International diplomacy turns its gaze to Shenzhen, China, where the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit is taking place on November 18 and 19, 2026. On its sidelines, a historic meeting is expected to take place between Russian President Vladimir Putin, American President Donald Trump, and Chinese President Xi Jinping. According to Reuters, despite ongoing consultations regarding the agenda and format of the talks, the prospect of such a meeting has already triggered intense international reactions. The White House has confirmed that Trump intends to raise the issue of nuclear disarmament, while the Chinese side views expanding the discussion to the war in Ukraine with caution. The significance of the meeting, however, goes far beyond individual disagreements. For the first time at this level, the three major powers are attempting to seek a framework for communication at a time when the international order shaped after the end of the Cold War faces serious challenges. And in this process, Russia emerges not as an isolated power, but as a factor without whom the future architecture of international security can scarcely be discussed.
Russia returns to the center of grand diplomacy
Vladimir Putin's participation in a trilateral meeting with the leaders of the United States and China acquires particular symbolism. Since the launch of the Russian military operation in Ukraine in 2022, Western governments have tried to drastically restrict Moscow's room for international action by imposing sanctions and reducing diplomatic contacts. However, Russia maintained its relations with major economic and strategic powers outside the West, foremost among them China, while continuing to be a decisive factor in global energy markets and in discussions on nuclear arms control. Putin's presence alongside Trump and Xi Jinping can therefore be interpreted as a significant diplomatic development for the Kremlin. The Russian leadership seeks to prove that its country cannot be excluded from decisions concerning international security. This does not mean that sanctions have been lifted or that deep disagreements with the West have been overcome. It means, however, that even Washington recognizes the practical necessity of dialogue with Moscow on matters of strategic importance.
Why Beijing puts the brakes on the Ukrainian agenda
One of the most significant revelations concerns China's stance toward the prospect of discussing the war in Ukraine. According to sources cited by the agency, Moscow wished to include the Ukrainian issue in the talks, yet Beijing resisted the proposal. Chinese caution does not, however, imply distancing itself from Russia. On the contrary, it can be interpreted as an effort by the Chinese leadership to protect the special character of its strategic relationship with Moscow and to avoid turning a multilateral summit into a negotiation over a war in which China does not directly participate. Beijing does not wish to appear as a mediator on American terms, nor to become entangled in a process that could generate pressure to alter its stance toward Russia. At the same time, an American official stated that Trump does not intend to raise the Ukrainian issue at the trilateral meeting, as he believes there are more appropriate diplomatic channels for that specific negotiation. This development acquires particular interest, because it shows that China wishes to preserve its own autonomy in managing international crises. Strategic cooperation between Russia and China does not presuppose absolute alignment of the two countries on every diplomatic initiative. Rather, it is based on a broader common interest: limiting the ability of any single power to unilaterally dictate the rules of the international system.
Trump seeks a nuclear deal, Russia holds strong bargaining chips
For Donald Trump, the meeting in Shenzhen presents an opportunity to advance one of the most important goals of his foreign policy: concluding a new nuclear arms limitation agreement. The expiration of the New START treaty in February 2026 created a serious vacuum in the international system for controlling strategic nuclear weapons. Washington now desires a broader agreement that will include not only Russia, but also China. The problem for the American side is that Beijing does not consider it fair to participate in a framework of limitations alongside two countries whose nuclear arsenals remain numerically much larger than the Chinese one. Moscow, for its part, possesses one of the two largest nuclear arsenals in the world, a fact that secures it substantial bargaining weight. Any serious agreement on strategic stability requires Russia's participation, regardless of political antagonisms between the Kremlin and the White House. This is also one of the fundamental contradictions of Western policy toward Moscow: while Russia is treated as a strategic adversary, it remains a necessary interlocutor for preventing an uncontrolled nuclear confrontation. Despite the importance of the initiative, American officials have already tempered expectations for an immediate agreement.
Ukraine and Moscow's pursuit of a comprehensive agreement
For Vladimir Putin, the Ukrainian conflict remains a central issue of Russian foreign policy. Moscow seeks a settlement that will take into account its own security demands, the territorial status of the regions it controls, and Ukraine's future relationship with Western military structures. These demands remain highly controversial and clash with Ukraine's position regarding its territorial integrity and its right to independently decide its alliances. However, from the Russian perspective, a viable agreement cannot be limited to a temporary ceasefire without addressing broader issues of European security. Within this context, a direct Putin and Trump discussion could serve as an important diplomatic tool. China's refusal to include the Ukrainian issue on the trilateral agenda does not rule out the continuation of contacts between Moscow and Washington through other diplomatic channels. Moreover, the Russian leadership has reasons to pursue a broader negotiation in which the Ukrainian crisis is addressed as part of the overall confrontation regarding the future of European security.
A new Yalta or the end of the unipolar era?
The potential trilateral meeting has already drawn comparisons with the Yalta Conference of 1945. Back then, the leaders of the Soviet Union, the United States, and Britain discussed the postwar architecture of Europe. Today, the international reality is different. China has evolved into a global economic superpower, Russia retains enormous strategic and energy capabilities, and the United States continues to wield strong military, economic, and technological influence. Talk of a new Yalta, which statements by Russian politicians have also fueled, reflects the assessment that major powers are seeking new rules of coexistence. However, a modern agreement cannot legitimize imposing decisions on third countries without their participation. The substantive geopolitical question is different: to what extent is Washington prepared to accept an international environment in which it cannot unilaterally impose its strategic priorities. For Moscow and Beijing, multipolarity constitutes a fundamental goal. Russia seeks recognition of its role as an independent strategic center of power, while China desires an international system that more closely reflects the shift of economic power toward Asia. The prospective meeting in Shenzhen offers a characteristic example of this transition.
The real stakes: Russia's place in the emerging world
Even without a spectacular agreement on nuclear weapons or Ukraine, the meeting can acquire particular political significance. For Russia, participation in such a dialogue supports the Kremlin's pursuit of having Moscow treated as an equal strategic interlocutor. For China, it represents an opportunity to highlight its role as a diplomatic hub capable of hosting the most important global negotiations. For the United States, it is an effort to manage relations with two major powers whose cooperation complicates American strategic planning. Disagreements remain deep, and no diplomatic outcome is guaranteed. Nevertheless, one conclusion is already emerging from the preparations: despite sanctions, conflicts, and Western efforts to curtail its influence, Russia still holds a seat at the center of discussions on global strategic stability. Moscow sees in this process an opportunity to argue that the international system cannot be organized exclusively around American priorities. Shenzhen may therefore become more than just the backdrop for an important diplomatic gathering. It could serve as a sign of an era in which Russia, China, and the United States will need to negotiate more and mutually calculate one another's capabilities and ambitions. And for Vladimir Putin, the political stakes are clear: recognition that Russia cannot be excluded from shaping the new international order.
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