While Donald Trump may argue that the war in Iran will soon end and threaten that a sweeping attack against Iranian energy and nuclear infrastructure is imminent, either before or after the midterm elections of November 3, Tehran remains undeterred.
The claims of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the regime will be overthrown are rather treated with indifference by Iranian officials.
The more than eight months since the beginning of a war that was supposed to last 3 to 4 days demonstrate how resilient the Iranian regime is and how erroneous the calculations of the Americans and Israelis were...
Facing these threats, the Iranians send their own message, warning that in the event they are attacked, they will not merely defend themselves as they have done until recently, but will transition to an unprecedented counterattack, unleashing hell across the entire Persian Gulf region and beyond, targeting American bases as well as the territories of neighboring Arab states that assist the Americans...
And in a demonstration of military might, they claim to have managed to keep American warships at a distance of 700 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz...
Unprecedented ultimatum for invasion
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran states that new attacks by the United States could lead Tehran to invade neighboring countries and strike bases used for American military operations, as part of its new «offensive» strategy.
Wednesday's warning was issued amid an escalation of attacks against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a pivotal passage for global energy supplies, and uncertainty regarding diplomatic efforts to end the war that has lasted almost eight months.
Going on the offensive
«Our military doctrine was previously defensive.
We used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond.
Now we say that if a country attacks us, not only will we respond, but we will also launch an offensive», stated Revolutionary Guards spokesperson Hossein Mohebi.
Washington ordered the departure of part of its diplomatic personnel from Saudi Arabia, amid attacks by the Houthis of Yemen, while American President Donald Trump has hinted that a decision regarding the conflict may soon be taken.
According to reports, the US and Israel are planning potential strikes against Iran in the coming weeks.
As negotiations appear to have reached an impasse and the two sides exchange threats, is the region heading toward a new military escalation?
What is Iran's new doctrine
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a transition to an «offensive and asymmetric» defense doctrine, threatening to invade countries that launch attacks against Iran.
Mohebi stated that Tehran will no longer limit its military operations to retaliation.
He also underlined that the missile stockpile of Iran has increased 1.5 times compared to the period of the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025.
He did not provide, however, specific numerical figures.
«The quality of missiles has improved significantly, while their range, destructive power, and precision in striking targets have increased», the spokesperson stated.
Furthermore, Mohebi mentioned that Iranian forces are «in the preparation stage for presenting the "mother of all bombs"», as he termed it.
«This is something new for the enemy», he added.
Hell in the Strait of Hormuz
Meanwhile, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue with unabated intensity.
The Navy of the Revolutionary Guards announced on Thursday that four vessels, which it accused of involvement in illicit petroleum transfers, were struck and engulfed in flames in the northern Persian Gulf.
It added that three other vessels struck mines west of the Strait.
Before the war, one fifth of global petroleum and natural gas supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Although shipments through the Strait remain below pre-war levels, crude exports from the region returned last month to levels prevailing prior to the war, as exporters found alternative ways of transporting petroleum and natural gas, including through pipelines.
However, the recent wave of attacks on the strategic maritime route, as well as clashes between the Houthis of Yemen and the internationally recognized government of the country, backed by Saudi Arabia, have led to fresh attacks by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia and a surge in oil prices.
The price of Brent crude oil surpassed 110 dollars per barrel on Thursday, amid fears of further disruptions to regional energy supplies.
Why is Iran shifting strategy?
According to analysts, the pivot of Iran toward an offensive military doctrine reflects Tehran's determination to render any future American-Israeli strikes significantly costlier for the attackers.
Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Tehran is drawing lessons from the wars of 2025 and 2026, as the previous strategy of retaliation failed to deter repeated attacks.
«Tehran now wants to establish a new equation: any future attack against Iran will carry a far higher cost for the attackers», she told Al Jazeera.
As it cannot compete with the conventional military capabilities of the US, Iran relies increasingly on asymmetric warfare, utilizing missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and the ability to apply pressure through the Strait of Hormuz, explained Mortazavi.
According to her, Tehran is pursuing a broader strategy aimed at imposing military, economic, and political costs on Washington, with the potential goal even of influencing the midterm elections of November 3 in the US.
They want to teach them a lesson
«Iran wants to teach Washington a lesson: an attack against Iran carries a heavy price tag, which can even cost elections», stated Mortazavi, referring to American opinion polls forecasting electoral losses for Trump's Republican Party.
She added that Iranian officials are closely monitoring the elections, assessing that the economic repercussions of the war could damage Republican chances of retaining control of Congress.
«The long-term goal is to establish a deterrent force, so that future American administrations think twice before daring to attack Iran again», she stated.
Political analyst Rami Khouri argued that the new doctrine also aims to ensure that the fallout of attacks extends to the US, Israel, and regional countries that support their military operations.
«This is part of the strategy: pain and devastation must be equivalent and mutual», Khouri, non-resident senior fellow at the Arab Center, told Al Jazeera.
Challenging Western hegemony
Khouri argued that Tehran also seeks to challenge what it views as long-standing Western domination in the region.
«The Iranians are in fact trying to bring an end to the colonial era», he stated.
He added that the strategy of Iran could extend the economic consequences of the conflict far beyond the Middle East, affecting energy supplies, transport, insurance costs, and shipments of essential goods.
«The consequences will reach far beyond the Middle East, Israel, and the US, and will hit people in other parts of the world», stated Khouri.
What Trump says
Trump has sent conflicting signals regarding Washington's next steps.
On Wednesday he stated that the US is no longer negotiating with Tehran, hinting that developments are imminent.
«One way or another, something will happen pretty soon», he told reporters.
He also asserted that Washington could end the war immediately, but desires a lasting solution.
«It will end very soon.
We could walk away now, but we want to make sure the solution lasts for a long time», stated Trump at a campaign rally in South Carolina.
Trump had previously pledged not to attack Iran before the elections of November 3.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated this week that reaching a peace agreement is exceptionally difficult and insisted that Iran must stop targeting merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
What is happening with uranium enrichment?
In recent weeks, uranium enrichment by Iran has re-emerged as a point of contention.
Rubio has repeatedly emphasized that Washington will reject any agreement allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons, which require highly enriched uranium.
«The United States will not support any agreement that creates a pathway through which Iran could someday acquire a nuclear weapon», he stated on Wednesday.
Tehran insists that its right to uranium enrichment is enshrined in the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Iran has proposed a seven-day plan for the restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for an end to the American blockade of Iranian ports, the easing of sanctions, and the unfreezing of blocked Iranian assets.
Americans withdraw hastily
Meanwhile, the US Department of State ordered on Wednesday the departure of non-essential personnel and their families from Saudi Arabia, following recent attacks by the Houthis.
The American embassy in Riyadh warned of the possibility of fresh attacks, while American officials told the Reuters news agency that family members of diplomatic personnel may also be evacuated from other American missions in the Gulf.
State Department spokesperson Tommy Piggott clarified that departure orders have not been issued for personnel of diplomatic missions across the entire Gulf region.
As he noted, existing orders concern «only employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia».
We will overthrow them
The Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, reiterated on Sunday his commitment to overthrow the government of Iran, maintaining that this is decisive in preventing the reconstitution of its nuclear program and the «axis of resistance».
His statements further reinforced estimates of a potential escalation.
Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister of Israel, is concurrently fighting a difficult electoral battle to remain in power in the elections of next Tuesday, October 27.
Is a new war imminent?
Analysts warn that the prospect of new American-Israeli attacks against Iran is becoming increasingly likely, as both sides prepare for a new showdown, despite the fact that room for a diplomatic solution still exists.
«It looks like a new round of war is approaching», stated Mortazavi.
«Both sides appear to be preparing for a reignition of the conflict, while escalating tension in the Strait of Hormuz increases the risk of a wider conflagration», she added.
Mortazavi pointed out that elections taking place over the next two weeks in the US and Israel could influence the timing of military operations.
She warned, however, that the current trajectory of developments seems to favor escalation rather than negotiations.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, stated: «Everyone must know that any action against Iran carries a cost».
«If diplomacy can lead to this understanding, we prefer the diplomatic path.
If, however, the war continues, Iran possesses the necessary means to sustain its response», stated Rezaei, according to the Iranian news agency IRNA.
Negotiating tactic
Agreeing with Mortazavi, Khouri warned that a new showdown may be approaching, although he noted that American threats could still form part of a negotiating strategy.
«I believe the prospect of an imminent conflict is real, but I do not know if war is the right term to describe it», Khouri told Al Jazeera.
As he estimated, new strikes could target critical infrastructure of Iran, such as power grids, transportation systems, bridges, and basic services.
«We will probably see heavy attacks against certain targets, intended to make daily life in Iran exceptionally difficult», he reported.
Khouri warned, however, that it remains uncertain whether Iran can withstand a new large-scale military offensive while concurrently inflicting commensurate damage on its adversaries.
«It is not clear whether Iran has the capability to endure new, large-scale attacks against it», he stated, underlining at the same time that Tehran is unlikely to capitulate under military pressure.
Ali Azmaei (IRGC Navy Commander): The Americans are at a distance of 700 km from Hormuz
«The Strait of Hormuz was once under the control of powers such as Britain, the United States, and Portugal.
Today, however, the Americans have no presence in the Persian Gulf.
They have moved away to a distance of 600 to 700 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz and their warships no longer appear in the area.
America no longer has a place in the Strait of Hormuz», asserted Ali Azmaei, commander of the Revolutionary Guards Navy.
Warning from Mojtaba Khamenei
Mojtaba Khamenei is exercising his leadership duties and is in good health, claims the representative of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Abdollah Haji Sadeghi.
Abdollah Haji Sadeghi stated that Mojtaba Khamenei is performing his leadership duties normally and is in good health, despite the fact that he has not made public appearances due to the war.
He also warned that Iran will deliver an unprecedented blow to its enemy, should the latter engage in any new aggressive action.
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