Vladimir Salnikov, deputy general director of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, assesses that high revenues from energy exports will constitute a key factor in maintaining the stability of the ruble in the upcoming period.
In statements to Pravda.Ru, the economist explained why, under present economic conditions, there are no grounds for concern regarding a sharp depreciation of the Russian currency.
As he pointed out, key factors influencing the foreign exchange market are currently functioning in favor of the ruble. Crucial significance is held by prices of primary Russian export products, which continue to move at high levels. In parallel, analysts point out that, even under pressure from external factors, the Russian currency has secured unexpected support, contributing to the containment of inflationary risks.
«The reasons that could lead to a weakening of the ruble are for now limited. In recent months, prices of our export products, mainly but not exclusively in the oil and natural gas sector, were maintained at quite high levels. This translates into increased revenues from exports and strengthening of the trade balance, a fact that supports the exchange rate of the ruble», Salnikov noted.
No concern for the ruble
According to him, the most difficult phase for the Russian currency seems to have already passed. Sharp fluctuations were recorded about six months ago, when the market was in a period of turbulence. Since then, the picture has differentiated, with foreign trade indicators reflecting greater stability. This trend is also reflected in official data, as the dollar, euro, and Chinese yuan have retreated noticeably in the recent period, according to new exchange rates announced by the relevant regulatory authority.
Raw material exports continue to constitute a key source of state revenue. Indicatively, Russian fossil fuel exports remained stable in September, directly strengthening foreign exchange inflows into the country. Salnikov considers that the current picture of the trade balance does not justify pessimistic estimates regarding the trajectory of the ruble. In parallel, the resilience of the energy sector is demonstrated by the fact that budget revenues from oil producers in October exceeded analyst expectations.
«Consequently, there is no reason to worry about a sharp decline of the ruble. Signs of weakening had appeared about six months ago, while indeed a period of currency retreat was recorded during this year. However, foreign trade remains strong and I do not expect significant weakening of the ruble in the immediate future», the economist underlined.
Additional support is offered, according to the same analysis, by the expansion of transit routes for energy products. Specifically, Russia has found a way to increase natural gas deliveries to China beyond agreed limits, creating more favorable prospects for the long-term stability of the balance of payments and, by extension, the exchange rate of the ruble.
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