An exceptionally dangerous scenario for the security of Europe is brought to the forefront by France's warning to Germany regarding the use of missiles against Russia. Specifically, France fears that a conventional strike on Russian territory could be misinterpreted by Moscow as an attack that opens the way for escalation, triggering a response with unpredictable consequences.
Pressure on Germany
More specifically, France is pressuring Germany to clarify the way in which it will use long-range missiles in the event of a conflict with Russia, warning that the absence of a clear plan may accidentally lead Europe into a nuclear war. According to information from the Financial Times, Paris is in talks with German officials, seeking to align German doctrine regarding the use of weapons capable of carrying out so-called Deep Precision Strikes (DPS) with French nuclear strategy. A French official warned that an attack against a Russian target could be carried out with a conventional weapon, but the response could be nuclear. "If the Russians do not receive the message correctly, we may reach the nuclear threshold without even realizing it," he added. France's concerns manifest at a time when Germany, along with a group of other countries including the United Kingdom, Poland, and Nordic and Baltic nations, is significantly strengthening its arsenal with long-range weapons in an effort to reinforce European deterrence against Moscow.
Germany's armament
Berlin is acquiring and deploying a series of ground-launched missiles with ranges from 500 to more than 2,000 kilometers, which will allow the German armed forces to strike targets deep inside Russian territory. This development constitutes part of Germany's efforts to assume a leading role in the European rearmament effort, in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the uncertainty caused by the stance of US President Donald Trump regarding American security commitments to the European continent. However, the effort to acquire long-range weapons has raised questions regarding when and in what manner they will be used, as well as the kind of response they could trigger from the Kremlin.
France's talks on nuclear doctrine
France is conducting talks on its nuclear doctrine with several European countries following President Emmanuel Macron's announcement in March that he would open the discussion on how the French nuclear program could protect them. However, Paris focuses particularly on Germany, due to its large defense budget, which amounts to 780 billion euros for the five-year period through the end of 2030, as well as its ambitious rearmament plans. French officials worry that Macron's idea of "advanced deterrence" may lead Moscow to consider Paris responsible for attacks carried out by its allies. "If you invite someone to your house, you are responsible if they set it on fire," stated an official familiar with the relevant discussions.
Risk of a wrong message to Russia
As a nuclear power, France has developed a "nuclear grammar and vocabulary," as one of the officials noted, describing unwritten rules of engagement. "There are practices we have formed over time. The Germans do not possess this experience," he noted. "It would be much better to have a clear and sufficiently public doctrine, so that the Russians never receive the wrong message or misinterpret our intentions." A senior German official stated that Berlin "could not agree more" with the need for European capitals to form "a common doctrine and a common understanding of the scale of escalation." As he noted, Germany itself was the one that initiated the discussion three years ago on the need to strengthen conventional deterrence against Moscow.
"This is not something the French are asking for and we are resisting," he added. "Acquiring these capabilities for deep precision strikes necessarily had to be accompanied by a shared understanding of how to deploy and use them. That was clear from the start." The German official noted that formal talks had been delayed due to internal debate in France over the future of its own nuclear strategy, but are now gaining greater momentum. A likely outcome could be a joint statement by Germany, France, and Britain that would attempt to define their common approach, although, as he clarified, such a step is still quite some way off.
Britain downplays concerns
A senior British official also attempted to downplay French concerns. "Germany's strategic culture is evolving rapidly, and we fully believe we must embrace this change rather than cling to past stereotypes," he stated. The United Kingdom, the only other nuclear power among European NATO members, is conducting similar discussions with Germany as part of the two countries' plans to jointly develop weapons with ranges exceeding 2,000 kilometers, based on a bilateral defense agreement signed in 2024. The two countries are also discussing the possibility of France participating in this specific program, as the British official noted. He warned that there is often "confusion" surrounding the term "deep precision strike."
The primary goal of such attacks is the weakening of the opponent's "warfighting capability" through the destruction of facilities such as command and control centers, logistical support hubs, ammunition depots, or arms factories, rather than government buildings or nuclear installations. "All of us are aware of the need not to trigger escalation to a nuclear level," the British official stated. German political and military leaders seek to present their plans for acquiring a series of new military capabilities, such as satellite reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering systems, as European assets rather than exclusively German assets. Ingo Gerhartz, a German general heading the NATO command responsible for the defense of central Europe and its eastern flank, stated that the same should apply to deep precision strikes. "Many of the frontline countries now possess the capability to carry out deep precision strikes," Gerhartz stated last week at the Berlin Security Conference.
However, he warned that such decisions must always be taken in consultation with other NATO allies."Whatever an individual country does against Russia, the Russians will always attribute it to NATO as a whole," he characteristically noted. Gerhartz underlined that the capability to carry out deep precision strikes is a military capability that "must be integrated into the overall framework of Alliance policy." Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst, stated that it is critical for Berlin to define "target selection priorities, escalation management, and approval procedures," so that these specific capabilities have real deterrent power while simultaneously reducing the risk of misunderstandings. "My main concern relates to the German political leadership. I do not believe it truly understands how the Bundeswehr plans to fight the Russians or how critical it is to strike targets deep inside Russia if the plan of the Bundeswehr and NATO to defeat the Russian army is to be implemented in practice," he stated. "This must be discussed in much greater detail, perhaps not publicly, but certainly between political and military leaderships."
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