Kyriakos Mitsotakis finds himself before a political paradox that he created himself.
For a decade he was the primary political advantage of New Democracy.
Now he risks becoming also the exclusive recipient of its erosion, as his numbers in many opinion polls show that he is following the fate of his party, having a downward trajectory.
When he was elected president of ND, in January 2016, the party came from a period of defeat, introversion, and questioning.
He himself, indeed, was not the favorite of the internal party contest.
He overturned the result of the first round and defeated Evangelos Meimarakis in the second round with a percentage of 52.43%.
Change of the mix
From there began something more than a change of leadership. The gradual transformation of ND began, from a party of traditional internal balances to a party of prime ministerial dominance.
Mitsotakis limited the influence of the old party geography, brought technocrats and officials from the reformist Center and the Simitis-wing PASOK, opened ND to audiences that had no historic ties with it, and ultimately occupied a political space wider than its traditional boundaries.
The electoral results vindicated this strategy.
From 28.10% in September 2015, ND reached 39.85% in 2019 and 40.56% in June 2023. They were not merely victories of a party.
It was the creation of a Mitsotakis-led electoral alliance with an audience that was far from the traditional base of ND.
This precise personal connection of the prime minister with the electoral course of ND constitutes today his major risk as well.
When political success is identified to such a large extent with one individual, the erosion of the government can hardly be attributed exclusively to individual ministers or circumstantial difficulties.
Responsibility, however, when the decline begins, returns as a bombshell to the leader himself.
The paradox of political dominance
Polling data capture this complex reality.
ND maintains the first position in this specific measurement, yet stands noticeably far from the levels of the electoral contests of 2019 and 2023.
The difference is not merely numerical.
It highlights the distance between the electoral dominance built in previous years and today's political reality.
First place does not automatically mean that the government possesses the same social momentum or that it has secured a return to the percentages that gave it a strong parliamentary majority.
The crucial question is to what extent Kyriakos Mitsotakis can regain the trust of voters who supported him, but today appear more hesitant.
Because political erosion is not measured solely by the strength of opponents.
It is measured also by the alienation of citizens who once formed the core of his electoral alliance.
The advantage that becomes a trap
The person-centered functioning of ND offered the prime minister the ability to largely control the political agenda, limit internal party challenges, and appear as the primary guarantor of government stability.
However, the same model today restricts the margins for distancing from the government's problems.
The more successes are credited personally to the prime minister, the more failures and governmental weaknesses are billed to him.
The difficult equation
Here lies the most difficult equation for New Democracy.
The political dominance of Mitsotakis continues to constitute a key element of its identity, but at the same time makes renewing its image difficult without questioning the very core of the leadership.
The question, therefore, is not only whether ND can maintain the first place in the polls.
It is whether it can regain the momentum that led it to great electoral victories, or whether it will remain trapped in a political reality where the leader's power and the government's erosion are two sides of the same coin.
Sole recipient of the bar
Mitsotakis built a party around his personal dominance.
Whether this choice will continue to constitute an advantage or will transform into the primary constraint of ND will be judged by his ability to reverse the erosion.
Because, when a leader becomes the strongest card of his party, he risks becoming the sole recipient of the political cost as well, particularly when setting the bar of his personal survival at 25%.
O Peiraiarchis
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