The world is once again watching developments with bated breath.
Statements, threats, contradictory messages and an electrified atmosphere in which a single mistake could trigger an irreversible chain reaction. At the center, Iran.
And opposite it, not merely the United States, but the personal psychology of a man who has proven that he turns international politics into a stage for personal dominance.
Donald Trump does not approach the crisis as a classic geopolitical equation, but as a test of power, image and supremacy.
In his latest statements he claims that he is negotiating with Iran.
Yet no one can be sure.
He was negotiating with Maduro as well, and a few hours later he abducted him.
Every word, every hint of a “decisive strike”, every “all options are on the table”, acts like a pulse on a planet that remembers all too well how quickly fantasies of power can turn into real ruins.
The question is no longer whether tension exists.
The question is who is holding the wheel, and whether the one holding it truly understands what war means.
The psychology of power, a high stakes game by Trump
The prospect of a devastating strike against Iran is not shaped by strategic analysis or geopolitical realism, but ends up, as so often in our era, depending on the psychology of Donald Trump and his constant need to dominate everyone’s attention.
Trump knows very well that no matter how irrational and maximalist his threats may appear, they usually end up reinforcing his image as a strongman.
His entire political career has been built on this basic assumption, his base adores the “tough guy”, and every sign of weakness cracks the edifice of power.
So far, this model has worked for him.
European elites, however, struggle to embrace this logic and often sink into paroxysms of indignation.
Yet, as analyst Michael Wolff has aptly noted, the real key lies elsewhere, after days or weeks of Trump threatening that something will happen “the easy way or the hard way”, there comes the moment when he must retreat from his maximalist positions, while simultaneously presenting the retreat as a triumph of the famed “Art of the Deal”.
The result? He claims that he achieved exactly what he intended from the beginning.
Khamenei’s response, regional war and terror in Israel
Against this tactic, Iran responds with blunt clarity.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, replying to Trump’s warlike ultimatum, warns that if the United States attacks, the conflict will turn into a regional war.
This is the most direct and harsh threat ever articulated by the 86 year old leader.
Tehran makes it clear that in the event of an attack it will target Israel and American military assets in the Middle East.
Despite this, Trump appears to claim that Iran is “talking seriously” with Washington, while at the same time once again adopting an ultra maximalist tone, accept my terms or prepare for a comprehensive campaign to dismantle your political system.
These threats have triggered waves of anxiety throughout the region.
Even the leadership of Israel, with Netanyahu at the forefront, fears a prolonged and bloody conflict with unpredictable consequences.
Intelligence assessments indicate that the Iranian regime is not on the verge of collapse.
On the contrary, an external attack could act as a rallying force, nullifying any internal pressure.
History, after all, is unforgiving, no resilient regime has collapsed solely from external bombardment.
IDF on burning coals
Meanwhile, the Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, held a series of discussions over the weekend of 31 January to 1 February with American officials, according to the Times of Israel.
Israel is on high alert and has carried out preparations in recent weeks after Trump threatened military action against Iran, citing the killing of protesters by the regime.
The United States has also moved military assets to the Middle East, strengthening available firepower and defensive capabilities in the region.
Last week, Zamir met with the Commander of U.S. Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, in Israel, as part of efforts between the militaries to coordinate ahead of a possible American strike on Iran.
Israel is seeking to receive adequate warning from the United States before any potential strikes on Iran so that it can prepare defensively and inform the Israeli public.
The Venezuela fantasy
Trump’s perception of war rests on a dangerous fantasy, a short, lightning strike with no American losses and no damage to U.S. military infrastructure.
According to people in his inner circle, Trump continues to speak of a “guaranteed”, short and decisive victory.
Yet, as Colonel Larry Wilkerson explains, the term “decisive” has a clear military meaning, you hit the opponent so hard that they cannot respond.
In other words, Trump appears to be dreaming of a media spectacle strike of the Maduro type.
Only Iran is not Venezuela.
The attempt to destabilize Iran internally through externally supported unrest failed spectacularly.
The image of a state collapsing under the pressure of violence proved to be a myth.
Military reality shatters the narrative
Despite rhetoric about massive force deployments, military analyst Will Schryver completely dismantles the narrative of a “decisive strike”.
According to him, neither the forces that have been moved nor the available assets come anywhere near the concept of a truly decisive attack against a vast and well prepared state like Iran.
Even hundreds of Tomahawks or a few strategic bomber missions are insufficient to disarm Iran or overthrow its leadership.
And, as Schryver notes, such a war cannot be hidden or rebranded as a success if it goes wrong.
Iran prepares, it does not wait for miracles
Inside Iran, as Ibrahim Al-Amine notes, the leadership is preparing for the worst case scenario, strengthening defensive capabilities and tightening internal security.
The country now operates under the assumption that the conflict could reach the extreme.
At the same time, even in Israel second thoughts are emerging.
Ronan Bergman records assessments by Israeli services that protests in Iran have subsided and that the regime is not in immediate danger.
The critical question now is whether there was ever real momentum, or whether Trump simply believed in an illusion.
Trump does not want a chaotic war front
With Trump’s domestic disapproval rating in the United States reaching 47%, a chaotic war front is the last thing he needs.
He prefers short, “clean” victories that play well to a domestic audience.
The question therefore remains, will he retreat through negotiations, or will he continue chasing a nonexistent sweeping yet short victory in Iran.
The only certainty is that this time, the reality of war appears determined to crush the illusion of power.
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