In energy, pipelines do not carry only gas or oil. They carry money, influence, and geopolitical power. And when billions are at stake, competition is not confined to tariffs and infrastructure. It passes through diplomatic offices and, at times, the deep state. At the center stands the Greek Vertical Corridor, Athens' ambition to become the gateway for American natural gas heading toward the Balkans, Eastern Europe, and Ukraine, alongside Turkish competition via state-owned BOTAŞ. Behind both routes? The most powerful American and international energy groups. Somewhere here in the equation enters Kimberly Guilfoyle, playing a role in promoting American energy interests in Greece. The critical question therefore is: who wins if the Greek corridor loses ground and the Turkish route gains a larger share in moving American LNG? "Cui bono?", as the Roman judge Lucius Cassius used to ask?
BOTAŞ and the American energy giants
As is well known, Turkey does not limit itself to the role of natural gas consumer. It seeks to reinforce its position as an energy hub by capitalizing on LNG infrastructure, interconnections, and geographical location. Turkey's BOTAŞ stands at the core of this strategy, concluding deals and commercial partnerships with major players in the global market. More specifically, ExxonMobil, one of the most powerful US energy groups, has developed a partnership with BOTAŞ for LNG supply. The terms described within the relevant commercial framework refer to quantities reaching up to 2.5 million tons annually, corresponding to roughly 3.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Appearing in the same equation is Mercuria Energy Group, an international trading house with a strong presence in the American LNG market.
The long-term agreement described for the 2026–2045 period envisions substantial volumes of American natural gas heading to Turkey. Insofar as predicted quantities and delivery terms are confirmed by contractual texts, this represents a partnership capable of influencing commercial flows toward the Balkans. Joining the game is Australia's Woodside Energy, featuring the American Louisiana LNG project, alongside international energy giants such as Shell and TotalEnergies, which maintain portfolios of American LNG and operate across global markets. The picture is clear regarding strategy: Turkey wants to secure long-term supplies, leverage its infrastructure, and claim a larger role in distributing natural gas to Europe. A essential clarification is needed, however: the existence of commercial relationships and LNG agreements is one thing; confirming that specific volumes will indeed be routed to third countries via specific paths is quite another.
Two corridors, one major competition
The Greek Vertical Corridor aspires to connect Greece's LNG import infrastructure with markets across Southeastern and Eastern Europe. Revithoussa, the Alexandroupoli LNG terminal, and the Greece–Bulgaria IGB pipeline represent core elements of this effort. Athens' strategy is to capitalize on the country's geographical position and infrastructure so that American LNG reaches Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, and, under appropriate conditions and interconnections, Ukraine via Greece. Positioned opposite is the Turkish route, backed by the neighboring country's LNG infrastructure, pipeline network, and BOTAŞ commercial agreements.
Turkey seeks to strengthen its position in regional markets, while the capacity for gas redistribution creates commercial opportunities. Competition does not mean the two routes represent absolute alternatives in every instance. Pipelines, available capacities, pricing, transit fees, and contractual obligations dictate which route proves commercially more attractive for each cargo. However, the fundamental conflict of interests is real: whoever controls the infrastructure and secures commercial flows gains a stronger position in negotiating with suppliers and consumers. And that position carries economic and political value.
What really happened?
In this instance, it is worth asking what really happened without having to resort to unconfirmed theories. Companies trading American LNG seek to maintain as many options as possible for selling their cargoes. The existence of multiple routes to Europe enhances their flexibility and generates competition. For suppliers, Greece is not necessarily the sole gateway to Europe. For Turkey, similarly, claiming a larger role in transit and gas trading forms part of a broader strategy. Therefore, it is reasonable that differing approaches and competitive pursuits exist among business circles active in the LNG market. The stakes are high: if the Vertical Corridor fails to secure stable commercial flows, competitive tariffs, and sufficient capacity, the Greek ambition for a powerful energy hub may prove less lucrative than Athens anticipates.
Conversely, if Greek infrastructure offers reliable and competitive access to regional markets, the country can strengthen its standing regardless of Turkish activity. Consequently, diplomatic circles holding interests in the Turkish energy route could view a strong Greek presence in handling American LNG negatively. These circles may have arranged for the publication of damaging SMS messages alleging financial improprieties involving Guilfoyle, using the Wall Street Journal as a battering ram. Of course, substantiating such a link would require specific evidence proving who leaked the information, with what motives, and whether any coordination took place with business or diplomatic actors operating in Turkey.
What remains certain is that the energy game in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Balkans is far more complex than a simple Athens–Ankara confrontation. American corporations, international trading houses, infrastructure operators, and governments maintain differing priorities that sometimes coincide and at other times clash. And perhaps in the future there will be other Guilfoyles—on both sides... Et tu, Tom?
Chevalier Noir www.bankingnews.gr
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