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The "king" of Bitcoin brings a storm - Fears of a deep crypto winter

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The aggressive tactics of Saylor have always had skeptics within Wall Street circles

Until recently, Michael Saylor's strategy seemed unstoppable… He was selling shares of his company to frantically buy Bitcoin, accumulating roughly 800,000 coins. Now, however, as the stock of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) bends under the weight of the decline in digital assets, the structure is showing its first cracks. Following revelations by the Wall Street Journal regarding overvalued internal metrics and official confirmation of his first liquidations amounting to hundreds of millions, the market is holding its breath.

From software firm to the largest Bitcoin "hoarder"

Under Saylor’s guidance, Strategy underwent a radical transformation. From a traditional software firm, it evolved into what market analysts call the dominant "hoarder" of the leading cryptocurrency. His business plan relied on issuing and selling corporate stock and preferred titles, aiming to channel these funds directly into the acquisition of Bitcoin. This strategy bore fruit while the digital currency was recording last year's historic high of 120,000 dollars, offering Strategy investors returns that exceeded 60% over a five-year horizon. Currently, the company controls approximately 4% of the total available assets of Bitcoin globally. However, the recent downturn in cryptocurrencies has begun dragging down Strategy’s stock price, bringing the systemic vulnerabilities of this model to the surface.

The warnings from Wall Street

The aggressive tactics of Saylor have always had skeptics within Wall Street circles. Legendary short seller Jim Chanos had revealed on the "Risk and Return" podcast that since last year, he had begun shorting Strategy’s stock as part of an arbitrage trade. Concurrently, Bob Sloan, head of the reputable data firm S3 Partners—which is considered the "gold standard" for tracking institutional investor positions—had long been warning about the risk of a market blindly relying on a single buyer. As Sloan had characteristically emphasized, "continuous financing was required to sustain his purchases. No financing equates to forced sales." Given the volatility that characterizes Bitcoin, the moment this sole buyer would be forced to become a seller was merely a matter of time.

The WSJ disclosure

The warning bell rang louder following an extensive report in the Wall Street Journal. The investigation targeted the internal metrics used by Strategy, leaving clear insinuations that the company's stock was overvalued. This specific stock constituted the primary "currency" with which Saylor financed his Bitcoin buying barrage. Developments accelerated on Monday when Strategy filed an official document with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The news dropped like a bombshell: Saylor proceeded with the sale of 3,588 Bitcoin, netting more than 200 million dollars. Although this specific amount represents a very small fraction (sliver) of his total holdings, the symbolism of the move is immense. The man who stubbornly refused to sell was forced to back down to support his stock price.

Toward an extension of the "Crypto Winter"

For their part, fanatical supporters of the cryptocurrency downplay the event, insisting that the market is now much larger than Saylor and is backed by powerful institutional portfolios on Wall Street and long-term investors. However, reality shows that Saylor functioned as the marginal buyer who maintained the balance. If the current liquidation of 200 million dollars is not an isolated incident but the beginning of a broader cycle of forced sales, the 2.27 trillion dollar market could face severe turbulence. Instead of a gradual recovery next spring, the "crypto winter" now threatens to extend until next summer.

www.bankingnews.gr

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