Today we will focus on certain issues that do not concern the current phase but rather the future. Of course, we will also refer to a letter from the past by the late Andreas Vgenopoulos regarding the Swiss Franc, in which he attacked the then Deputy CEO of the former Eurobank Ergasias—now Eurobank—Byron Ballis.
National Bank of Greece absorbs Credia Bank
No, today there is no contact, no scenario, no negotiation; but we will focus on the future. The distant, not the near future. National Bank of Greece currently has a market capitalization of 12 billion euros, while Credia Bank stands at 2.65 billion euros. Thrivest, owned by Bakos, Kaymenakis, and Exarchou, holds 54.6% of Credia Bank.
A future absorption of Credia Bank by National Bank would skyrocket the group to 90 to 95 billion euros in assets. This could allow Pavlos Mylonas, should he have another three-year term, to initiate a succession process for which Vassilis Karamouzis and Eleni Vrettou, the CEO of Credia Bank, would compete.
However, there is a compelling investment logic behind this scenario. National Bank along with Credia at current values would have a market capitalization of 14.6 billion euros. Thrivest (Bakos, Kaymenakis, Exarchou) would control 14% of National Bank, thus becoming the largest or primary shareholder alongside the Greek State, which maintains positions in both National Bank and Credia Bank.
The 14% of National Bank of Greece combined with Credia Bank is valued at 2 billion euros. Obviously, by the time this scenario is implemented in the future—if it is implemented—the value of Thrivest's assets could have reached 2.5 to 3 billion euros from the banking sector alone.
National Bank will take 20% to 30% of NN Hellas for a specific purpose
We have referred to the looming deal between National Bank and NN Hellas many times in the past. National Bank will acquire 20% to 30% of NN Hellas, but there is also an interesting issue at hand. If Piraeus Bank wants to enter National Bank's territory—for example, targeting its customers through Ethniki Asfalistiki—National Bank will reciprocate through NN Hellas, which has many Piraeus Bank customers. Therefore, NN Hellas can function as a deterrence mechanism for National Bank.
Metlen takes 10.34% of PPC
We have written in the past that Metlen could, under certain conditions, acquire 10.34% of PPC (Public Power Corporation). Included among current holdings is a 10.34% stake in PPC via Selath Holding, which is controlled by CVC.
Today, the 10.34% stake in PPC, which has a total market capitalization of 6.65 billion euros, is valued at 688 million euros (38.18 million shares corresponding to 10.34% x 18 euros per share). Currently, PPC is valued at 18 euros per share. It appears that if the 10.34% is eventually sold—with the government's blessing—the sale price could reach 20 euros, while the market target price for PPC is estimated at 24 euros.
Among the candidates for PPC's 10.34% is Metlen, owned by businessman Evangelos Mytilineos. There are other interested parties, such as Helleniq Energy—and not Motor Oil due to relations with the Government—and certainly foreign funds are interested.
PPC has very serious investment plans that are not to be revealed at present; however, some of them inspire confidence that the PPC stock will soar. Indeed, certain alliances and plans are very strong, showing that Stassis, the head of the PPC group, has an aggressive action plan. If PPC, with a market value of 6.65 billion, and Metlen, with 5.9 billion, establish a shareholding relationship, the game could change radically in terms of valuations. In PPC, the main shareholder is the Greek State with 35.30%, while it also holds 5.5% in treasury shares.
The Vgenopoulos letter to Ballis of Eurobank
The late Andreas Vgenopoulos, then head of the MIG Group and Marfin Popular Bank (which no longer exists), had sent a letter to Byron Ballis, then Deputy CEO of Eurobank Ergasias.
The content of the letter, likely from 2008 or 2009, focused on Swiss Franc loans, which at the time numbered approximately 50,000. Vgenopoulos characterized Eurobank's stance as unacceptable for taking such risks and not proposing solutions.
In our opinion, the government involved itself—wrongly—in the Swiss Franc loan issue, as it is a purely banking matter that Eurobank and Piraeus should have resolved long ago. The conversion into euros and the haircut of 15% to 50% should not have been a government intervention but a purely banking solution, proving the lack of maturity in the banking system.
www.bankingnews.gr
Σχόλια αναγνωστών