Commercial navigation through the Straits of Hormuz collapsed on Sunday to its lowest level in five weeks, as new military strikes between the United States and Iran, combined with ongoing attacks against vessels, intensified safety anxieties across one of the most critical energy maritime routes in the world. According to data from Kpler, just six commercial vessels transited the strategic Straits on Sunday with deactivated transponders, marking the lowest daily vessel traffic since the beginning of June and reflecting the growing caution gripping shipping corporations. The Straits of Hormuz represent a vital chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply, while also facilitating major liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Gulf nations.
Transit in the blind
Despite the noticeable reduction in traffic, several oil tankers continued to utilize this specific route. Among the vessels exiting the Straits was the supertanker Humanity, which carried approximately two million barrels of Iranian crude oil, as well as the tanker Capetan Andreas, transporting about 500,000 barrels of refined petroleum products from Kuwait. Concurrently, three empty tankers entered the Persian Gulf to load new cargoes. Most ships deactivated their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders while transiting the Straits, a practice increasingly adopted in high-risk zones to reduce the likelihood of targeting. According to publicly available vessel tracking data, no LNG carrier entered the Straits of Hormuz over the weekend. Separately, a tanker belonging to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company crossed the Straits between July 10 and 12 and is now heading toward the port of Dahej in India.
Chaos and US-Iran escalation
The drop in maritime activity followed a new round of American military strikes against Iran. U.S. Central Command announced that American forces struck dozens of Iranian military targets using precision-guided munitions. For his part, Donald Trump stated that commercial navigation continues to pass freely through the Straits of Hormuz. However, Iran insisted that it has closed the maritime route, claiming that a vessel moved on an unauthorized course before being attacked. The Revolutionary Guards announced on Monday that their naval forces halted two vessels in the Straits overnight, deactivating their electronic systems, without revealing their identities.
Global energy supply up in the air
The latest developments add to weeks of heightened volatility in the Persian Gulf region, where repeated attacks against commercial vessels have fueled fears of severe disruptions to the global energy supply. Even though oil exports continue, shipping companies remain highly cautious as insurance costs, security risks, and route planning become increasingly complicated. A prolonged reduction in tanker traffic through the Straits could constrict global energy availability, heavily impacting major Asian economies like China, India, Japan, and South Korea, which depend heavily on oil and LNG imports from the Persian Gulf. The significant retreat in shipping traffic indicates that maritime firms are now prioritizing safety over schedule adherence as the military confrontation between Washington and Tehran intensifies. Although neither side has completely halted commercial navigation, uncertainty over security conditions is prompting many shipowners and fleet managers to postpone voyages, alter routes where feasible, and limit transit through the narrow maritime passage. For international energy markets, the immediate impact remains manageable so far as exports persist. However, if the military clash intensifies or attacks against commercial ships rise, the repercussions could quickly translate into higher freight rates, increased shipping insurance premiums, and renewed sharp volatility in international oil and LNG prices.
New rally in oil prices
Brent crude rallied by approximately 4% on Monday, climbing close to 79 dollars per barrel and snapping a two-day losing streak as the new missile strikes between the United States and Iran over the weekend reignited anxieties over the safety of navigation in the Straits of Hormuz. Oil prices have rebounded from the previous week, as the resurgence of hostilities erased part of the losses recorded following the temporary de-escalation agreement between the United States and Iran, which had raised expectations for an increased Middle Eastern energy supply. The latest escalation has dampened hopes for a resumption of the diplomatic process. Tehran insists that Washington must first honor its previous commitments regarding free passage through the Straits and the normalization of Iranian oil exports before the two sides return to the negotiating table.
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