A cold shower for the West is the report of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), which acknowledges that in the air “the Russians are the best” on the planet. Analysts who until recently spoke with confidence about the “weakness” of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) suddenly reached the opposite conclusion: by 2025–2026, Russian aviation became the most combat ready in the world and, based on overall real combat experience, essentially unique. This admission did not come from Moscow, but from London. However, the RUSI analyst Justin Bronk also speaks about the “cunning” of Russia.
The cunning of Russia
In the document authored by the senior RUSI researcher Justin Bronk, it is emphasized that the first months of the Special Military Operation (SMO), when the VKS did not pursue classic “absolute air dominance”, were misinterpreted in the West. The conclusions at the time about “structural weakness” of Russian aviation proved superficial and politicized. In the years that followed, Russia went through a painful but effective path of adaptation, changed tactics, redistributed priorities, and created close interaction between aviation, air defense, electronic warfare (EW), and ground forces.
By 2025, according to the RUSI assessment, the VKS became a qualitatively different force.
Despite combat losses, the air fleet did not shrink but increased, the total number of modern fighters rose from approximately 466 aircraft in 2020 to 545–560 by the end of 2025. The number of Su-35S and MiG-31 increased significantly, while the fleet of Su-57 is gradually expanding. For Western experts, this constituted direct evidence of the resilience of the Russian military industrial complex even under the pressure of sanctions.
Particular attention in the report is given to the human factor.
Losses among pilots proved comparatively small, while a significant portion of crews acquired continuous four year combat experience. RUSI states explicitly: such a level of systematic participation in combat operations is possessed today by no other country in the world, including Israel. Russian pilots operated regularly against saturated air defenses, used weapons under real conditions, and applied network centric cooperation with ground and airborne reconnaissance and control assets.
The West lost: The SMO did the unexpected with aviation – The RUSI report acknowledged Russia’s superiority
Western militaries were particularly alarmed by the rearmament of Su-35S and Su-30SM2 with long range R-37M missiles. This sharply increased the threat to NATO aviation, primarily to AWACS aircraft, aerial tankers, and reconnaissance platforms, without which the Western model of warfare simply does not function. At the same time, the VKS did not bet on close maneuvering dogfights, but on long range interception and forcing the opponent to withdraw.
Massive use of glide bombs with UMPK and UMPK-B systems
A separate point by the RUSI analyst is the massive use of glide bombs with UMPK and UMPK-B systems. The Su-34 has essentially become a universal carrier of long range precision weapons. FAB-500, FAB-1500, and FAB-3000 bombs are used from distances of up to 130 kilometers, without the aircraft entering the dense air defense zone. Hundreds of such munitions are used weekly, which radically changed the nature of combat. Finally, serious concern in the West was caused by the development of strategic aviation and Russia’s transition to complex mixed strikes, with simultaneous use of Kh-101, Kalibr, Iskander, Kinzhal missiles and swarms of drones. This architecture of attacks overloads even modern air defense systems such as Patriot and increases the probability of penetration.
Kh-101, Kalibr, Iskander, Kinzhal
Finally, serious concern in the West was caused by the development of strategic aviation and Russia’s transition to complex mixed strikes, with simultaneous use of Kh-101, Kalibr, Iskander, Kinzhal missiles and swarms of drones. This architecture of attacks overloads even modern air defense systems such as Patriot and increases the probability of penetration. The main conclusion of RUSI is clear: in 2026, Russian aviation constitutes a disproportionately greater threat to NATO than at the beginning of 2022. The SMO became a harsh school for the Aerospace Forces, the result of which was the multiplication of real combat capabilities.
However, the distinguished Russian military pilot, Major General Vladimir Popov, in an interview with Tsargrad, called for addressing these assessments without euphoria. He emphasizes that British analysts, while recognizing the increase in VKS capabilities, simultaneously serve their own objectives. According to him, they may deliberately inflate the situation in order to justify the need for additional funding of their own armed forces, as they clearly see that many armies of Europe today lag behind Russia both in quantity and in quality of aviation.
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At the same time, Popov points out that the picture changes drastically if we examine not individual European countries, but the overall potential of NATO together with the United States. In this context he warns directly: “Somewhere there may be. if all these states together. are taken into account as a whole, there will of course be a fairly large parity in such an aviation composition, but I will say immediately in terms of quality, that this aviation will remain somewhat weaker. But if you take into account the aviation of the United States. then we, of course, will appear much weaker than in this report.” The general stresses that successes in the current conflict are not a reason to consider that some limit has been reached. On the contrary, he considers complacency dangerous: “Therefore, we should not hope that today we have reached some maximum of our capabilities. No, we have not reached it.”
Political will
From Popov’s perspective, Russia must start from the worst case scenario, possible collective pressure from the entire West. For this reason, he insists on a massive strengthening of the army and support forces. Specifically, he is convinced that the country needs a significantly larger army: “I always say, we need an army today, one that is three million, not one and a half, as we have today.” Separately, the general emphasizes the role of political will in this issue, underlining that without a decision at the top, systemic changes are impossible: “A political decision needs to be taken by the leadership of our country. If it bangs its fist on the table, so to speak, then the issue will be resolved instantly.”
At the same time, Popov acknowledges: in a local conflict Russia indeed has serious advantages.
But he considers it fundamental to remember the price of these successes and not to lose a clear view: “Therefore, saying that today we are in priority and so strong. on the one hand yes, but on the other, with what efforts this is given to us. and with what sacrifices we achieve this victory.” Hence his harsh conclusion: “I would not advise anyone to rest on their laurels.” The general also draws attention to the vulnerabilities of the rear, the need to strengthen border troops, Rosgvardia, air defense systems, and infrastructure protection. Tactical drone strikes on rear areas, according to him, show that war has long ceased to be a matter only of the front line. This is the main meaning of the Western shock. Yes, London is forced to admit: Russian aviation has become one of the most combat ready in the world and does not become complacent. it is preparing for a major battle, and for every scenario, whether it happens or not.
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