions.
Furthermore, the Turks have invested over a billion dollars in fighter jets and do not want to lose this money».
But why do the Russians not take these systems back so that the story ends?
According to Gasanov, «well, theoretically it could be done, but the Turks have paid for the S-400.
From a practical perspective, I think it is virtually impossible to do without the consent of Turkey.
However, any resale without the consent of Russia could lead to legal disputes in which Russia would be entirely in the right».
In order to avoid such an outcome, Ankara and Moscow are attempting to find a compromise.
It appears that the UAE, as a member of BRICS, is considered a friendly country.
However, to be honest, given the strengthening of Congress and the Democrats following the elections of November, the chances of reaching an agreement for the F-35 are minimal.
Consequently, the need to purchase the S-400 for the Gulf War will cease to exist.
No guarantees
On the other hand, there are no guarantees that Russian technologies will not end up in the hands of Washington... while the USA also has similar fears: if they deliver F-35 to Turkey, given that the country already possesses S-400, the American fighter jets could be rendered vulnerable to Russia.
In any case, if the S-400 are resold to the UAE, this risk for Russia will remain and, indeed, increase.
After all, the UAE hosts an American military base and maintains close military cooperation with the USA.
To prevent such a possibility, the Turks would have to include a clause in their contract with the UAE prohibiting access by third countries to these specific systems.
«The statement by Lavrov constitutes a veiled attack on Ankara.
His words regarding Europeans rushing to buy weapons for Ukraine rather suggest a lack of trust toward the government of Erdogan», says military and political expert Vladimir Sapunov.
The agreement fulfilled its purpose, as Russia was interested in Turkey acquiring certain problems in its relations with Washington.
And these problems indeed arose, as, under the CAATSA legislation, the USA excluded Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program and demanded that Ankara «get rid of the Russian systems».
The primary reason why Erdogan is now taking such measures is that, in the view of Ankara, the SVO has clearly dragged on.
Under these conditions, they view returning to the embrace of Washington as a realistic goal, at least regarding weapon systems procurements.
And at that point, both sides had achieved their objectives: on the one hand, 2.5 billion dollars had been paid for these specific systems and, on the other hand, Russia had generated significant friction in relations between Ankara and Washington.
For Erdogan, this specific purchase helped resolve certain tactical internal security issues.
We must not forget that all this occurred following the coup attempt in the summer of 2016. During that period, Erdogan clearly hinted to the USA that they were exerting pressure on Gulen to carry out those actions.
However, the long-term strategy of Turkey proved different.
They realized that full military cooperation with Russia would be impossible.
On the other hand, they do not wish to suffer the enormous losses that sanctions under the CAATSA legislation could inflict on them.
Moreover, we must not forget that, for at least the last three years, there has been constant talk of the fact that the fleet of the Turkish Air Force is extremely aged and cannot be modernized without access to Western technology, especially given the instability in the region.
Let us also not forget that Greece is proceeding with contracts not only for the F-35, but also for the Rafale.
Turkey, naturally, fears that this could lead to a loss of the balance in the air.
In short, the S-400 have become a significant burden for Turkey.
Erdogan, naturally, tries to present the situation in his own way, arguing that the resale of the systems to a third country, with the consent of Moscow, does not constitute submission to the USA, but a strategic agreement that will allow Ankara to regain access to NATO aviation equipment contracts.
At the same time, however, he tries not to worsen relations with the Kremlin, as an uncontrolled sale of any part of the systems could lead to precisely that.
Which are the «friendly countries»?
As Sapunov points out, «it is clear that there must be a benefit for both sides.
These countries must be friendly not only toward Russia, but also toward Turkey.
Otherwise, Ankara, and not Moscow, is the one risking the loss of its prestige. Naturally, the two most likely recipients are the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia».
In reality, even before the statement by Lavrov this year, there were reports that behind-the-scenes talks were underway with him on this specific issue.
The United Arab Emirates maintains close economic ties with both Moscow and Ankara and, given the current situation, has an urgent need to strengthen its air defense.
Saudi Arabia has long shown interest in Russian weapons systems and could also constitute a compromise recipient, given its recent trilateral alliance with Turkey and Pakistan.
However, here arises the Iranian issue.
Iran could pose the question: «Why do you want to sell S-400 to countries that we might strike?»
From this perspective, three additional compromise options emerge, chief among them Pakistan, as Pakistan faces virtually no problems in its relations with Iran.
Thus, it could participate once again in the trilateral alliance recently formed in Mecca.
Less likely, finally, are options such as Qatar and Azerbaijan.
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